WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: ANXIETY AND JUBILATION ON INAUGURATION, GOLD SURVIVES BEAR ATTACK $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBF $TBT $USO

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: ANXIETY AND JUBILATION ON INAUGURATION, GOLD SURVIVES BEAR ATTACK $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBF $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

SIMULTANEOUS JUBILATION AND ANXIETY IN THE MARKETS ON THE INAUGURATION DAY, GOLD SURVIVES MORE BEAR ATTACKS, OIL HIGHER

This is what you need to know today.

Inauguration Day

Opinions among institutions on what is next for the markets are split down the middle.  This is causing simultaneously jubilation and anxiety in the markets.

The insight here is that The Arora Report portfolios are positioned correctly under these market conditions.  Only day before yesterday we raised hedges and cash.

Gold

Gold has survived more bear attacks indicating continuing underlying demand.

Oil Higher

Oil is higher on optimism ahead of the compliance meeting of oil producers.

Option Expiration

Today is option expiration.  It appears to be putting pressure to the upside.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive.

Interest rates, bonds and currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1202, silver futures are at $17.01, and oil futures are $53.21.

DJIA futures are up 12 points.

HOUSING STARTS RISE AND JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL AS SIGNS OF GOOD ECONOMY, GOLD SURVIVES BEAR ATTACKS

This is what you need to know today.

Good Economic Data

Initial Jobless Claims came at 234K vs. 252K consensus.  This is a leading indicator and carries a heavy weight in our models.

Housing Starts came at 1226K vs. 1190K consensus.  We pay more attention to building permits as they are a leading indicator.  Building Permits came at 1210K vs. 1210K consensus.

Gold Survives Bear Attacks

Since yesterday Morning Capsule, gold has survived several bear attacks.  In the very, very short-term, gold is overbought.  There has been a lot of good news; each time good news hits the wires bears see an opportunity to short considering gold is vulnerable due to overbought condition.

The mere fact that so far gold has survived these attacks shows that buyers are waiting in line to buy on pullbacks.  Of course, if such buyers become exhausted and bears continue to attack, gold has a $100 down side.

ECB

European Central Bank left rates unchanged.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.

Interest rates have ticked up and bonds have fallen.

Currencies are volatile but range bound.

Oil is being bought on pullbacks.

Gold futures are at $1201, silver futures are at $16.86, and oil futures are $52.38.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2288, 2300 and 2334; support levels are 2250, 2222, and 2200.

DJIA futures are down 12 points.

RAISE CASH AND HEDGES, INFLATION IN LINE, STRONG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, GOLD AND RISK AHEAD FROM FRANCE

This is what you need to know today.

Raise Cash And Hedges

Based on our models, consider slightly raising cash and hedges.  Please scroll down to ‘What To Do Now’ section.

Inflation

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) came at +0.2% vs. +0.2% consensus.

Industrial Production

Industrial Production has been strong, it came at +0.8% vs. +0.6% consensus.

Capacity Utilization came at 75.5% vs. 75.4% consensus.

Gold And Risk Ahead From France

Marine Le Pen, an increasingly popular nationalist running to become the president of France, is turning the election into a referendum on getting France out of Eurozone.  This poses a serious risk to most asset classes but is positive for gold.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive.

Gold, silver, interest rates, bonds and currencies are range bound.

Oil is falling.

Gold futures are at $1213, silver futures are at $17.18, and oil futures are $51.33.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2288, 2300 and 2334; support levels are 2250, 2222, and 2200.

DJIA futures are up 26  points.

TRUMP SENDS DOLLAR LOWER AND GOLD HIGHER, EARLY OPEC EXIT, SOFT BREXIT HOPES DASHED

This is what you need to know today.

Dollar Lower, Gold Higher

A comment from Trump that dollar has already moved too high is sending dollar lower and gold higher.  There is significant institutional buying and light buying by the ‘smart money.’

Some of the buying in gold appears to be a hedge against long stock positions.

Gold has broken out of last week’s range.

Both yen and euro are stronger against the dollar.

Early OPEC Exit

Saudi is saying that agreed OPEC cuts can end by mid-year.  This is putting pressure on oil.

Brexit

U. K. Prime Minister May  has given a speech that is more hawkish than expectations.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

Gold futures are at $1216, silver futures are at $17.12, and oil futures are $53.42.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2288, 2300 and 2334; support levels are 2250, 2222, and 2200.

DJIA futures are down 64 points.

 

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider 27 – 38% of assets in cash or treasury bills, and short to medium-term hedges of  25% and very short term hedges of 5%.

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