EXIT $NVDA WITH PROFIT RIGHT HERE AT $17.01

EXIT $AAP WITH PROFIT RIGHT HERE AT $39.35

EXIT $APT WITH PROFIT RIGHT HERE AT $4.18

EXIT $NVAX WITH PROFIT RIGHT HERE AT $2.61

EXIT $QGLY WITH PROFIT RIGHT HERE AT $2.05

EXIT $PAR WITH PROFIT RIGHT HERE AT $11.10

EXIT $WAG WITH PROFIT RIGHT HERE AT $36.48

EXIT $GCZ9 WITH PROFITS RIGHT HERE AT $1130. $GC_F, $GLD,

EXIT $ABX WITH PROFIT RIGHT HERE AT $39.52

LOWER THE STOP ON $PAR TO $11.35 TO PROTECT PROFIT

100 TRADE MILESTONE REACHED

Now we have completed 100 trades on this blog since 2007 using ZYX Change Method. There have been 94 winning trades and six losing trades. The average annualized return per trade is 214%.

We have published trade by trade performance, please click the link to read more about performance.

ADDED 10% POSITION SHORT TO $PAR SHORT AT $13.60, NOW 20% FULL POSITION SIZE SHORT

ADDING TO SHORT POSITION ON $PAR RIGHT HERE AT $12.49. WE WILL ADD MORE IF IT GOES HIGHER.

ADD TO $NVDA SHORT SELL POSITION

On December 7, 2009 we lightly scaled in a short with a 5% full position size at $15.18. Since then, the stock has moved up as high as $18.95 based on rumors that $INTC will buy them. Such rumors make absolutely no sense. $INTC is already fighting Department of Justice on anti trust grounds. Considering $INTC's present intellectual property in graphics chip sets, we see major hurdles to any buyout of $NVDA.

We will scale in another 10% in the range of $18.50 to $19.10. If stock goes higher, we will become more aggressive in accumulating a larger short position. Time to be aggressive is not yet here as our proprietary money flow indicators continue to show strong accumulation.

STATUS OF FLU STOCKS

Over the last few days, these stocks have moved up and we have given up some gains. Nothing has changed in our thesis and ZYX Change Method Screens continue to be negative. We are short on $NVAX from $3.43, $BCRX from $8.67 and $APT from $5.25. We will consider adding to our short positions on further up spikes. We will also short sell $SVA, $RVP and $QDEL on up spikes or on technical breakdowns.

TAKING ALMOST 900% PROFITS ON $PPC

We have been long on $PPC with an average of $0.98. We still think that the stock has room to go higher, but we will stick with the discipline of ZYX Change Method and exit the trade right here at $8.99.

We will reenter the trade again on dips if ZYX screens are supportive.

WE ARE SHORT ON $MHS FROM $64.50 AND $ESRX FROM $88.60. WILL ADD ON SPIKES UP.

UPDATE ON OUR $PPC POSITION

Co announced that it and six of its subsidiaries have emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after a 13-month restructuring. In connection with its emergence, the company has entered into a $1.75 bln exit credit facility. The exit credit facility is secured by substantially all of the company's assets. Under the plan of reorganization, all creditors and its debtor subsidiaries holding allowed claims will be paid in full as soon as practicable. In the case of bondholders, payment will be made either through reinstatement of the bonds or in accordance with the holder's previous election of a cash-out option. Under the terms of the confirmed plan, all of the shares of the company's common stock outstanding immediately prior to the effective date of the plan were cancelled and converted on a one-for-one basis into the right to receive new shares of the reorganized company. The reorganized company issued 64% of its common stock to JBS USA Holdings, Inc. in exchange for $800 mln in cash. The remaining 36% of the common stock of the reorganized company was issued to stockholders existing immediately prior to the effective date. Proceeds from the sale of the common stock of reorganized Pilgrim's Pride to JBS are being used to fund cash distributions to unsecured creditors. The reorganized company's common stock will begin trading tomorrow on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "PPC."

SHORT SELL $PAR

The stock has run up on speculation in Barron's that the stock is a take over candidate. We do not believe that there are any buyers for this stock. Aggressive accounts may consider a short right here around $11.85 for a short term trade. Of course, there is a possibility we are wrong and the stock is taken out; there fore conservative accounts should not follow this recommendation.

All of ZYX Change Method Screens are supportive of this trade.

TRIGGER FOR SHORT SALE ON PHARMACY BENEFIT MANAGERS, $MHS, $ESRX

On Nov5, 2009, we wrote on this blog, "The next question is what to do with $MHS and $ESRX stocks. $MHS and $ESRX are clearing capturing market share by being aggressive on price. There is the age old question, how do higher volumes at lower margins work out. At this time we do not have enough data to construct a model that we can be confident of. However, we can not run away from the simple twin realities. First the Wall Street is uniformly bullish on these stocks and believes there advantage will continue forever. Second if Obama's health care IT vision comes true, and all medical records are electronic and everyone in the business is interconnected, the next step is for the technology to disintermediate the likes of $MHS and $ESRX. In a nut shell, we agree with the Wall Street in the intermediate term but see Wall Street's bullishness as an opportunity to short these stocks in the very long term."

Since then the stocks have moved up as the Senate bill failed to include the provisions that would have adversely affected these stocks. This up move is now providing an opportunity to start scaling in short positions in MHS and ESRX tomorrow on spikes up.

ZYX Change Method requires a trigger event to initiate an entry. Caterpillar is providing the trigger in the news that it will directly steer its 120,000 employees to Walmart and Walgreen bypassing PBMs. The most important part of the news is complete price transparency. This flies in the face of business model of PBMs that depende on opaque pricing. Running this news through ZYX Change Method Screens shows that the probability of large employers either following Caterpillar or demanding price transparency from PBMs is very high.

MERRY CHRISTMAS

Merry Christmas to all. I am especially thankful to those who have followed The Arora Report, encouraged me, sent me emails, retweeted and helped with further refinement of the ZYX Change Method.

TAKING ADDITIONAL PARTIAL PROFITS ON GOLD $GCZ9 RIGHT HERE AT $1090.8 AND ON $ABX AT $38.28, $GLD, $GC_F

WE WILL MAINTAIN OUR SHORT POSITION ON $WAG (WALGREEN)

We have substantial gains in our $WAG position. $WAG reported earnings this morning. Stock was up $2 pre-market and now it is down over $1. Based on a review of earnings, our thesis has not changed.

TAKE MORE PARTIAL PROFITS ON $ABX RIGHT HERE AT $39.85 AND TIGHTEN THE STOPS ON $ABX AND ALSO ON $GCZ9

TAKING PARTIAL PROFITS ON GOLD $GCZ9 RIGHT HERE AT $1111.6 $GC_F

$BTIM (BIO TIME)HAS HIT OUR TARGETS

Exit the entire short position right here at $4.25.

LOCK IN PROFITS ON $BTIM

As per our earlier tweet, we are short on BTIM from $5.17. Aggressive accounts may want to lock in some profits here at $4.75. Next targets are $4.61 and $4.31

EXITED $APOL WITH A VERY NICE PROFIT AS THE PROTECTIVE STOP HIT AT $55.66

700% PROFIT ON PGPDQ (PILGRIM PRIDE) AND STILL HOLDING AS A MAJOR MILESTONE IS REACHED

Our average is $0.98 and our target is around $10

The United States Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Texas has approved the amended joint plan of reorganization of the Company and six of its subsidiaries that are debtors and debtors in possession in the Chapter 11 cases pending before the court. Pilgrim's Pride said that it expects to emerge from bankruptcy before the end of December.

