10-YEAR YIELD HITS TWO MONTH HIGH AS BOND TRADERS MAKE A CALL OPPOSITE OF THE MOMO CROWD GURUS

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know now.

10-Year Yield

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • Please read the Morning Capsule titled “ALL INVESTOR EYES ON JACKSON HOLE AND PCE.”
  • Bond traders tend to be smarter than stock traders.
  • Bond traders are making a call on Powell’s speech opposite to the call of momo crowd gurus.
    • The call of the bond traders is that Powell will be hawkish.
    • Bond traders are selling bonds.
    • The momo crowd continues to buy stocks on the hope that Powell will be dovish.
  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries is a benchmark that, in part, determines PE of stocks.
  • The higher the bond yield, the lower the PE.  For those who want next level information, please listen to the podcast titled “How To Know When The Stock Market Is A Bargain.”
  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries is hitting a 2-month high.
  • The chart shows when the results of the 5-year Treasury note auction were announced.  The results were not great.  Here are the details:
    • $45B 5-year Treasury note auction
    • High yield: 3.230% (When-Issued: 3.220%)
    • Bid-to-cover: 2.30
    • Indirect bid: 61.2%
    • Direct bid: 18.2%
  • The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand.
  • The VUD indicator is mixed, indicating that momo crowd buying is meeting some selling as prudent investors reduce  risk ahead of Jackson Hole.
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Money Flows

The momo crowd money flows since the Morning Capsule are 🔒 (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial).

Smart money flows since the Morning Capsule are 🔒.

Short squeeze money flows are 🔒.

A Special Note To New Subscribers

Note the smart money behavior.  Smart money tends to sell into strength on strong up days.

New subscribers should consider adopting smart money’s way of investing and trading.

Sentiment

Sentiment is 🔒.

Sentiment is a contrary indicator at extremes.  In plain English, this means that when sentiment becomes extremely positive it is time to sell and when sentiment becomes extremely negative it is time to buy.

Close

There appear to be buy on close orders.

There is merit to watching the pattern of market on close orders as they represent the day’s dominant net cumulative activity by many professionals and funds.

Gold

The momo crowd money flows in gold are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.

Smart money flows are 🔒 in gold since the Morning Capsule.

Oil

The momo crowd money flows in oil are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.

Smart money flows in oil are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.

Buy Zones And Buy Now Ratings

🔒

Nibbling

🔒

This post was published yesterday in The Arora Report paid services.  Since then the Morning Capsule has had an update in the paid services.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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