To gain an edge, this is what you need to know now.
Guidance Change
The probability has increased to 55% that a tradable rally can occur from here purely on technicals. The macro picture has not changed and still calls for a lower stock market. If a rally does occur, based on the macro picture as of this writing, the rally is likely to fail around 4000 level in the S&P 500. As a reference, S&P 500 is trading at 3681 as of this writing. This equates to about an 8.6% rally. Most of the time, signals are given when the probability reaches 70%, but sometimes exceptions are made.