IS IT WISE TO WATCH THE CHARTS RIGHT NOW WHEN IT COMES TO OIL? $SCO $USO $OIL $UCO $DWTI $UWTI $CL_F $CLU6 #CRUDE OIL #OIL

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IS IT WISE TO WATCH THE CHARTS RIGHT NOW WHEN IT COMES TO OIL? $SCO $USO $OIL $UCO $DWTI $UWTI $CL_F $CLU6 #CRUDE OIL #OIL

Will oil go to $26 or $60? This is the question of the moment. There are more than a few opinions by gurus on both the bullish and bearish sides. The dilemma that investors and traders face is that most of the gurus have been continuously wrong on oil. Do not blame the gurus. Oil is the most volatile and most difficult commodity to forecast. Of course, you could ask, “Why should we listen to you?” Well, we have a way of looking at oil that may, hopefully, offer a different perspective.

Our algorithms at The Arora Report for oil have input data in seven categories, and I suggest that investors take a look at all of these categories in making investing and trading decisions in oil. Here are the categories.

  • Technicals as shown on the charts in various time frames
  • Oil supply
  • Oil demand
  • Geopolitics
  • Oil and product inventories
  • Sentiment
  • Market positioning

 

Here I will discuss only charts and sentiment. Other categories will be the subject of future columns.

The medium-term chart

Let us start with a medium-term chart of WTI crude oil September futures contract that trade on NYMEX CLU6.

Please click here for the annotated chart of crude oil futures.

Here are the key observations from the chart.

  • After the big decline, the first major rally from the bottom failed at the major resistance zone.
  • The pullback failed to stop at the first support zone and continued down to the support zone under $40…..Read more at MarketWatch

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