WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

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By Nigam Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

 

DOUBLE MANIA DRIVES STOCK MARKET, BOMBING IS A ‘LOVE TAP,’ STRONG JOBS REPORT RAISES SPECTER OF RATE HIKE

May 8, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Strong Jobs Report

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that as of this writing the stock market is going higher after the jobs report.
  • RSI on the chart shows there is room for the stock market to go higher.
  • The chart shows volume continues to be low.  As we have previously shared with you, the reason for low volume is the momo crowd buying options, not stocks.
  • Two manias occurring simultaneously are driving the stock market.
    • The first is the semiconductor mania.  The momo crowd believes semiconductor demand will continue forever.  The momo crowd is buying semiconductors based on the demand today and not thinking about demand tapering off in 2028.  The data just released from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), the largest manufacturer of advanced AI semiconductors for Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), saw April revenue down 1.1% from March.  The data shows TSM’s growth rate is slowing.  As you would expect in any mania, the momo crowd is oblivious.
    • The second mania is reckless call buying.  Call buying is hitting a record. When the stock market starts moving up even slightly, market makers who sold the calls to the momo crowd are forced to buy stocks to hedge.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, manias always go much farther than any rational investor would think.  Historically, most money is made in the late stages of a mania.  In the end, all manias unwind, hurting a vast majority of investors.  At this time, it is extremely important to have access to a reliable, objective source of analysis with a long proven track record.  
  • Yesterday, the U.S. bombed Iran as a retaliatory strike after U.S. Navy ships came under fire from Iran.   President Trump called it a “love tap.”  President Trump said the ceasefire was still in effect.  In The Arora Report analysis, the stock market take from the incident is to ignore any negative development in Iran.
  • After the love tap, Iran launched a missile and drone attack on the U.A.E.  Instead of selling, the news brought in buying in stock futures.
  • Prudent investors need to know the change in the pattern.  Before yesterday, a skirmish in the Middle East would cause an immediate, brief dip in the stock market.   Now, a skirmish in the Middle East brings buying into the stock market.  
  • The jobs report is known as the mother of all reports due to its importance.  Here are the details:
    • Non-farm payrolls came at 115K vs. 67K consensus.
    • Non-farm private payrolls came at 123K vs. 60K consensus.
    • Unemployment rate came at 4.3% vs. 4.3% consensus.
    • Average work week came at 34.3 vs. 34.2 consensus.
    • Average hourly earnings came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, this jobs report is strong.  This data, along with other data, shows that monetary conditions are too easy.  If the data continues to stay strong, it raises the specter of an interest rate hike.  Of course, this is going to put incoming Fed Chair Warsh in a difficult position – President Trump expects him to cut rates, but there is a high probability that the data may argue for a rate hike.  
  • Normally, this jobs report would have caused a stock market sell off because the stock market wants rate cuts and this jobs report is in favor of a rate hike.  These are not normal times – the stock market is in the middle of a double mania.  Today, buying came in after the strong jobs report.  
  • Prudent investors should note the pattern – all news, good or bad, brings in buying.  This is the result of extreme positive sentiment.  
  • University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.  Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band.  The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks.  It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks.  The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis.  When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet (GOOG) and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) in stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL).  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7409 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7500, 7700, and 7900 : support levels are 7200, 7000, and 6780.

DJIA futures are up 212 points.

Gold futures are at $4739, silver futures are at $81.79, and oil futures are at $94.90.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

See also  WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

 

WALL STREET CHASES IRAN DEAL PUMP INTO JOBS REPORT, CHINA PUMP AHEAD

May 7, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Stock Market Pumps

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows the stock market continues to rise.
  • The chart shows volume continues to be low.  The reason is the stock market rally is primarily driven by the momo crowd.  This time, the momo crowd is not buying stocks; they are aggressively buying call options.
  • RSI on the chart says the stock market has room to go higher.
  • Wall Street continues to pump an Iran deal to run up stocks.  Prudent investors should note that it is the umpteenth time the stock market has been bought on an Iran deal.  This is nothing new.  In bull markets, stocks are bought on the same news day after day.
  • The official jobs report, also known as the mother of all reports, is ahead and will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.  As is the momo crowd’s pattern, the momo crowd is buying stocks ahead of the jobs report. The jobs report presents both upside and downside potential for the stock market.  This is why prudent investors typically do not buy ahead of a jobs report.  In contrast, since the momo crowd does not take risk into account, they buy because they see only upside potential.
  • After the jobs report, China pump is ahead.  President Trump is going to China next week.  Next week, Wall Street will likely pump a China deal in addition to an Iran deal on top of the narrative that semiconductors are going to the moon.
  • Sentiment is extremely positive.  Extreme positive sentiment is a contrary signal, i.e. a sell signal.  It is worth a reminder that sentiment is not a precise timing indicator.  Sentiment can stay extremely positive for a long time.  In The Arora Report analysis, for prudent investors, here are the guidelines: 
    • Aggressively buy strategic positions when sentiment is extremely negative.  
    • Be very careful in starting new strategic positions when sentiment is extremely positive.  
    • Use periods of extreme positive sentiment to slowly take partial profits.  
    • Tactical positions can be started during extremely positive sentiment periods because tactical positions have controlled risk with close stops.  
  • Oil is pulling back on the prospect of an Iran deal.  The pullback in oil is causing yields to fall and bonds to rise.  This is giving investors another reason to buy stocks.
  • Initial jobless claims came at 200K vs. 205K consensus.  The stock market likes this number because unlike the prior week, jobless claims did not fall to an inordinately low number.  The number last week was the lowest since 1969.
  • Among after hour earnings today, data center company CoreWeave (CRWV) is important.  Details of CoreWeave earnings will give insights into the apparently insatiable demand for compute.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.  Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band.  The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks.  It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks.  The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis.  When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL).  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7400 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7500 and 7700 : support levels are 7200, 7000, and 6780.

