EXITING ACOR WITH PROFIT RIGHT HERE AT $32.61.
Our negative thesis on Acordia Therapeutics (ACOR) has not changed. However we are positive on the group, therefore we will exit the entire position right here and plan to short again on spikes up. For readers’ convenience an earlier partial post is copied below:
Our thesis has not changed in that Ampyra is not a very good drug, although Wall Street has termed it a blockbuster drug.
In the short term, the bulls may be right. For the first time MS patients with difficulty in walking have hope. MS patients, in general tend to be very knowledgeable about new drugs and as such they are likely to demand that neurologists prescribe Ampyra. Anecdotal evidence supports that neurologists will initially cede to such requests.
We do not believe that prescription momentum will continue. Our analysis shows that after a while when patients have real experience with the drug, usage will start declining. It reminds us of Rogaine, the hair growing drug. It is clear that the drug has shown only a marginal benefit in a relatively small sample for such a complex disease. It is not clear that drug would have demonstrated any benefit over a larger sample using more comprehensive walking measurements. It appears that even the patients who benefit from the drug will not show any material improvement to their overall disability over a long period.
The wholesale acquisition cost-WAC-for AMPYRA-dalfampridine- Extended Release Tablets will be $1,056 per 30-day supply (60-count pill bottle), an annual cost of $12,850. It is an expensive drug for at best marginal benefit. Outside USA, it is likely that cost benefit analysis will severely hamper adoption, and as such analyst estimates appear too high.
For the above reasons, we will continue to add to short position on this stock especially on spikes up. However, conservative accounts may not want to follow this recommendation as the company is highly promotional and there is always a possibility of it being acquired.
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