May 19, 2020

STOCK MARKET INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION TO SHIFT OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AWAY FROM POPULAR STOCKS $AMZN $CSCO $DIA $DJIA $FB $MRNA $MSFT $PTON $TDOC $WMT $WORK $ZM

STOCK MARKET INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION TO SHIFT OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AWAY FROM POPULAR STOCKS $AMZN $CSCO $DIA $DJIA $FB $MRNA $MSFT $PTON $TDOC $WMT $WORK $ZM

Money is beginning to shift away from stocks that did well while the economy shut down to fight coronavirus. The shifts have picked up since Moderna announced impressive data from a Phase 1 trial for a vaccine against coronavirus.

Now investors should look ahead to the post-vaccine world: Sell stocks that are hot today but will experience deteriorating earnings momentum after a vaccine comes out and buy quality stocks with good balance sheets that will experience positive earnings momentum in that new era.

This chart compares the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF DIA to seven stocks that I am using to illustrate shifts in money flows.

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VACCINE SUCCESS MAY UNLEASH THE SECOND LEG OF THE FORCE TO PROPEL THE STOCK MARKET TO NEW HIGHS $JNJ $PFE $MRNA $NVAX $INO $SRNE $DIA

VACCINE SUCCESS MAY UNLEASH THE SECOND LEG OF THE FORCE TO PROPEL THE STOCK MARKET TO NEW HIGHS $JNJ $PFE $MRNA $NVAX $INO $SRNE $DIA

Many investors not familiar with the mechanics of short squeezes are confused by the strength of the stock market rally that began after the S&P 500 hit a coronavirus low on March 23. Short-squeeze-related actions were the force that unleashed the strong rally.

As the market continues to rally, the odds that the stock market will set a new record within the next two months are rising. I see it as 55% now, up from just 30% on May 13. As impressive as that rapid shift is, I will wait until the odds reach 70% to my call.

What will push the likelihood to 70%?

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