March 9, 2023

By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Flawed Recession Analysis

Please click here for a chart of industrial select sector ETF XLI.

Note the following:

• The chart shows the high that industrial stocks made in January 2022.
• The chart shows that industrials are only 5% from the high even though the stock market is down significantly more.
•  There are four parts to the business cycle:
  • Early cycle
  • Mid cycle
  • Late cycle
  • Recession
• Right now, the economy is in the late cycle.
• Historically, industrial stocks do poorly in the late cycle.