Recent trip to India confirms that high inflation expectations are taking hold in the psyche of all important Indian middle class. Higher interest rates and increasing defaults on bank loans are inevitable. Indian stock market is kept elevated by dumb foreign money. Dumb foreign Morey keeps on buying Indian banks, whereas smart domestics are selling the banks as they see much higher inflation and interest rates.

Short IBN on any bounces to mid forties. As foreign investors start understanding the change in the macro environment, the stock should fall in twenties. It is a volatile stock, so start covering in low thirties.

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