DJIA futures are up 121 points.

Gold futures are at $4758, silver futures are at $82.00, and oil futures are at $90.27.

 

SEMI MANIA REACHES 2000 CRASH LEVEL, U.S. IRAN PROPOSAL DRIVES STOCKS AND BONDS HIGHER AND OIL LOWER

May 6, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Semiconductor Mania Grows

Please click here for a chart of leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows a 312% gain as of this writing in the premarket in leveraged semiconductor ETF SOXL since the March 30 low.
  • The gap up shown this morning on the chart is driven by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) earnings.  AMD earnings were below whisper numbers.  Initially, AMD stock dropped after the earnings release, but the dip was aggressively bought as semiconductor mania is in full swing – any semiconductor company that has any news, even bad news, is seeing aggressive buying.  AMD’s conference call was extraordinarily bullish.   It is no longer only GPUs for AI.  CPU demand is seeing an extraordinary rise.  Pay attention to this statement from AMD’s CEO Lisa Su, “We now expect the server CPU TAM to grow at greater than 35% annually, reaching over $120 billion by 2030.”  The statement from Su is also driving Intel (INTC) and Arm (ARM) stocks higher.  
  • AMD stock is in ZYX Buy in the portfolio that surrounds the Core Model Portfolio.  AMD is long from an average of $205.52.  It is trading at $416.96 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 103%.
  • Memory and disk drive stocks Micron (MU), Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), and Seagate Technology (STX) are seeing extremely aggressive buying.  MU stock is in ZYX Buy in the portfolio that surrounds the Core Model Portfolio.  MU is long from an average of $21.77.  It is trading at $670.47 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 2980%.
  • Semiconductor mania is now in full swing and has reached pre-2000 crash level by several measures, including fundamental, technical, and quantitative.  The semiconductor index now has a PE of 37.  Does this mean semiconductors are going to crash again?  In The Arora Report analysis, a major pullback can happen anytime, but the probability of a 2000-style major crash is low due to AI demand.  
  • The Arora Report portfolios are very heavy in semiconductors.  Semiconductor ETF SMH in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio has a gain of 6699% as of this writing in the premarket.
  • The plan is to start trade around positions on any major dip in semiconductors.  Trade around positions are a billionaire and hedge fund technique used to dramatically increase returns and reduce risk.   Please see Trade Management Guidelines for more.
  • RSI on the chart shows semiconductors are overbought but have more room to run.
  • As a member of The Arora Report, you were already ahead of the curve.  Starting in 2022, The Arora Report high conviction call has been a fortune is to be made in AI all the way to 2030.  Now, you need to get ahead in semiconductors – the mistake investors are making is assuming that the present level of demand is going to continue for a very long time.  In The Arora Report analysis, the demand will start tapering off in 2028.  Sometime before then, it will be important to take more profits and hedge long semiconductor positions.  There will be an extraordinary opportunity to make a fortune by short selling semiconductors.  Just like an athlete trains ahead of a big event, investors need to consider developing significant short selling expertise ahead of the upcoming major opportunity.  In short selling, it takes time to learn, and once you learn, you need to stay in practice.  The best way to learn is to read the signals in ZYX Short.  If you are not experienced in short selling and are just starting a ZYX Short membership, consider not trading any signals for a long time but use the signals to learn.
  • The U.S. is advancing a proposal for a one page memorandum of understanding with Iran that will open the Strait of Hormuz.  This proposal is generating significant optimism.  As a result, there is aggressive buying in stocks and bonds and aggressive selling in oil.  Aggressive buying in bonds is bringing yields lower.  Yesterday, we shared with you the chart of 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), showing long bonds were in the danger zone.  The U.S. proposal is causing a rally in TLT.
  • The U.S. Treasury is offering $125B of Treasury securities to refund $83.3B of privately held Treasury notes maturing on May 15.  In The Arora Report analysis, this offering is inline with expectations and should not have any impact on the markets even though $125B is a large amount
  • ADP is the largest private payroll processor in the country.  ADP uses its data to provide a glimpse of the official jobs report that will be released on Friday at 8:30am ET.  The just released ADP data came stronger than expected.  ADP Employment Change came at 109K vs. 79K consensus.
  • In important earnings, Disney (DIS), Uber (UBER), and Novo Nordisk (NVO) are reporting earnings better than whisper numbers.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.  Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band.  The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
See also  WALL STREET CHASES IRAN DEAL PUMP INTO JOBS REPORT, CHINA PUMP AHEAD

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks.  It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks.  The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis.  When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL).  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a draw of 8.1M barrels vs. consensus of a draw of 2.8M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7342 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7500 and 7700 : support levels are 7200, 7000, and 6780.