The stock has moved up to $7.10

TAKE PROFITS IN $VCI

As per our morning tweet, we are long on VCI from $17.50. Now it is time to take profits right here at $19.14 and exit the position. Our fund flow screen has turned negative.

TIGHTEN STOP ON $APOL TO $55.66 TO LOCK IN SUBSTANTIAL PROFITS

CONSIDER EXITING $HEB (HEMISPHERX BIOPHARMA) WITH LARGE PROFITS RIGHT HERE AT $0.61

CONSIDER TAKING PARTIAL PROFITS ON $ABX RIGHT HERE AT $40.84

CONSIDER TAKING MORE PARTIAL PROFITS ON GOLD, $GCZ9 AROUND $1131

SHORT SELL ON $NVDA (NVIDIA)

$NVDA has spiked higher on $INTC (INTEL) news. The INTEL news will have no material positive impact on $NVDA's numbers over the next 4 quarters. Consider lightly scaling in shorts right here at $15.18 and short more if the stock continues to spike higher. Investors are clearly misunderstanding the news.

OUR $APOL (APOLLO) SHORT SELL TRADE AT A CRITICAL JUNCTURE

Recent Department of Education's draft rules related to incentive compensation have met with a mixed reaction. Credit Suisse is cautious. Piper thinks it is manageable. Wedbush calls it slightly negative. Our take on fundamental basis remains negative. The draft rules recommend elimination of 12 exceptions to a 1992 law that barred for profit colleges from paying admission officers based on the number of students they enrolled. We believe that, if enacted, these rules will eliminate the boiler room environment and reduce enrolment.

Technicians have been taking comfort from the rounding bottom formation on the chart. However, on a break below $54.55 this formation will be invalid and may result in stops getting hit. Our plan is to add to our short position on a break of $54.55, hunt for the stops, and use our Fund Flow screen to guide us to take some short term profits as the stock may rebound after stops are taken out. We will maintain our original core position.

TRAIL STOPS ON $GCZ9, AND $ABX.

$GCZ9 is at $1143 and $ABX is at $41.95. We have substantial profits. ZYX Change Method trade management guidelines dictate that stops be closely trailed. Do not let profits slip away but still allow room for further gains.

TAKING MORE PARTIAL PROFITS ON $GCZ9 AT $1151.90, $GLD

TAKING MORE PROFITS ON $GCZ9 AT $1170 AND TIGHTENING STOPS ON THE REST, $GLD,

TAKING PARTIAL PROFITS ON $ABX

We are short on $ABX from $45.60. Consider taking partial profits at $43.05 with tight stop on the rest.

TAKING PARTIAL PROFITS ON GOLD, $GCZ9, $GLD,

We are short on $GCZ9 from $1196. Consider taking partial profits right here at $1178 with a tight stop on the rest.

SELLING SHORT $ABX ON BOUNCES WITH TIGHT STOPS

SELLING SHORT GOLD ON BOUNCES WITH TIGHT STOPS IF DOLLAR COOPERATES $GLD, $GCZ9,

IN VIEW OF THE VERY POSITIVE EMPLOYMENT REPORT, TIGHTENING STOPS ON ALL OF OUR SHORT POSITIONS $$

ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE BEEN AHEAD OF THE CROWD ON COAL STOCKS $KOL, $CNX, $BTU , $$

We have been negative on coal stocks for a while. Now there appears to be a wider recognition of the fundamental reasons as evidenced by the following excerpts from an article in WSJ today:

The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. coal stockpiles are climbing as supplies outpace demand from utilities and factories. The glut means miners will have to slash output, compounding the industry downdraft and pointing toward depressed prices and possibly layoffs as miners continue to grapple with uncertainty over climate legislation. Overseas markets can offer a buffer for some miners, however. Meanwhile, less-expensive coal helps hold down inflationary pressure for customers, which include utilities and steelmakers, and gives the economy the benefit of cheaper power. Despite a recent slight pickup in industrial activity across the U.S. economy, coal prices remain depressed in the major coal-producing areas, from underground mines in West Virginia to big open-pit mines in Wyoming. The benchmark price for Central Appalachian coal, which makes up 20% of U.S. production, is roughly $54 dollars a ton, down from $111 a year ago. The benchmark price for Powder River Basin coal, mostly from Wyoming and accounting for 40% of U.S. production, is about $8.25 a ton, compared with $14.50 dollars a year ago. Appalachian coal generally yields more energy than that from the West. Mild weather this summer and switching by utilities to low-cost natural gas for fuel has contributed to lower coal use. That led to mountains of coal at electricity producers. Coal stockpiles at utilities, the biggest consumers of coal in the U.S., hit 199.7 million tons in September, up 37% from a year earlier, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration

STOPS HIT FOR EXIT WITH PROFIT ON $GCZ9 AT $1161

In the overnight trade $GCZ9 did hit $1130. Those who had vigorously followed our methodology should have had orders in $1130 range and should have generated very large profits.

CONSIDER TAKING PARTIAL PROFITS ON GOLD $GLD, $GCZ9, $GC_F

$GCZ9 is now trading at $1154 giving us a fair amount of profit. We suggest using technicals and movement of EUR/USD to pinpoint targets for partial profit taking. Based on the information available now, partial profits should be taken in the range of $1130 to $1137 or higher if technicals warrant it. Tighten the stops on core position.

MORE SHORT SELL ON GCZ9 AT $1191, $GLD, $GC_F

Our methodology dictated more short sale on the spike up. Unless our indicators change, the plan is to continue lightly scaling in until $1220 and partially cover on pullbacks while maintaining a core short position.

SELL ON $EPI (WISDOM TREE INDIA ETF)

Hype from Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Washington is at a peak. We will take advantage and sell the position in $EPI around $21.88

AGRESSIVELY ADDED TO SHORT POSITION ON $MDT (MEDTRONICS) AT $43.60

$MDT (Medtronics) earnings were better than expected, however a review of the earnings report does not change our medium term thesis. Unless our methodology tells us otherwise, we will use spikes up to add to our short position.

IT IS TIME TO SHORT SELL SWINE FLU STOCKS $$

According to CDC, second wave of swine flu has peaked. This is the trigger screen in the ZYX Change Method. Quantitative Analysis Screen, Technical Analysis Screen, and Funds Flow Screen are all negative. However, these stocks are very short term over sold. Therefor, it is prudent to patiently wait for bounces to short sell them.

the stocks on our list are $QDEL, $BCRX, $NVAX, $SVA, $APT, $RVP, $HEB.

SCALED IN MORE SHORT SELL ON GOLD AT $1170.70 $GLD, $GCZ9, $GC_F

Will scale in more if it goes higher.

110% GAIN ON $UYG (ULTRA FINANCIALS PROSHARES)

This blog has been long on UYG from average price of $2.50. ZYX Change Method technical screen has turned negative. Exit the entire position right here at $5.75

SHORT SELL ON GOLD AGAIN $GLD $GC_F

As per last post, lightly scaled in short sell on gold GCZ9 at 1165.8. Following ZYX Change Method trade management guidelines to control risk.

