By Nigam Arora
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Yellow Flag
Please click here for a chart of Eightco Holdings (OCTO).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of OCTO is being used to illustrate the point.
- The chart shows the huge move up in OCTO stock.
- The move up turned this $4M company into an $8B crypto giant overnight.
- Eightco sold 185M shares at $1.46. Investors ran it up as high as $82.98 before the stock pulled back. OCTO is trading at $48.60 as of this writing in the premarket.
- The price range shown on the chart indicates tremendous volatility.
- Investors are excited that the company will buy Worldcoin.
- Worldcoin itself moved up 46% on excitement.
- Worldcoin is the crypto issued by a project run by Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI. World intends to scan irises of human beings and use the iris scans for human identification. To persuade people to scan their irises, people get Worldcoins.
- In The Arora Report analysis, for a moment setting aside privacy concerns, there is a potential for a database of iris scans for personal identity. However, investors are forgetting they are not getting shares in a company that is building the iris database. Investors are simply owning shares of a company that will own coins created out of thin air.
- In The Arora Report analysis, enthusiasm for OCTO shares is an indication of extreme positive market sentiment where investors have thrown all caution to the wind. For prudent investors, this is another yellow flag. Consider paying attention to the Arora Protection Band.
- Apple (AAPL) will announce the thinnest iPhone ever at its event today. Depending upon how investors respond to the event, the event has the potential to move AAPL stock, and in turn, all tech stocks.
- Prudent investors are eagerly awaiting Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data that is ahead. The momo crowd continues to aggressively buy stocks.
- There are important earnings from Oracle (ORCL) after the close.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT),Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
Gold is at a record high.
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6507 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6700 and 7000 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.
DJIA futures are up 12 points.
Gold futures are at $3691, silver futures are at $41.61, and oil futures are at $63.16.
Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.