August 22, 2025

INTERIM CAPSULE: POWELL IS DOVISH — SIGNALS RATE CUT

In his Jackson Hole speech, Powell is dovish. Powell is signaling a rate cut in September. Powell is giving the Bulls most, but not all of what they wanted.

In The Arora Report analysis, there is now a 95% rate cut in September. Only if the September inflation data is significantly worse than expectations, the rate cut may not happen.

Here are the money flows:

Money is flowing into stocks
Money is flowing into bonds
Money is flowing into gold
Money is flowing into cryptos
Money is flowing out of the dollar

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August 22, 2025

CRITICAL POWELL SPEECH AHEAD, NVIDIA H20 HITS A WALL, MIT THROWS COLD WATER ON AI STOCK BULLS

By Nigam Arora

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Critical Powell Speech Ahead

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows when the rotation started in SPY from tech stocks to other groups such as healthcare, small caps, and interest rate sensitive stocks in advance of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
Since tech stocks carry such a heavy weight in the S&P 500, the chart shows that although rotation stopped the stock market from going higher, the pullback is shallow.

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August 22, 2025