February 8, 2016

This post was published on Friday on ZYX Buy Change Alert.

First and foremost, it is an important reminder that no one in the world, including us, knows with 100% certainty as to what is going to happen next.  In our 30+ years in the markets, the only way we have found to consistently make money is to think in terms of probabilities.

For those not well versed in probabilities, here are a few simple examples.

• 100% probability means the event will definitely happen.
• 0% probability means the event will definitely not happen.
• 20% probability means there is one in five chance of the event happening.