The first presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is scheduled for Sept. 26. The secret to success in investing and trading is to prepare for various scenarios in advance, in this case, the debate. Let us start by looking at key S&P 500 — represented by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, levels. Later we will discuss a number of trades.
First, a note of caution
Irrespective of who wins the first debate, it is important to remember there are two more debates ahead. There is also the possibility of an October surprise. One example of an October surprise may be a new dump of Clinton emails by WikiLeaks. The polls can swing quickly. For the foregoing reasons, the trades mentioned are high-risk, short-term trades suitable only for aggressive, experienced investors. To be absolutely clear, these are not long-term investment themes.
The chart shows high-probability zones where S&P 500 may go, in our opinion, after the debate.
What you need to know
As we see it at The Arora Report:
- The markets are trading as though Clinton has already won.
- As of this writing, polls have been narrowing in Trump’s favor.
- The consensus is that Clinton will win the debate.
- For Clinton to win the debate, the expectation bar is very high.
- For Trump to win the debate, the expectation bar is very low….Read more at MarketWatch
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