IS THE RECESSION OVER? IS JOBS DATA FLAWED? HERE IS WHERE TO HUNT FOR STOCK MARKET OPPORTUNITIES $DJIA $DIA $ADP $SPY $IWM $RSP $RUT $QQQ
Here’s the key question for stock market investors: “Is the recession over?” Unless the data change, the answer appears to be “yes” at this time.
The stock market rallied Friday on stunningly strong May jobs data, which economists got completely backwards. There were some flaws in the calculations, but bears shouldn’t take comfort.
The jobs data are a lagging indicator. Leading economic indicators and high-frequency economic indicators are running significantly stronger than expectations. In the middle of May I wrote: “Here’s what it will take for the stock market to hit a new record within two months.” The Nasdaq COMP, has already hit a new intraday high, and the S&P 500 Index SPX isn’t far behind.
June 8, 2020