Posts Tagged ‘GLD’
A POINTER FOR INTERNATIONAL SUBSCRIBERS REGARDING GOLD AND SILVER
February 3, 2012
We often trade gold ETF GLD and silver ETF SLV. These ETFs are not available in some international markets. However, different gold and silver ETFs are available in most markets. Please consider ETFs that trade in your market with the following two characteristics: the highest volume ETF and the smallest spread between bid and ask.
Full size futures contracts are suitable only for large accounts. The reason behind this is our methodology to scale in and scale out.
Some markets, including the United States have mini or micro futures contracts available. Usually these contracts exhibit wide bid ask spreads. However if you can find a small futures contract in your market with tight bid ask spread it should work well with our methodology.
Those who are able to buy and sell in the spot market with very little spread can also use our methodology.
The foregoing applies only to short term trades.
For long term investors, almost any instrument can be used. Please be aware that the long term signals are given in the ZYX Global Multi Asset Allocation Alert.
ADDING ANOTHER TRANCHE TO GOLD (GLD)
February 3, 2012
Adding a 5% tranche to GLD right here at $170.98.
Tags: GLD
ADDING TO GOLD (GLD)
January 27, 2012
Adding a 5% tranche to gold (GLD) right here at $169.
Tags: GLD
ADDED TO GOLD (GLD)
January 27, 2012
Added a 5% tranche to gold (GLD) right here at $167.48.
Tags: GLD
NEW TRADE ON GOLD (GLD)
January 26, 2012
A new 5% tranche short on GLD right here at $167.82.
The plan is to build a new short position in GLD starting with the last entry. The plan is to build the position slowly if gold continues to go up all the way to $1825.
Our stop zone will be $1826 to $1865. This is a medium term trade and the risk of loss is high.
Those holding an existing short position in GLD or gold futures may want to adjust their position based on the principles taught in Bullet Proof Your Portfolio seminar or in the alternate, by properly using ZYX Change Method Trade Management Guidelines.
We will be closely following this trade on the ZYX Short Sell Change Alert.
Tags: GLD
OUT OF GOLD
January 26, 2012
This is the post on ZYX Short Sell Change Alert yesterday at 12:28:
’FED EASES, GOOD FOR GOLD AND SILVER’
The language behind Fed’s statement amounts to QE2.5. This is positive for gold and silver.
Out of the gold ETF (GLD) trade at $161.
Tags: GLD
ADDED TO GOLD
January 23, 2012
Image via Wikipedia
Consider adding a 5% tranche to gold (GLD) right here at $163.42.
Those not in the position may start a 5% position here.
New subscribers: Please carefully study Trade Management Guidelines before entering this trade on GLD.
We will continue to follow this trade on the paid subcription Alert service.
FRENCH DOWNGRADE AND QE3 LEAK DO NOT HELP GOLD AND SILVER
January 13, 2012
S&P today downgraded France and other European countries. Such a downgrade just before the long weekend should have caused about $70 of up move in gold. GLD and SLV not only did not respond, GLD and SLV are now down. Gold futures GCG2 are now down to $1633 and silver futures SIG2 are at $29.50.
Federal Reserve Bank has also leaked its plans on QE3. Based on historical patterns, this leak alone should have caused gold to go up by about $100.
Trifecta of long weekend, French downgrade and QE3 — all supposed to be extremely bullish for gold and silver based on the conventional wisdom, and what do gold and silver do? Gold and silver go down.
It is humbling to see that ZYX Global Multi Asset Allocation adaptive model, i.e., the model that automatically changes based on market conditions continues its streak of correctly calling gold and silver now five years in a row. Let us not be overconfident and be vigilant as nobody bats 100% in the business of investments.
Silver Mine Closure Points To Risk/Opportunity
January 12, 2012
On the morning of January 11, 2012, there was a repeat of twin lessons for long investors in gold and silver miners. First it pays to understand the condition of mines. And second that the money is often made on the short side.
Established in 1891, Hecla Mining /quotes/zigman/229110/quotes/nls/hl HL +2.82% is the largest silver producer in the U.S. Hecla produces silver from Lucky Friday mine in Idaho and Greens Creek mine in Alaska.
The news was that the Mine Safety and Health Administration (“MSHA”) ordered the silver shaft at the Lucky Friday mine closed for removal of built-up material in the shaft. The silver shaft is a one-mile deep shaft from the surface and the primary access to the Lucky Friday mine. This order was pursuant to the investigation following the December 14, 2011 rock burst.
Compliance with the order is expected to take through year-end. Hecla’s 2012 silver production is now estimated to be approximately 7 million ounces. Previous estimate of the production was 9.5 million ounces.