Our proprietary fund flow indicators are negative foe a very short term trade.

EXITED GOLD POSITION WITH PROFIT AS STOP HIT $GLD ,$GCZ9

Based on the ZYX Change Method, the stop on the rest of the GCZ9 hit at $1137. Again the position exited with profit. Now, we have no position in gold, but are inclined to short it again tomorrow on spikes up in the range of $1155 to 1175, with tight stop.

WE NOW HAVE $33 PROFIT ON GOLD, GCZ9

Aggressive accounts may lock in more profits right here at $1130 while maintaining the core position with stops per the ZYX Change Method.

OUR PREDICTION OF GAP DOWN OPEN ON GOLD HAS PROVEN CORRECT. $GLD, $GCZ9

Please refer to our last post for the reasons behind predicting gap down on gold. At $1136, we have $17 profit. In keeping with the ZYX Change Method, we suggest taking partial profit around $1136 to $1137, tight stop on rest of non core position and a wider stop on the core position.

THE POINT OF THIS BLOG IS TO BE AHEAD OF THE CROWD

In response to the comment on why we are short gold, the point of this blog is to be ahead of the crowd. Long gold is a crowded trade with lots of late comers to the paty. Our proprietary fund flow indicators are once again negative indicating that the smart money is selling into the strength. With the exception of the technical screen, all other screens of the ZYX Change Method are negative.

In our earlier post, we cautioned about hilding the short position overnight due to high gap risk. Lately prices in the elecrtonic trading after the floor trading closes have had a very high correlation to the next day g higher gap openings. Based on the price action after the close, the risk of higher gap tomorrrow is less than we originally thought. Aggressive accounts may consider staying short overnight in anticipation of a lower gap opening.

RUSSIA TO SELL GOLD

Russia's Kudrin says state repository to sell 30 tonnes of gold to C. Bank before year-end at market price. From Reuters.

SHORT SELL ON GOLD $GLD, $GCZ9

Short again on $GCZ9 from $1153 based on ZYX Change Method. Please see prior posts for details.

Risk control is a very important aspect of the ZYX Change Method. Stop at $1156 and we will not carry it overnight due to high gap risk.

EXITED GOLD TRADE WITH PROFIT,$GCZ9, $GLD

Stop hit and took out GCZ9 position at $1105. This trade illustrates the power of the trade management methodology of the ZYX Change Method, especiaaly for very short term trades. The trade generated substantial profits and now we are free to enter the trade again.

TAKE MORE PARTIAL PROFITS IN GOLD AT $1103., BUT MAINTAIN THE CORE POSITION. $GLD, $GCZ9

Tighten the stops on the core position.

SPECULATION ON $NTGR (NETGEAR) IS BASED ON LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

In the aftermath of the acquisition of $COMS (3Com), $NTGR (Netgear) is running. The buyers of $NTGR apparently have only superficial knowledge of $NTGR and $COMS. There are vast differences in the intellectual property of the two companies. We can not see $NTGR acquisition providing strategic advantage to any major technology player.

All of the ZYX Change Method screens with the exception of Funds Flow Screen are showing a short sell. If the Funds Flow Screen turns negative, short sell $NTGR.

TAKE PARTIAL PROFITS ON GOLD $GCZ9 AT $1107.2, BUT MAINTAIN THE CORE POSITION. $GLD

NEW UPDATE ON ALLOCATION MODELS

Please visit www.TheAroraReport.com for details.

TIGHTEN STOP ON GOLD AT BREAK EVEN, $GLD, $GCZ9

SHORT SELL ON GOLD $GLD, $GCZ9.

As per our earlier post we are short on $GCZ9 from $11.17.

GOLD MAY BE SETTING UP FOR A SHORT SELL, $GLD, $GCZ9

If the movement in the dollar is supportive after the release of weekly unemployment claims, consider a short sell on gold.

BUY ON $BRCD (BROCADE)

In the aftermath of $HPQ buying $COMS (3Com), speculative money is coming out of $BRCD. Further, this morning there are several broker downgrades. We will take advantage of this downdraft and slowly scale in more buys if the stock falls further.

ADDITIONAL BUY ON $BRCD (BROCADE).

In the aftermath of $COMS (3COM) by $HPQ (Hewlett Packard), $BRCD is trading lower in the after market. The reason for this down draft is that some people speculated that $HPQ would buy $BRCD.

There are plenty of other strategic buyers for $BRCD. We are adding to the existing $BRCD position right here at $8.63.

PLEASE DISREGARD THE LAST POST ON $BRCD (BROCADE).

Apparently the reason for cancellation is that David Stevens is unable to travel.

ADD TO $BRCD (BROCADE) LONG.

Based on ZYX Method in earlier post, there is a long position on $BRCD from $8.60. $BRCD just cancelled out of the Goldman conference. We will add to the position in the range of $9.00 to $9.20.

NEGATIVE FUND FLOWS IN GOLD FUTURES, $GCZ9, $GLD

Our thesis to short gold for a very short term trade based on the ZYX Change Method screens has not changed. The short position was exited as part of our risk control.

Our proprietary fund flows screen is beginning to show negative fund flows. If this continues and confirmed by ZYX Method technical screen, we will consider short sale on gold again

EXITED $CVS (CVS CAREMARK) WITH PROFIT.

As per the plan,exited $CVS (CVS Caremark) at $30.69 with profits.

OUT OF GOLD TRADE WITH PROFIT, $GCZ9, $GLD.

As per the plan from yesterday, exited 5% at $1103. and the rest at $1100.

MANAGEMENT OF THE GOLD TRADE, $GCZ9, $GLD.

On very short term trades, the difference between making money and losing money is trade management. Based on the ZYX Change Method trade management guidelines, 5% short should have been scaled in at $1082.5 and another 5% at $1100. The method suggested aggressively shorting just below $1105. and a stop zone starting just above $1105. However, the market did not cooperate as gold futures gaped higher. Based on the methodology an aggressive short position of 50% is taken at $1111. with a tight stop zone starting at $1115. Based on the price action, it is prudent to start scaling out exits around $1103. If the gold does not fall under $1103, then the complete position should be exited under $1106.

LONG ON $CVS (CVS CAREMARK)

As per our earlier post, we are long $CVS from $28.56 based on our funds flow screen being overwhelming positive. The scale in is only 20% of the full position.The stock did not go lower to build a full position.

Our trade management plan is to take the profits based on our fund flows and technical screens, and then patiently wait for the stock to go lower to reenter

IMPLICATIONS OF $CVS (CVS CAREMARK) LOSS OF PBM CONTRACTS

$CVS on earnings conference call this morning highlighted that $CVS expects $4.5Billion in PBM contract losses. Big customer losses are Chrysler, State of NJ, and Coventry. Further, the company expects $1.7Billion loss from Medicare Part D.

There are significant implications here presenting themselves to long term investors.

Clearly $MHS (Medco Health) and $ESRX (Express Scripts) are taking share away from $CVS. The perception in the market place is that scripts costs more from a retail/mail PBM model. Theoretically retail/PBM model of $CVS should offer competitive advantage over pure mail PBM model of $ESRX and $MHS. Our ZYX Change Analysis validates the theoretical advantage. The ZYX Change Analysis also shows that to capture the theoretical advantage $CVS needs to differentiate itself in the market place in a manner that adds value. Clearly $CVS is failing to execute such a model of differentiation.

