By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Artificial Intelligence Tipping Point
Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
- The chart shows when NVDA pulled back on extreme positioning prior to the earnings release. Please read yesterday’s Morning Capsule for details.
- The chart shows NVDA fell below the trendline prior to the release of earnings, triggering many sell signals in traditional technical analysis. This is a perfect illustration as to why it is important to not depend only on traditional technical analysis. Investors should use a sophisticated system such as ZYX Change Method with six comprehensive screens. Please click here to see the six screens of the ZYX Change Method.
- The chart shows the jump up after the earnings release after hours yesterday.
- Nvidia beat earnings. Here are the details:
- NVDA beat whisper numbers. Revenue came at $22.1B vs. $22B whisper number. Earnings are at $5.16 vs. $5 whisper number. As we have written before, whisper numbers were much higher than consensus.
- For the current quarter, NVDA is forecasting $24B at the midpoint vs. $22.2B consensus.
- Data center results were higher due to demand for Nvidia GPUs for generative AI.
- Hyperscalers accounted for more than half the data center revenue.
- In The Arora Report analysis, there is a great surprise in NVDA earnings that demands investors’ attention.
- AI inference shipments were about 40% of AI related shipments.
- The consensus for AI inference shipments was 5%.
- In plain English, AI inference means AI trained models are actually being used.
- AI inference correlates with revenue generation. In contrast, AI training correlates to capital spend.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the inference shipment data indicates that AI is being adopted much faster than anybody anticipated before yesterday evening.
- In The Arora Report analysis, if the competition does not heat up, NVDA is on track to achieve $45 – $50 in earnings in 2027. If this comes true, on this basis, NVDA is the cheapest tech stock. Of course the reality is that competition will heat up. Nonetheless, investors need to be aware that based on the current trajectory, NVDA is not an expensive stock.
- A fortune is to be made in artificial intelligence over the next six years. However, it will not be a straight line. Many investors will lose their shirts. It is imperative that investors rapidly increase their investing knowledge about AI. The big problem investors face is that everyone has their own agenda. It is extremely difficult to find objective knowledge that helps investors. The easiest way to build your AI investing knowledge is to listen to the podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club. To join the waitlist to become a club members, please click here.
- Nvidia earnings are overshadowing everything else.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band.
FOMC Minutes
The FOMC minutes were hawkish and do not support momo gurus’ narrative of near term rate cuts. Expect momo gurus to come up with a new narrative to run up the stock market. Keep in mind that momo gurus’ real job is to persuade their followers to buy stocks under the disguise of analysis.
Jobless Claims
Initial claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories. In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions. Please click here to see how this is achieved. One of the reasons behind The Arora Report’s unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model. Most models on Wall Street are static. They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.
Initial claims came at 201K vs. 216K consensus. This indicates that the jobs picture is very strong, especially at the low end.
Japan
Japan’s Nikkei 225 crossed its high from 1989 for the first time in 34 years. There is an important lesson for investors here. Investors have come to believe that bear markets are short, but that is looking backwards through recent U.S. history. Looking forward, given rising national debt and reckless government spending, there is a fair probability of a long bear market in the U.S. Therefore, it is imperative that investors increase their knowledge and access to a resource such as The Arora Report that has a long track record of making money in both bull and bear markets.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), NVDA, Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound and seeing buying based on positive sentiment emanating from NVDA earnings.
There is speculation that bitcoin may see some selling as investors sell bitcoin to buy NVDA.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2037, silver futures are at $23.02, and oil futures are at $77.74.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5062 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5400, and 5500 : support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.
DJIA futures are up 198 points.
Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.
Dr. Natasha Arora
Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.
