November 6, 2012

NEW IDEA ON VRINGO, OUR ROYALTY ESTIMATE $VRNG $AOL $GOOG $TGT $GCI

This post was just published on ZYX Short Sell Change Alert

A jury awarded Vringo (VRNG), $30M in past damages plus royalties on its patents until they expire in 2016, according to The Virginian-Pilot. The jury ordered Google (GOOG) to pay $15.9M, AOL (AOL) to pay $7.9M, and others including Target (TGT) and Gannett (GCI) to pay the remainder, though award is far lower than $5000 million Vringo had sought. This has become a cult stock and the cultists may hang their hat on 3.5% royalty to be paid till 2016.

Our estimate is that the royalty stream is worth about $100 million — not large enough to sustain present valuation.… Please click here or the title below to read more.

November 6, 2012

ROMNEY WIN WOULD SPARK TRADE WAR, TANK APPLE, GM AND FORD $AAPL $GM $F

A Romney win would hurt Appleand General Motors very badly. Both of these companies are highly dependent on China for their growth. Romney has repeatedly stated that he will declare China a currency manipulator on his first day in office. Such a declaration would likely lead to a trade war.

Chinese consumers are nationalistic. Japanese car makers are finding out the hard way because of a conflict between China and Japan over an uninhabited island. Toyota Motor’s sales in China fell 49% in September and 44% in October. General Motors benefited at the expense of Japanese manufacturers. Buick sales in China increased 7.7% to 60,510 units in October, Chevrolet increased sales by 8.3% to 54,660, and Cadillac sales increased by 20% to 2,491 units.… Please click here or the title below to read more.

November 6, 2012

HOW TO PLAY A POST-ELECTION STOCK MARKET $AAPL $C $CDE $ANR $FCG $GLD $JPM $LMT $CHK $TBF

Historical data shows that there is no statistically significant pattern as to what happens to the stock market one year after an election.

However, the data shows profits are consistently made by focusing on buying sectors that are favored by the winner and short-selling the sectors that are disfavored by the winner.

Here is the data for the S&P 500 SPX change one year after the start of a new presidential term.

2008: 26.5% gain

2004: 4.1% gain

2000: 15.6% loss

1996: 23.8% gain

1992: 5.7% gain

1988: 13.2% gain

1984: 16.8% gain

1980: 18.5% loss

Romney favors tighter monetary policy, declaring China as a currency manipulator, coal, the Keystone pipeline, and defense.… Please click here or the title below to read more.

November 6, 2012

SILVER MINER CDE FALLS OUT OF BED $CDE

This post was just published on ZYX Short Sell Change Alert

Silver miner CDE has fallen out of bed and has been down as much as $5.31. This morning profits at $28.50 were obviously taken too early.

We told you that more profits are ahead. From emails it appears that a large number of our subscribers are holding and have not taken profits. Congratulations to those who waited.

Those who have not taken profits may want to protect profits either by using a tight stop loss or exiting right here around $25.19 and exit the position.… Please click here or the title below to read more.

November 6, 2012

TAKE PARTIAL PROFITS ON SILVER $SLV

This post was just published on ZYX Short Sell Change Alert

Consider taking partial profits on a 15% tranche on SLV right here around $30.15. Futures equivalent is $31.18. After this profit taking 50% of the full core position size will be held.

The purpose of this profit taking is to reduce risk going into the election results.… Please click here or the title below to read more.

November 6, 2012

TAKE PROFITS ON SILVER MINER CDE AND EXIT THE POSITION $CDE

This post was just published on ZYX Short Sell Change Alert

CDE reported worse than expected earnings and revenues. In the premarket the stock has traded as low at $28. Consider taking profits and exiting the position right here around $28.50.

There are more profits to come, but it is prudent to not look a gift horse in the mouth since there are decent gains in one day. Further, we have other positions in the same group.… Please click here or the title below to read more.

November 6, 2012