Our ZYX Method's Quantitative Analysis Screen shows that at $27.00 per share, PBM business of $CVS is being priced at 50% discount. In the long run either the present management at $CVS will either start to execute to capture the theoretical advantage or it will be ousted and the new management will either execute better or simply separate PBM business from the retail business. In any case the value will be unlocked.

The investors with long term horizon may consider scaling in $CVS stock if the stock falls further. We will use ZYX Method's Technical Analysis Screen and Fund Flows Screen to pinpoint exact entry points.

Those interested in hedging or pair trades may consider a short on $WAG (Walgreen). Today $WAG is going higher as the money coming out of $CVS is going into $WAG. $WAG will continue to post good numbers for the next two quarters because of H1N1 flu season. We see the flu season only as a short term advantage and expect $WAG to disappoint on the downside in the summer of 2010. Thus if $WAG goes higher it will be appropriate to consider a short for long term accounts.

The next question is what to do with $MHS and $ESRX stocks. $MHS and $ESRX are clearing capturing market share by being aggressive on price. There is the age old question, how do higher volumes at lower margins work out. At this time we do not have enough data to construct a model that we can be confident of. However, we can not run away from the simple twin realities. First the Wall Street is uniformly bullish on these stocks and believes there advantage will continue forever. Second if Obama's health care IT vision comes true, and all medical records are electronic and everyone in the business is interconnected, the next step is for the technology to disintermediate the likes of $MHS and $ESRX. In a nut shell, we agree with the Wall Street in the intermediate term but see Wall Street's bullishness as an opportunity to short these stocks in the very long term.

INDIA BUYS 200 TONS OF GOLD ($GLD, $GC_F)

Gold has spiked on the news that Reserve Bank of India bought 200 tons of gold from IMF. On October 26, 2009 we reduced gold allocation to zero in our Multi Asset Global Allocation Model. At that time, we knew that IMF was planning to sell 400 tons of gold. This information was the
Trigger Event in our changing gold allocation to zero. We did contemplate that India, China and Brazil were the likely buyers. At this time, we do not know who is the buyer of the remaining 200 tons and the price paid.

We were of the opinion that the buyer will likely pay around $1020. $1045 purchase price has surprised us and shows eagerness of India to diversify its reserves into hard assets. Since our allocation model is a longer term model, we need to keep this purchase in perspective in the sense that even at this top dollar price, the total purchase price is about $7 billion. This is not material relative to India's foreign exchange reserves.

As per our methodology, we will be carefully watching money flows into gold and the price action at various micro resistance and support levels. If the data is strong enough we may need to admit our mistake and add gold again to the portfolio model.

As a very short term trade, for aggressive accounts, short on gold right here around $1082. with more scaling in up to $1105. is worthy of consideration. For the purpose of this blog we will take this trade with stop band over $1105. and target band of $1052 to $1030.

HATE MAIL ON UPDATES TO ALLOCATION MODELS

On Oct 26,2009, we increased short allocation on our Equities Long Short Allocation Model.

On Oct 26, we also reduced allocations to oil, gold, copper and emerging markets to zero.

Yesterday, Dow Jones Average went up 200 points, oil went up, gold went up and emerging markets went up strongly. We received a lot of hate mail from bullish traders.

Today Dow Jones Average at the time of this writing is down 235 points, oil is down and gold is down; but no fan mails from the traders who sent us hate mails yesterday.

We want to make two points.

First, these are longer term models and not designed to capture daily fluctuations. For those interested in daily fluctuations, we offer as a service a Short Term Trading model. At times, we also post very short term ZYX Method trades on this blog.

Second, these allocation models are designed to maximize alpha over long term and NOT for the purpose of maximizing absolute returns in a specified time period

CONSIDER TAKING PROFITS AND EXITING THE REST OF GRMN (GARMIN) RIGHT HERE AT $31

CONSIDER TAKING PARTIAL PROFITS ON $GRMN (GARMIN)

Per our earlier post, those following ZYX methodology, should have scaled in a 25% short sale on $GRMN around $39.20. Unfortunately price did not spike any higher to build a full position.

Today, the competitor $Tom Tom reported much worse than expected earnings. In sympathy, $GRMN shares are down to $33.80. We continue to be negative on $GRMN. However, $Tom Tom's earnings were not as bad as they seem on the surface. $Tom Tom was affected significantly by currency translation. $GRMN is not likely to have unexpected currency translation adverse affects when it reports its earnings. In keeping with our methodology consider taking partial profits right here at $33.80 and tightening the stop band on the rest.

Consider selling the stock short again if its price spikes up.

INTERMEDIATE TERM S&P TIMING MODEL HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED

Since August 2009 this model has not performed . In this period, the market has been liquidity driven and the model clearly does not perform in such a markert. This model is being discarded.

GLOBAL EQUITY LONG SHORT ALLOCATION UPDATE HAS BEEN POSTED ON www.TheAroraReport.com

MUTI-ASSET GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION UPDATE HAS BEEN POSTED ON www.TheAroraReport.com

CONSIDER BUYING $HGSI (HUMAN GENOME SCIENCES) ON DIPS ON ANTHRAX NEWS

$HGSI stock is dipping in the premarket on the news that FDA says its anthrax drug may not work. Our analysis shows that the anthrax drug is not material to the future of this company. The stock price has risen due to the success of the Lupus drug. Any large dips will be an over reaction and present a buying opportunity.

STOPPED OUT WITH PROFIT OUT OF THE REMAINING $CNX (CONSOL ENERGY) POSITION AT $47. 81

CONSIDER TAKING MORE PROFITS ON $CNX (CONSOL ENERGY) RIGHT HERE AT $48.50

Consider scaling out as the stock goes lower.

TAKE PARTIAL PROFITS ON $CNX (CONSOL ENERGY)

We have been short on $CNX based on the coal shipment data. Our thesis has proven correct as this morning $CNX reported lower than expected earnings and volumes. In view of the generally bullish overall market and especially the commodities, consider taking partial profits right here at $49.30 and tighten the stop band on the rest

STOPPED WITH PROFIT OUT OF THE REST OF $AMGN (AMGEN) AT $56.10

SHORT ON $CNX (CONSOL ENERGY)

As per our earlier post regarding coal shipment data on the rail roads, our methodology dictated short sell on $CNX from $52.80 as the price pattern appeared to start a double top.

$AMGN IS APPROACHING THE SUPPORT AREA, MORE SCALE OUT AT $55.90

CONTINUE SCALING OUT OF $AMGN AS THE STOCK FALLS

Consider scaling out more $AMGN right here around $56.42

$AMGN ( AMGEN ) EARNINGS PROVE OUR LONGSTANDING THESIS CORRECT.

We have been short on $AMGN. Details in the earnings report prove our thesis to be correct. However in view of the generally bullish market, we suggest taking partial profits right here at $56.92 and tightening the stop band on the rest. Consider exiting the position by scaling out.

$BSX (BOSTON SCIENTIFIC) EARNINGS CONFIRM OUR SHORT SELL THESIS

We have been short on $MDT (Medtronics) with the first scale in at $36.20 and more aggressive entry at $38.00. $BSX earnings show weakness in both stents and implantable cardiac devices. Going forward guidance for US is quite a bit lower than expected.

