EXITING $BCRX ( BIOCRYST ) WITH PROFIT
February 20, 2010
Based on ZYX Change Method, we shorted flu stocks. We have now taken profits on all of these stocks with the exception of $BCRX. Our proprietary money flow indicators are beginning to turn up, therefore ZYX Change Method discipline dictates an exit. For performance tracking purposes, we will use Friday’s closing price of $6.90.for buy to cover. We overstayed in the position as the stock traded as low as $5.55 since we initiated the short position.
2 Responses to “EXITING $BCRX ( BIOCRYST ) WITH PROFIT”
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My fund plans to stay short on BCRX. Your exit is premature.
We have been following your trades. Your enteries are usually excellent and seem to be mostly influenced by fundamentals, but your exits seem to be mostly influenced by technicals. We are a fundamental shop and do not give much credence to technicals.
Have you analzed what your performance would be if you stayed true to fundamentals for exits?
Fundamentals? What exactly are you looking at that makes you think the fundamentals of BCRX are not sound?
* No debt
* $95M in the bank
* 120K courses already manufactured and paid for
* PIII trials paid for by the US gov
* Approval in Japan, with EUA's in the US, Australia, Mexico, SKorea, Hong Kong…
* EIND with a 90% success rate, and an inferred 85%+ success rate on the 1000+ patients on US EUA
* Partners everywhere (inluding Merck Serono)
* $95M possible Milestones from Shionogi
* 10%-20% royalties from Shionogi with Japan moving away from Tamiflu and saying they want to stockpile for up to 50% of their population.
* Even higher royalties from Green Cross
* Solid pipeline
* Market cap of <$300M
* Flu season all year long in the southern or northern hemisphere with Tamiflu fast becoming useless to the regular flu
** The ONLY approved IV antiviral in existence.
Best Regards
-Jaime Ortega