DON’T GET EXCITED ABOUT APPLE FALLING SHORT OF IPHONE 5 SALES FORECASTS

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Apple (AAPL) sold five million iPhone 5s in just three days after the launch.  iPhone was available only in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, the U.K. and the U.S. Apple will release iPhone 5 in 22 more countries on September 28.  By the end of the year, iPhone 5 will be available in over 100 countries.

Anecdotal evidence shows that the initial demand for iPhone 5 exceeded the supply available, with total sales so far exceeding what the iPhone 4S sold in its entire first month.

The foregoing are impressive statistics by any means.  The only fly in the ointment is that some analysts were projecting around 10 million iPhone 5 sales in this period.  The whisper numbers were even higher.  I received emails projecting as many as 15 million iPhone 5 sales.

The reaction in the stock was predictable.  It dipped to the first support around $681 and then bounced to the first resistance around $695

How can analysts be so wrong? Their estimates were twice as high as the reality.

In my opinion, analysts are honest people who work hard to come up with their estimates.  In the prevailing bullish environment relating to Apple stock, being bearish on Apple is career suicide.  Business is generated by coming up with higher and higher estimates on Apple.  Analysts are human and they are affected by what their clients demand.

Apple has finally reached a cult status like many stocks in the past…Read more at Forbes

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