The stock of Hecla was crushed ending the day down 21% at $4.61 after trading as low as $4.25.
“While we are disappointed with this order and are considering what action we might take, work has already begun to resume production as quickly as possible,” Phil Baker, Hecla’s President and Chief Executive Officer said in a statement . “The Lucky Friday mine is a world-class mine that we see producing silver for decades to come. Hecla and the Lucky Friday mine have faced challenges in the past and we will once again overcome them.”…Read More on MarketWatch
Gold And Silver Facing Cluster Of Chart Resistance
January 6, 2012
As gold and silver continue a steady move up from recent lows they face a cluster of resistance. The cluster has been formed by the convergence of a number of popular moving averages.
Most charts show jagged price movement. The jaggedness makes it difficult to get a good handle on the trend. Moving averages were developed to smooth out the jaggedness to give traders a better picture of the trend. A moving average is simply a rolling mean where the average is calculated by discarding the oldest point in the data series and adding the newest point.
These days, the most popular type of moving average used in technical analysis of stocks is the exponential moving average (EMA). An exponential moving average uses a smoothing factor to give a higher weight to more recent prices and lower weights to the older ones in the series.
Although moving averages were initially developed to provide an idea of trend, over a period of time traders started using them as support and resistance levels. If the price is above a moving average, some traders believe that the moving average acts as a support; if the price is below a moving average, the moving average acts as a resistance.
As the chart shows the four popular exponential moving averages are clustered around the closing price of gold. A cluster such as this one usually provides strong resistance.
Gold faces a significant hurdle from the convergence of its 50- and 200-day EMA above its present price…Read More at Forbes.
ADDED TO GOLD (GLD)
January 6, 2012
Added to short position in GLD at $158.58.
Please see ZYX Short Sell Change Alert for follow up on this position in Real Time.
NEW TRADE ON GOLD (GLD)
January 6, 2012
Took a short position on gold (GLD) at $158.19.
Please see ZYX Short Sell Change Alert for follow up on this position in Real Time.
GOLD MARKET’S HAND TIPPED BY KIM JONG-IL DEATH
December 19, 2011
Kim Jong-Il, the dictator of North Korea has died.
North Korea is the most militarized nation in the world with nukes. North Korean troops are staring American soldiers from a few hundred feet. This event may have major implications, especially for gold and silver.
Technically, North Korea is still at war with the United States and South Korea. There are reports that North Korea fired a number of short range missiles this morning. South Korea has put its armed forces on a high state of alert.
President Obama reportedly had an urgent telephone conversation with Lee Myung-bak, the president of South Korea.
Senior ministers in Japan were called in for an urgent security meeting. Yoshihiko Noda, the Prime Minister of Japan, reportedly cancelled an important speech and rushed back to his office.
Korean won fell and so did the Kospi Korean stock market.
North Korea is reported to have fuel for at least eight nuclear weapons. South Korean army has been put on high alert.
If conventional wisdom and past patterns of gold and silver were to be followed, gold would have spiked $100 and silver $3. Instead, immediately after the news was released both gold and silver in Singapore went down.
At the time of this writing, gold and silver in the United States were trying to stage only a modest up move.
The reaction to Kim Jong-il’s death is a tell that gold and silver are in weak hands. Gold will move up from here only after all weak hands are taken out…Read More at Forbes.
GOLD AND SILVER GAVE A CLEAR SELL SIGNAL AT THE RECENT TOP. WERE YOU LISTENING?
December 14, 2011
This article contains the following tickers: GLD, SLV, ZSL, GDX, GDXJ, AG, CDE, HL, SSRI, PAAS, ABX, NEM, AEM, SLW, and GG
I have a long proven track record of calling twists and turns of the gold and silver markets correctly. Some of the credit goes to the adaptive allocation models at The Arora Report , but most of the credit goes to gold and silver markets themselves. Adaptive models are the models that automatically change themselves to make correct market calls.
Gold and silver markets, unlike the stock market, often provide clear buy or sell signals to anyone who is listening. December 8,2011 was no exception.
Leading to the fateful early warning of December 8th, gold and silver were caught in chaotic volatile range bound trading. Our back testing of similar patterns in the past showed that the probability was about even of gold and silver breaking out of the range on the up side or the down side.
As has happened numerous times in the past, there it was – an unambiguous sell signal on gold. Reading the signal could not have been easier and I gave the signal to sell gold at $1757 right at the top as shown on the chart. Since then, in a matter of three days gold has fallen about $100. The sell signal was a trading signal and not a very long-term recommendation.
