By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
New Tariffs
Please click here for a chart comparing gold ETF (GLD) to bitcoin ETF (IBIT).
Note the following:
- The chart shows gold has outperformed bitcoin in 2025 by 13.92%.
- The higher the volatility, the higher return prudent investors demand to compensate for higher volatility.
- The chart shows bitcoin has been very volatile. In contrast, gold has had very low volatility – just a smooth rise.
- The chart proves that the unthinkable for smart crypto bulls has happened. Smart crypto bulls had been basking in their glory that the Trump family, many cabinet members, many congressmen, and Wall Street had positioned themselves to heavily profit from cryptos. There is no data that shows that the powerful people in the U.S. are positioned to profit from rising gold. As a matter of fact, it appears that some on Wall Street have been shorting gold. If the foregoing was not enough, with hundreds of millions of dollars of campaign contributions, crypto bulls have convinced President Trump to set up a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve. Crypto bulls have been pushing for the U.S. government to sell its gold to finance a bitcoin buying spree. In addition, both the meme crowd and momo crowd have been aggressively buying cryptos.
- The chart shows that in the face of the foregoing, gold has outperformed the biggest crypto, i.e. bitcoin.
- For gold to outperform bitcoin has been unthinkable for smart crypto bulls. Afterall, their argument has been that gold is useless and that is why the U.S. government should sell its gold and buy bitcoin.
- Here is how the unthinkable has happened.
- Foreign central banks, including those in China, India, Turkey, and Poland, have been buying gold.
- Smart money is buying gold all across the globe.
- For those who want next level information on the very important subject of investing in bitcoin and gold, there are several podcasts available in Arora Ambassador Club. To get on the waitlist to join the club, please fill out the form below.
- The stock market’s attempt to break above the micro resistance zone and to run up aggressively is being hampered by two statements from Trump:
- Trump intends to impose 25% tariffs on autos, chips, and drugs starting in April.
- Trump is blaming Ukraine for starting the Russia Ukraine war.
- The foundation of this stock market is trust in Trump. Trump’s statement about Ukraine are beginning to bring the trust in Trump into question.
- FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET. At The Arora Report, we will be reading the report to gain insights into the Fed’s thinking. The minutes may be market moving.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Housing
Housing is weakening. Month-over-month single family housing starts dropped 8.4%. In addition to the data, the latest earnings from luxury home builder Toll Brothers (TOL) are significantly below whisper numbers. Here is the latest housing data:
- Housing starts came at 1.366M vs. 1.40M consensus.
- Building permits came at 1.483M vs. 1.45M consensus.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
Oil is being bought on supply concerns and a big bank claiming the Ukraine peace talks will not increase Russian oil supply. The consensus is that Trump’s efforts will increase oil supply from Russia.
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6134 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6256, 6500, and 6700: support levels are 6131, 6017, and 5926.
DJIA futures are down 92 points.
Gold futures are at $2951, silver futures are at $33.37, and oil futures are at $72.51.
Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular. The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.
Dr. Natasha Arora
Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.
