By Nigam Arora
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Key Earnings Data
Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
- The chart shows NVDA stock has given up recent gains.
- The chart shows NVDA stock is at the top band of zone 1 (support).
- RSI on the chart shows NVDA stock is not yet oversold.
- Nvidia earnings will be reported tomorrow in the after market.
- As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve regarding AI related issues that are causing the current sell off in the stock market. Here is the summary:
- Overbuilding of AI data centers
- Debt financing of AI data center build
- Circular financing involving Nvidia
- Chip depreciation issues
- If earnings from Nvidia can alleviate these concerns, expect a very sharp rally in the stock market. On the other hand, if Nvidia earnings heighten these concerns, expect a sharp drop in the stock market. This underscores the importance of the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band strikes the optimum balance based on probabilities of different scenarios.
- Start with Arora’s Second Law of Investing and Trading, which states, “Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets.”
- Follow with Arora’s Third Law of Investing and Trading, which states, “Making investing and trading decisions based on probabilities is the only realistic and profitable approach.”
- Home Depot (HD) earnings show the consumer is weakening. Here are the details:
- For FY26, Home Depot sees earnings per share down 5% year-over-year to $14.48 vs. $14.98 consensus.
- Q3 earnings came at $3.74 per share vs. $3.84 consensus.
- FY25 sales growth came at 3% vs. 2.8% prior.
- Revenue came at $41.35B vs. $41.15B consensus.
- Customer transactions decreased 1.4%.
- Shopper spend on an average receipt increased to $90.39 year-over-year vs. $88.65 prior.
- Additional data on the consumer will come from Lowe’s (LOW) and Target (TGT) earnings in the premarket tomorrow and Walmart (WMT) earnings in the premarket on Thursday.
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending on Oct. 18 came at 232K vs. 219K prior.
- The data from ADP for the four weeks ending November 1, 2025 shows job loss of 2500 jobs per week.
- Concerns about private credit are heightened after Blue Owl Capital (OWL) made a restrictive move. Blue Owl is financing AI data centers.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
China And Japan
China is sending ships to disputed islands with Japan. China is also warning its citizens against traveling to Japan. Prudent investors should keep a close eye – a flare up between China and Japan can drag the stock market significantly lower.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. If such buying is very aggressive, the indicator will turn positive. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) continues to see selling.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6661 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.
DJIA futures are down 349 points.
Gold futures are at $4067, silver futures are at $50.17, and oil futures are at $59.93.
Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.