This confirms our thesis and we will stay short on $MDT.

CONSIDER EXITING $NUVA (NUVASIVE) RIGHT HERE AT $43.50 AS THE STOCK HAS REACHED OUR TARGET FOT THIS VERY SHORT TERM TRADE

OUT OF THE REMAINING $INTC (INTEL) SHORT POSITION WITH A PROFIT

The plan was to keep on lowering the stops and progressively tightening them. As INTC approached $20, it was either going to spike down through it on panic selling or bounce higher, thus making a tight stop at $20.11 lot of sense. The stop hit and the trade is done.

RAISE STOPS ON $NUVA (NUVASIVE)

TAKE MORE PROFITS ON $INTC (INTEL) SHORT POSITION RIGHT HERE AT $20.56 AND TIGHTEN THE STOPS ON THE REST

WOW! FDA AGREES WITH OUR LONGSTANDING ASSESSMENT OF FAMPRIDINE-SR , SHORT SELL $ACOR (ACORDIA) PER OUR PRIOR POST

TAKE PARTIAL PROFITS AND TIGHTEN STOP BAND ON $NUVA (NUVASIVE)

Per earlier note we are long on $NUVA from $40.30. Take partial profits right here at $42.30 and tighten the stop band.

TAKE MORE PARTIAL PROFITS ON $INTC HERE AT $20.88 AND TIGHTEN THE STOP ON THE REST

TAKE MORE PARTIAL PROFITS ON $INTC RIGHT HERE AT $21.12 AND TIGHTEN THE STOPS

ACOR (ACORDIA) FAMPRIDINE IS NOT A VERY GOOD DRUG EVEN IF IT WORKS AS ADVERTISED

The FDA Peripheral and Central Nervous System Drugs Advisory Committee meets today to review ACOR's Fampridine-SR for improvement of walking in patients with multiple sclerosis .

We have been negative on ACOR from the very beginning of Fampridine saga because even if the drug works as ACOR promotes, it is not a very good drug. Moreover, the number of participants in ACOR studies have been relatively small compared to what we think it should be to fully evaluate the risk of seizures. We also think the studies are flawed in how they measure the walking ability. Measurement of anything in MS patients is subjective at best in the first place.

ACOR is a highly promotional company and fund flows have been consistently positive, therefore we have been reluctant to issue a sell signal.

No matter how FDA review comes out, this stock should be sold short. If the review is positive, consider shorting on spikes up. Our ultimate target is $5.

SHORT ON INTC (INTEL)

As per our earlier post, we are short on INTC from $21.85. Take partial profits right here at $21.36 and take more profits if the stock goes lower. Tighten the stop.

$CSX COMMENTARY IS NEGATIVE FOR COAL STOCKS

$CSX is a major rail carrier for coal to utilities. The commentary with earnings is negative for coal stocks. Consider opportunistically short selling with tight stops $CNX, $BTU, $ACI, and $MEE. Our other screens are bearish on coal stocks.

INTC (INTEL) SHORT LEVELS

In response to questions, if INTC spikes up , we will consider short selling as the stock approaches $22 and stop over $23. Of course these are the levels for a perfect trade, which is not likely. We will consider shorting at lower levels depending on details of the earnings, guidance and how the stock trades.

$NUVA ( NUVASIVE ) PRESENTS A SHORT TERM TRADING OPPORTUNITY

NUVA stock has been down today on rumors that JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) will announce a lateral fusion device in the post earnings conference call. JNJ web site shows that the head of its device business will be on the call indicating there may be some truth to the rumor.

NuVasive's main business is lateral fusion devices.

If there is no competing device on JNJ call, NUVA is a short term buy, otherwise it is short. The early bird catches the worm; consider listening to the call and immediately entering the position

$INTC (INTEL) IS SELL THE NEWS STORY

INTEL reports earnings next week. Commentary from the Wall Street is almost universally positive.

In the middle of this bullishness, our screens, especially fund flows, show that the smart money is selling into strength.

If the earnings are good, the probability is that the good earnings are the result of replenishing inventory and building additional inventory ahead of Windows 7 launch and the holiday season. If the earnings are not good in this boom inventory build up time, it is a indication of slowing demand compared to anticipation.

It appears the profitable trade will be on the short side if the earnings and guidance are better than expected and the stock price spikes up. If the earnings and guidance are worse than expected, the trade is obviously on the short side. If the earnings and guidance are same as expected then there is no trade.

We need to be careful in shorting because seasonality typically means strength for
semiconductors and the overall tape is strong. Consider hedging the position with $SMH.

CONSIDER SHORT SELL ON MDT (MEDTRONICS)

Consider start scaling in a short position in MDT right here at $36.20. MDT had passed all of our screens for a short sale, but we had been waiting for a trigger that the market pays attention to before entering the trade. Patience in entering short sales is especially important when the overall tape is ripping.

Today STJ forecast significantly lower revenues and confirmed our earlier checks that hospitals have been reducing inventory of the medical devices they carry. Now we have the trigger and will add to our short position on spikes up.
Various health reform bills have provisions of additional taxes on medical devices. Careful attention needs to be paid to the movement of this issue in the congress as this may cause considerable volatility. Those concerned with lower risk may consider tight stops and renter the positions on spikes up.

Those interested in hedging may consider a pair trade by going long on STJ. STJ has already fallen quite a bit and periodically takeover rumors run the stock up

CONSIDER BUYING $BRCD (BROCADE) ON DIPS

According to WSJ $BRCD has put itself up for sale. $BRCD is not only synergistic but can also be strategic to a number of large technology players. A potential acquisition is likely to be north of $11.50.

Consider accumulating $BRCD on dips.

EXITED $CLZ9 WITH PROFITS WHEN STOP HIT AT $69.

TAKE PARTIAL PROFITS ON OIL

Take partial profits on $CLZ9 right here at $68.80 and keep tight stops on the rest.

AGAIN SHORT ON OIL

Short sold $CLZ9, oil futures, per the last post at $71.02. Added this morning at $70.30. Keep tight stops.

OBAMA COMMENTS ON IRAN IN 5 MINUTES, LOOK FOR OIL SHORT ENTRY

OIL STOPS HIT FOR PROFIT

Stops hit on CLZ9 at $69.65. As we indicated yesterday, it was a very short term trade and we managed it successfully , almost perfectly.

Our thesis has not changed and will look to reenter the trade on spikes up with tight stop

CONSIDER TIGHTENING STOPS ON OIL $CLZ9, $UCO, $USO

We have additional shorts on CLZ9 from 71. 70 and 71.44. Now CLZ9 is at 69.69. If you went with UCO , you should have additional shorts from $11.65 and 11.45.

Consider tightening stops to lock in profits

CONSIDER SCALING ADDITIONAL SHORTS ON SPIKES UP IN OIL

Oil has moved higher today while our fund flow analysis still leans toward the short side. Moreover dollar is stronger. Consider continuing to scale in short positions on spikes up, but keep tight stops.

The other impetus for rise in oil today is pessimism surrounding nuclear talks with Iran. It appears this pessimism is unwarranted as Iran's stance seems to be softening.

AVERAGE EXIT PRICE FOR $SSO IS $34.12

This was intended to be a very short term trade and market gave us opportunity to exit with a decent profit.