Trading gold and silver used to be straight forward until about three years ago. Gold and silver followed Economics 101. Whenever there was a geopolitical scare, investors sought shelter in gold; demand went up and prices rose. When the crisis that led to the run…Read More at MarketWatch..
BLAME THE IMF FOR THE BIG DROP IN GOLD
November 18, 2011
ETFs mentioned in this article include GLD, IAU, SLV, DGP, UGL, and AGQ.
Gold fell $54 Thursday. Most gurus were expecting gold to go up due to increasing instability in Europe.
Spain conducted a dreadful bond auction, in which it was forced to pay 6.975%, just shy of the 7% benchmark. Interest rate of 7% is considered unsustainable. Bid-to-cover ratio was 1.5 compared to 1.8 last month for a similar bond. The lower the bid-to- cover ratio, lower the investor demand.
The worst part of the Spanish auction was that the government was not able to sell all the bonds it wanted to sell. This spooked the markets all over the world. On such a day filled with panic, it was reasonable to assume that gold would go up, instead gold plunged.
The real reason for the plunge in the gold is speculation that International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be selling gold.
The IMF is one of the largest owners of gold in the world, holding 90.5 million ounces or 2,814.1 metric tons of gold.
The IMF has a history of selling gold, however recent sales have been to central banks of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Mauritius, and India. Will IMF sell gold in the open market is an open question.
Considering the worsening situation in Europe, IMF selling gold to help Europe is a distinct possibility especially since Germany has declared its gold untouchable. Bundesbank, the central bank of Germany recently issued a statement opposing any gold sales. It is worth noting that in Germany, gold is kept under the independent oversight of the Bundesbank…Read More at Forbes
GERMANY REFUSES TO SELL GOLD, YOU SHOULD DO THE SAME
November 9, 2011
This article includes stock on gold (GLD), silver (SLV), Coeur d’ Alene Mines (CDE), (GLL), and (IAU).
My long time readers are well familiar with the accuracy of my calls on gold and silver. These calls are well documented here.
As a background for the new readers, I am neither a bull nor a bear on gold and silver. My interest lies in making money both on the upside and the downside.
New readers can gain background on my ZYX Change Method by reading my prior articles on Seeking Alpha listed below:
- Silver Demand Theory Debunked
- Debt Ceiling Agreement: Short Selling Silver Again
- Gold: What To Do Now
- Gold And Silver: What To Do Now Redux
- Gold And Silver: A Simple Tool All Investors Should Use
The chart shows that I recommended putting 20% of assets in silver when silver was at $17.73 and then took profits right at the top before a big fall.
The next chart shows my recommendation to short sell silver right at the top. Most importantly when silver was hitting $50.00, I provided a target of $34.00 in a very short time.
The next chart shows a perfect call on taking profits on gold at the very top.
(Click to enlarge)
In my recent article titled Draghi Changes The Game For Stocks, Gold, Silver And Oil, I stated:
Considering that eurozone is a major part of the world economy, Super Mario has changed the game for stocks, gold, silver, oil and currencies … After plugging in the rate cut, we are no longer inclined to short sell …Read more..
DRAGHI CHANGES THE GAME FOR STOCKS, GOLD, SILVER AND OIL
November 5, 2011
It turns out that Mario Draghi is Super Mario. Mario Draghi is an ex-central bank governor of Italy who just took over from Jean-Claude Trichet the presidency of the European Central Bank (ECB).
In a surprise bold move, Draghi announced that the ECB is lowering its main rate from 1.5% to 1.25%. This rate cut will either avert the looming recession from Europe, or make the recession milder.
This cut in interest rate came despite inflation in the eurozone at 3%, which is a three-year high. Draghi’s predecessor Trichet saw the ECB’s mandate as controlling inflation irrespective of the economic slump. Inference from the bold action by Draghi is that a major shift in policy in Europe is occurring. It appears that finally monetary authorities are about to give priority to growth.
Considering that eurozone is a major part of the world economy, Super Mario has changed the game for stocks, gold, silver, oil and currencies.
The following are the actions we are recommending:
- Take profits on a short silver position. Prior to the announcement, our models had just given a signal to add to the short silver position and were close to giving a short signal on gold.
- After plugging in the rate cut, we are no longer inclined to short sell silver and gold. If there is a big dip in silver and gold, and all six screens of the ZYX Change Method are met that may be a time to buy gold and silver.
ETFs of interest include GLD, IAU, SLV, GLL and ZSL….Read More
TAKING PROFITS ON GLD
September 23, 2011
Congratulations to those who participated in the (GLD) trade. This is now time to take profits on the final tranche and exit the trade. We are exiting the trade at $163.76.
Although we have been taking profits along the way, it is worth noting that our highest short was from $185.05.
Tags: GLD
