By Nigam Arora
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Extreme Positive Sentiment Returns
Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Note the following:
- The chart shows QQQ almost touched the upper band of zone 1 (support).
- The chart shows that today QQQ is bouncing.
- It is a positive for the stock market that QQQ did not dip into the support zone.
- Yesterday, oral arguments in the Supreme Court case on Trump tariffs were heard. With the justices asking tough questions of President Trump’s attorney, the likelihood of a ruling in favor of the tariffs has decreased. At a low during oral arguments, on the betting market Polymarket placed the likelihood of Trump winning at 18% and Kalshi at 20%.
- Investors celebrated by buying stocks on the reduced likelihood of a favorable ruling on Trump tariffs. The Supreme Court ruling is expected in a matter of weeks.
- As we shared with you in yesterday’s Morning Capsule, it is important to remember:
If President Trump loses, there will be two crosscurrents. One one side, interest rates could rise because the bond market is counting on tariff revenue. On the other side, inflation may come down and profitability of corporations may go up.
- As we have been sharing with you, prudent investors need to keep in mind if President Trump loses, he has many other avenues to impose tariffs available to him under the law.
- In The Arora Report analysis, in a market that is not staying down for long, the celebration of a potential ruling against tariffs shifted the sentiment from very positive back to extreme positive.
- October this year saw more job losses than any other October in two decades. The primary reason is AI. Right now, the stock market does not care. However, prudent investors need to ask this question: With more and more people losing jobs, isn’t it going to start impacting corporate earnings?
- Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said that China will win the AI war. He back tracked when a backlash erupted. No one in the U.S. wants to hear China will win in AI.
- Yesterday, hedge funds aggressively bought stocks that are favored by the retail momo crowd. Knowing that the retail momo crowd buys on momentum and media pump without doing any legitimate analysis, hedge funds are simply front running, hoping to sell these stocks to the retail momo crowd at higher prices.
- Prudent investors should note that some AI pioneers are claiming that human level artificial general intelligence (AGI) is already here. Investors should keep a keen eye as this has major implications for the stock market. AGI will cause significant job losses, leaving fewer people to pay taxes and spend money to fuel the U.S. economy. One idea that is floating around is to start taxing AI agents.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
England
The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, which is inline with consensus.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6840 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000 and 7200 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.
DJIA futures are up 33 points.
Gold futures are at $4023, silver futures are at $48.42, and oil futures are at $60.06.
Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.