TIGHEN STOPS ON $SSO

We are short $SSO from $34.70. Take partial profits as it goes lower and keep tight trailing stops on the rest.

CONSIDER SHORT SELL ON OIL

As a very short term trade, consider short sell on oil futures. Consider start scaling in CLZ9 right here at $70.92. Those not comfortable with futures may consider short sell on $UCO right here at $11.32. Keep tight stops.

Impetus for the start of today's rally was bigger than expected draw down in gasoline inventories. Our analysis shows that the last point and a half is short covering.

CONSIDER SHORT SALE ON $SSO IN QUARTER END SHORT SPIKES

Our fund flow analysis is dictating a very short term trade on US equities on quarter end window dressing and short squeeze spike. Keep a tight stop.

GRMN (GARMIN) ON WATCH LIST FOR SHORT SELL

$GRMN shares have steadily moved up since reporting better than expected numbers. Our analysis shows the reason for better numbers is inventory build up. Inventory build up appears to have continued in this quarter but should be near an end.

The other factor in the run up has been introduction of G60 Nuvifone. Today AT&T announced price of $299 after $100 mail in rebate with 2 year service agreement. In contrast Apple's basic iPhone costs $99. We do not believe that $GRMN will ever succeed in the phone market beyond a niche player. Analysts expect $60million phone sales in 2009 and $250million in 2010. In our opinion there is a high likelihood that after the initial burst of activity, sales will fall off and not meet the targets.

This stock has a short interest of 16% of the float. The probability of a short squeeze is very high. We will start scaling into a short position on any spike from the anticipated short squeeze.

$XRX (XEROX) ON BUY LIST AFTER FLAWED ACQUISITION

With all the risks of acquisition of ACS, as XRX falls, it will become a compelling value uaround $5. However as long the overall market stays strong, we may not get an opportunity to buy below $5. Consider lightly scaling in if the stock falls further and aggressively adding below $5.

This recommendation is not based on potential synergies. Our analysis shows that the rationale behind the acquisition is deeply flawed. Our call is based on the deep valuation that may present itself due to the flawed acquisition.

WE ARE STILL HOLDING OUR LARGE POSITION WITH SIGNIFICANT PROFITS ON PILGRIM PRIDE

In response to questions, we are still holding our position in Pilgrim Pride, new symbol PPGDQ and old symbol PPC. As per our plan , we continued to scale in as the stock fell with majority of our buying at 0.50 and 0.62 based on our analysis of the value in this company. Our analysis shows that after the planned transaction the stock may hit $10.

To protect profits, we suggest a proper mixture of tight and wide sell stops

WE TOOK LARGE PROFITS IN $CDE

In response to several questions, at present we have no position in $CDE. Per last post, profits were taken at $21.64 and stops hit on the remaining position at $21.23. Considering our average cost was $11.30 this turned out to be a good trade in a silver stock. This shows the power of our methodology.

TAKE PARTIAL PROFITS ON $CDE RAISE STOPS ON THE REST

$CDE has significantly outperformed other silver stocks since our last post. It is simply prudent to lock in profits.

RAISE STOPS ON OUR $CDE POSITION

We have substantial gains on $CDE. We suggest putting a tight sell stop on partial position and a wider sell stop on rest of position.

CONSIDER PARTIAL SELL ON OUR CDE POSITION RIGHT HERE AT $16.83

OUR LONG/SHORT ALLOCATION MODEL REMAINS UNCHANGED

Today stock market broke out to new year to date high. All components of our model with the exception of three would dictate a more positive stance. Here are the three exceptions:

Recently US Stock Market has been remarkably correlated to US $; weaker the dollar, higher the stock market. Today as the sock market broke out to new highs, the dollar did not. This is setting up a serious divergence .

US money supply is not increasing, whereas money supply in the rest of the world is increasing sharply. This sets up conditions for a short term rally in US $. If the recent correlation persists, a rally in dollar will lead to lower stock market.

Fund flows in stock market reached a very high level. Our proprietary money flow indicators show euphoria. Our research shows that when our money flow indicators reach such extreme levels, probability of a reversal is very high.

We would like to remind our readers that the objective of our model is to generate alpha, i.e., extra risk adjusted return. With the emphasis on reducing risk, our allocation model stays unchanged even with the market making new high.

OUR LONG/SHORT ALLOCATION MODEL IS NOW 50% CASH, 20% LONG AND 30% SHORT

In today's market, extraordinary strength of dollar against both Yen and Euro, muted reaction to a great Employment Report, Volume executed at BID vs. Volume executed at ASK at key support/resistance points in S&P Futures and afternoon reversal of money flow in leading groups when plugged in our moder are primarily responsible for this allocation change

OUR LONG/SHORT ALLOCATION MODEL IS NOW 50% CASH, 25% LONG AND 25% SHORT

OUR INTERMEDIATE TERM TIMING MODEL IS NOW 45% SHORT S&P 500, SPY, ES_F

OUR INTERMEDIATE TERM TIMING MODEL IS NOW 30% SHORT AND 70% CASH S&P 500 $SPY $SPX $ES_F

INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED DETAILS OF OUR PERFORMANCE $ES_F $SPY $SPX $$ $

Click on the medallion above to view performance and detailed statistics of our Intermediate S&P 500 market timing signal

TheAroraReport TIMING SIGNAL RANKED NUMBER ONE BY TIMERTRAC $$

Here are the details from TimerTrac that independently verifies our intermediate timing signal:
TimerTrac has verified that the strategies below are actual.


Top Performers over the period from Monday, May 04, 2009 through Friday, July 10, 2009
The index SP500 changed -3.10% over this same time period.
Rank 1
Strategy Name TheAroraReport s&p 500 Intermediate Timing signal
Gain/Loss % 1.88%
Difference % 4.98%
Trades in time frame 7


"TimerTracked!".

IINTERMEDIATE S&P 500 TIMING MODEL NOW 90% CASH AND 10% SHORT $ES_F $SPX $SPY

STREET'S EARNING ESTIMATES ON $AMGN (AMGEN) REMAIN TOO HIGH

We aggressively sold short $AMGN yesterday at $60.80 as per our plan in the earlier post. We take no issue with the positive trial results. Our issue is with the earning estimates of the street. Majority of $AMGN earnings come from anemia drugs. We continue to believe that these earnings will shrink at a more rapid pace than the new earnings from new drugs. We will maintain our short position on $AMGN.

Because of street's enthusiasm for the stock, we will manage the trade by scaling out on dips and scaling in on spikes up.

BUY TO COVER $MLM RIGHT HERE AT $76.11

Our long time readers know that we dissect money flows in several ways to gain insight. Even in an overall weak market, up volume/down volume in MLM (Martin Marietta Materials Inc ) was 1.21

TAKE MORE PROFITS ON OUR SHORT OIL POSITION RIGHT HERE AT $60.05 $CLQ9 AND $USO

We will continue to take partial profits and tighten the stops if oil continues to fall.

TAKE PARTIAL PROFITS AND TIGHTEN STOPS ON ALL OUR SHORT POSITIONS $ $$

We have substantial profits in our short positions. Our fundamental thesis has not changed on any of these positions and our analysis shows that more gains are likely. However, in keeping with our methodology of not letting gains slip away, conservative accounts may consider taking partial profits here and tightening the stops on the rest of the position. Aggressive accounts may consider tightening stops on partial positions and keeping somewhat wider stops on the rest.