DJIA futures are up 441 points.

Gold futures are at $4695, silver futures are at $77.09, and oil futures are at $94.41.

 

BONDS IN DANGER ZONE BUT OBLIVIOUS MOMO CROWD BUYING ON IRAN CEASEFIRE HOLDING AFTER SKIRMISHES

May 5, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Bonds In Danger Zone

Please click here for a chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that not only is TLT in the danger zone but TLT is hitting the low band of the danger zone.  The yield on 30 year U.S. Treasuries has reached over 5%.
  • So far, the momo crowd is obvious to long bond yields rising above 5% and is aggressively buying stocks.
  • RSI on the chart shows TLT is very oversold.  This means there is a reasonable probability of a bounce in TLT.  If such a bounce occurs, all will likely be temporarily well with the stock market.
  • If TLT breaks below the danger zone, the stock market will take notice and there will be a high probability of smart money selling overcoming momo crowd buying.
  • President Trump is reluctant to restart the war in Iran and is deciding to overlook Iran’s ceasefire violations.
  • General Daniel Caine says Iran attacked commercial vessels nine times and U.S. forces ten times.
  • The momo crowd is celebrating by buying stocks on the U.S. choosing to ignore Iran’s ceasefire violations and not escalate.
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and JOLTS job openings will be released today at 10am and may be market moving.
  • In important news, Apple (AAPL) is considering using Intel’s (INTC) foundry for chips.  INTC is in ZYX Buy in the portfolio that surrounds the Core Model Portfolio.  INTC is long from an average of $19.05.  INTC is trading at $99.51 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a 422% gain.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.  Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band.  The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks.  It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks.  The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis.  When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

See also  WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL).  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7261 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7500 and 7700 : support levels are 7200, 7000, and 6780.

DJIA futures are up 171 points.

Gold futures are at $4574, silver futures are at $73.88, and oil futures are at $103.27.

 

NEW IRAN DEVELOPMENTS TEMPER MOMO DRIVEN STOCK MARKET RALLY

May 4, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Tempered Rally

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows the rally attempted in the early trade today was tempered.
  • The chart shows the volume continues to be low.  In The Arora Report analysis, one reason for the low volume is that investors do not have conviction in this rally.  Instead of buying stocks, they are aggressively buying call options.  As investors aggressively buy call options, dealers who are selling the calls buy stocks to hedge.
  • Early this morning, the momo crowd was very aggressively buying stocks, especially semiconductor stocks such as Intel (INTC), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Sandisk (SNDK), and Micron (MU), but then the news hit that Iran had struck a U.S. warship.  Stocks fell and oil rose on the news  The U.S. denied the news; stocks rose again, and oil fell.
  • As of this writing, selling is again coming into the stock market on a report of the U.A.E. issuing a missile threat.
  • The U.S. is saying it will guide neutral ships that are stuck in the Strait of Hormuz.  This guidance is supposed to be electronic.  Iran, in turn, is warning the U.S. to stay out of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • In an important development, China is ordering its companies to not obey U.S. sanctions.  Sanctions have been a major tool of U.S. foreign policy. China is taking this and other confrontational steps ahead of the Trump Xi meeting.  History shows that after the summit, the steps are often taken back, allowing both sides to declare victory.
  • Meme stock GameStop (GME) is making a buyout offer for eBay (EBAY).  eBay is four times the size of GameStop.  Stock market bears see this as a potential sign of a stock market top.
  • Bulls are encouraged by very strong earnings so far this earnings season.  However, prudent investors should note these strong earnings are concentrated in AI stocks.
  • Among important earnings, AI software Palantir (PLTR) reports after hours today.  Palantir carries the burden of proving that it should not be grouped with other software stocks and the selloff in PLTR stock is unjustified.  PLTR is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long from an average of $20.15.  PLTR is trading at $147.35 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 631%.  There is also a trade around position in PLTR.  Trade around positions are a technique used by billionaires and hedge funds to dramatically increase returns and reduce risk.
  • Amazon (AMZN) is opening its logistics services to outside businesses.  This is bringing in selling in United Parcel Service (UPS) and FedEx (FDX).  Companies such as Procter & Gamble (PG) and 3M (MMM) are already using Amazon logistics services.
  • The mother of all numbers, the jobs report, will be released on Friday at 8:30am ET.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.  Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band.  The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks.  It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks.  The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis.  When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL).  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) briefly spiked above $80K before pulling back.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7250 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7500 and 7700 : support levels are 7200, 7000, and 6780.

DJIA futures are down 166 points.

Gold futures are at $4576, silver futures are at $74.21, and oil futures are at $103.62.

 

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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