TAKING MORE PROFITS ON OUR SHORT OIL POSITION AT $60.6 AND TIGHTENING STOPS ON THE REST $CLQ9 $USO $CL_F

EIA RAISES WORLD OIL DEMAND $CLQ9

Based on EIA raising world demand, taking more profits right here around $62.70 and tightening stops on the rest on our short oil position

LAMPERT VALIDATES OUR CALL ON $AZO, $ORLY AND $AAP

In the past three weeks, Lampert and his key investors sold more than $538M in AutoZone . We are still short on $AZO and its competitors.

The latest argument advanced by supporters of these stocks is that reduction of dealers by GM and Chrysler benefits these stocks. Such Gurus claim that the dealerships being cut are closing, leaving their customers in a lurch and such customers will go to these outfits.

Our checks show that such Gurus have been making these pronouncements without checking the facts. Every single car dealer being cut that we have spoken to is staying open and plans to focus on used cars, parts, and service.

TAKING MORE PROFITS ON OIL $CLQ9 $USO

We are short on oil from $71.70. Taking some profits here at $64.16 and tightening stops on the rest

TAKE PROFITS AND EXIT OUR SHORT $TIVO (TIVO)

After reading Baron's Tech Trader Daily, it occurs to us that it will be relatively easy for someone to float a rumor of settlement between $TIVO and $DISH causing $TIVO stock price to shoot up. Of course, there may also be a real settlement.

Out of abundance of caution consider exiting rest of our $TIVO short position right here around $9.17. Earlier we exited 50% of the position at $9.07. Our short was from $10.65.

Our fundamental thesis to short sell $TIVO based on advent of networked DVR remains intact. Consider an automatic short sell signal on $TIVO if price shoots up on a settlement or rumors of a settlement.

TIGHTEN STOPS ON OIL $CLQ9 TO PROTECT PROFITS

We gave a short sell signal on oil at $71.70. Now it is at $67.60. Consider tightening the stops to protect profits and taking partial profits.

TIGHTEN STOPS TO PROTECT PROFIT ON $TIVO (TIVO)

We gave a short sell signal on $TIVO at $10.65. Now it is around $9.00. Tighten stops and consider taking partial profits.

SHORT SELL SIGNAL ON $AFFX (AFFYMETRIX)

Macro picture is getting worse for this company as is evidenced by earnings warning from $ILMN (ILLUMNIA). We are short from $6.00.

WE WILL MAINTAIN OUR SHORT SELL ON CRUDE OIL FUTURES $CLQ9

Our analysis of all reliable projections of supply and demand that we can find has not supported crude oil prices of over $70.00 per barrel. However, we refrained from giving a short sell signal due to strong technicals.

Yesterday, there was a vicious reversal from highs of the day. Same pattern repeated today. It appears that technicals are finally deteriorating. Earlier today we gave a short sell signal to scale in at $71.70 via twitter. We will tighten the stop on half the position and maintain the rest with a wide stop.

CONSIDER ADDING TO OUR $MFE (MCAFEE) SHORT SELL POSITION

$MFE shares are up strongly today on reports that it will unveil a new version of its flagship product on July 7. This run up is offering a good opportunity to build short position. We added to our short position at $42.40 and will add more going into July 7 as it goes higher. There is no change to our fundamental thesis for a short sell on this stock.

WAIT UNTIL AFTER $APOL EARNINGS TO ADD TO SHORTS ON EDUCATION STOCKS

As a follow up to the last post, we would only lightly scale in shorts here and wait until after $APOL earnings tonight to add to positions especially on a spike up

CONSIDER SHORT SELL ON EDUCATION STOCKS $COCO $CECO $CPLA $APOL $ESI

Our sources tell us that there is some truth to the rumors that federal funds will be offered to community colleges to develop free online "open courses". Such a development will be very negative for education stocks which are already overbought.

CONSIDER SHORT SELL ON $TIVO

Supreme Court just cleared the way for $CVC (Cablevision) to offer their remote DVR service. We believe remote DVR service is the future. This development is very negative for $TIVO. Consider scaling in shorts in $TIVO right here around $10.65 and add to positions as the stock goes higher or if it breaks down.

13%PROFIT IN TWO DAYS ON $CDE

Consider tightening the stop to protect the profit as CDE has moved up to $12.8. If the stock rises furher, consider starting to scale out.

CONSIDER TAKING PARTIAL PROFITS ON CDE

we will maintain our core position on CDE, but will take partial profits on rest of the position right here around $12.00. Our average cost is $11.3

EDDIE LAMPERT SALE SUPPORTS OUR THESIS ON $AZO (AUTOZONE)

Our long term readers know that we have been short on $AZO and its competitors. Last night Lampert indicated in a filing that he sold 454K shares and distributed another 2.6M shares. This sale seems to support our thesis on staying short on $AZO, $ORLY, and $AAP.

CONSIDER TAKING PROFIT ON GOLD $GLD $DGP

Those who followed our tweet yesterday have a $18.00 profit on gold futures. As our long time readers know, we recommend $DGP for those not comfortable with futures. $DGP buy price should have been around $19.25. Take profits right here around $20.16.

CONSIDER BUY ON $CDE

CDE (Coeur d’Alene Mines) announced t the Supreme Court has released its decision affirmed the previously issued permit for the tailings facility for the Kensington gold mine near Juneau, Alaska. The decision has the potential to unleash a powerful move up in the stock. Consider scaling in around $11 and hedging with $SLV

$ES_F, $SPY,$SPX OUR INTERMEDIATE MODEL CHANGE FROM 40% SHORT TO 30% SHORT

Consider buy to cover 10% right here around 891 on SP Futures

CONSIDER TIGHTENING STOPS ON ALL OF OUR PROFITABLE SHORT SELL POSITIONS

CONSIDER TIGHTENING STOPS ON OUR PROFITABLE SHORT SELL POSITIONS ON COAL STOCKS $BTU AND $CNX

CONSIDER TIGHTENING STOPS ON OUR SHORT SELL ON $WLP (WELLPOINT)

We are short on WLP from $51.90. Those following our methodology should have taken profit on 10% of the position at $49.92 and should take profit on another 10% right here around $48.95.
Consider tightening the stops on the rest. We recommend a series of stops on partial positions

CONSIDER TIGHTENING STOPS ON $WLP AND TAKING PARTIAL PROFITS

We are short on WLP from from $51.90 and now it is at $49.92. Consider taking partial profits and tightening the stop on the rest

WE ARE SHORT ON $WLP (WELLPOINT)

Those following our methodology should have scaled in lightly at $51.40 and added aggressively at $51.95, with an average around $51.90.

CONSIDER ADDING LIGHTLY TO $NNI (NELNET) SHORT POSITION RIGHT HERE AT $11.72 AND CONSIDER ADDING AS THE STOCK GOES HIGHER

CONSIDER SHORT SELL ON $WLP ( WELLPOINT)

Consider lightly scaling in a short sell position on WLP around $50.90. Our analysis shows that several market Gurus who have run up this stock are mistaken in valuing this stock based on past earnings. No matter what shape health reform takes, it is going to be a different world. Medical cost ratios will go up no matter what and any valuation based on old formulas is short sighted

CONSIDER SHORT SELL ON $NNI (NELNET)

After earlier exiting our short sell position on NNI, we lightly scaled in a new short position on NNI at $11 at close. Add more based on technicals aggressively if price goes higher ang gingerly if price goes lower.

Market participants appear to be over enthusiastic about the Department of Education contract. Our own business experiences show and we have verified with sources that this is a very low margin servicing business and does not include origination or Title IV.

10% RETURN ON $SLM AND 5% ON NNI IN ONE DAY,

Per earlier post we exited 50% NNI position at $9.40 and tightened the stop on the rest. The stop hit at $9.60 giving us an average buy to cover price 0f $9.50. The return is 5.94% or 2168% annualized

Per earlier post, we exited 50% SLM at $8.00 and tightened the stop on the rest that hit at $8.12, giving us an average buy to cover price of $8.06. The return is 10.92% or 3980% annualized.

CONSIDER TIGHTENING STOPS ON $NNI (NELNET)

Those who followed our tweet last night should be short $NNI from $10.10. Consider taking profits on half the position around $9.40 and tighten the stop on the rest.

CONSIDER TAKING PROFITS ON $SLM

Those who followed our tweet last night should be short $SLM from around $9.15. Consider exiting half the position right here around $8.00 and tight stops on the rest.

CONSIDER TAKING PROFITS ON $HUM (HUMANA)

Those who followed our tweet lastnight should be long on $HUM from $28.00 to $28.40 with pre-market trades. Consider exiting the entire position right here at around $30.16.

CONSIDER SHORT SELL ON $EXPE ( EXPEDIA) , $PCLN (PRICELINE) AND $OWW(ORBITZ)

Recent court rulings in Georgia and the state of Washington may force EXPE, PCLN and OWW to pay millions in damages and uncollected taxes. With state budgets in trouble, every state is going to go after theses companies for unpaid sales taxes and occupancy taxes. Not only market participants underestimating the potential taxes due, there also seems to be under appreciation of the impact of taxes on ongoing profits.

Consider scaling in short sell positions in EXPE around $15.6, PCLN around $ 110.40 and OWW around $2

CONSIDER ADDING TO SHORT SELL POSITION ON $BBH RIGHT HERE AROUND $93

CONSIDER TIGHTENING ON REST OF SHORT SELL COAL POSITIONS $BTU AND $CNX

CONSIDER ADDING TO SHORT SELL POSTION ON $AMGN (AMGEN) AROUND $52.58 AND ADD MORE AS STOCK GOES HIGHER

CONSIDER LIGHTLY TAKING PROFITS IN OUR SHORT SELL COAL STOCK POSITIONS IN $BTU AND $CNX

TAKE PROFIT AND EXIT OUR SHORT TERM MODEL SHORT ON SP500 FUTURES

$ES_F, SPY, SPX, SP500 Futures, exit and take profit on our short term model short position right here around 913.

Our intermediate term model stays 40% short on SP500.

CONSIDER SHORT SELL $QGLY (QUIGLEY CORP)

FDA has ordered $MTXX Matrixx Initiatives to pull several of its zinc based cold remedies from the store shelves. According to FDA, it has received over 100 reports of people loosing sense of smell after using Zicam.

QGLY has similar products. Consider sell short QGLY right here at $4.00 and short more if stock goes higher.

ADD TO SHORT POSITION ON AMGN AROUND $51.16 AND MORE AS STOCK GOES HIGHER

CONSIDER SHORT SELL ON $AMGN (AMGEN) AND $BBH (BIOTECH HOLDERS)

President Obama in his speech before AMA specifically mentioned generic biologics and anemia drugs. We sold short AMGN around $49.90 and BBH around $90.30. Consider adding to the positions based on technicals.

CONSIDER SHORT SELL ON $AVAV ( AeroVironment )

At the Paris Airshow $BA (Boeing) announced that it is getting into the unmanned aircraft business. This is a major change and will adversely effect the business of AVAV. Consider scaling a short sell on AVAV.
Please be aware of the high short interest and periodic short squeezes in the name. Consider using this information to add to the position on both up and down moves

BUY TO COVER VMC (VLCAN MATERIALS)

Vulcan Materials announces pricing of public equity offering at $41.00 after the close today. We suggest buy to cover around $41

TEST

ADD TO SHORT SELL ON COAL STOCKS

Earlier we started lightly scaling in on short sell on coal stocks. Our fundamental checks continue to support our position, although momentum is against us. Consider continue to scale in on spikes in BTU and CNX

VINDICATION ON ARST (ARCSIGHT). OUR PREDICTION HAS PROVEN CORRECT

On March 08, 2009, we gave a buy signal on ARST at $11. On June 02, 2009, we gave a sell signal at $17.05 for over 50% gain in a short time.

We received several emails questioning our methodology by brokers apparently very knowledgeable about this stock.

Today after the close, ArcSight sees Q1 EPS 3c-8c vs. consensus 9c and sees Q1 revenue $31M-$34M vs. consensus $34.29M. The stock is down to $15.

Once again , our metodolgy made the correct prediction and sold ARST near the high.

ARORA VSTC INDICATOR SUCCESSFULLY CAPTURED 100 DOW POINTS PREDICTING MARKET REVERSAL

As stock market went higher, Arora VSTC Indicator dropped signaling market reversal. Second day in a row this proprietary indicator captured major reversal, not caught by traditional indicators. Please see our tweets for details

CONSIDER SHORT SELL ON VMC (VULCAN MATERIALS) AND MLM (MARTIN MARIATTA MATERIALS

After hours,VMC ()Vulcan Materials sees Q2 EPS of 15c-30c vs. consensus 44c . VMC to also reduce Q3 dividend to 25c from 49c .

Our analysis of fundamentals of the industry did not jive with recent promotion of the sector and VMC by a popular market guru. Consider selling short VMC over $43 -44.

As a relationship trade, consider scaling in a short position on MLM

CONSIDER SCALING IN SHORT SELL ON MFE (MCAFEE)

Right here at $39.87 and continue to short MFE as stock moves higher. MSFT announced in November 2008 that it intended to offer a free anti-virus service. Lately, market participants have forgotten about the threat to MFE's business and the stock has moved up. This provides a great opportunity to short MFE. We prefer MFE to SYMC because of valuation and lack of diversity of business.

TAKE PROFIT ON 10% SP500 AROUND 939

Our tweet from this morning is pasted below:

thearorareport: Premarket Nasdaq Advance/Decline 6.03. Interpretation: at extreme., either a blow out or sharp reversal $$ about 3 hours ago from web.

The power of rigorous analysis is at full display here. The market has reversed about 140 points in a straight line since then. our prediction was not based on a feel, but rather on rigorous analysis of the pre market Nasdaw A/D values.

On the blog we posted for a short on SP500 futures around 957, but most othe fills are around 953. If you followed the signal, we suggest taking profit on the 10% short from this morning right here around 939

GOT LUCKY ON MRNA

Earlier this morning, we gave a signal to take profit on MRNA around $2.70. However MRNA is opening up around $2.25. We recommend exiting at $2.25 for over 35% profit in one day

CONSIDER 10% SELL SHORT ON SP500 FUTURES AROUND 957