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THE REAL REASON APPLE IS FALLING $AAPL $JBL $CHL

December 19, 2013

Wednesday was supposed to be the glory day for Apple. After seven years of negotiations, China Mobile was supposed to announce an agreement to carry Apple’s iPhone. So far, there is no announcement, but the announcement may come later. The real reason Apple is falling is not China Mobile, but an earnings report from Apple supplier Jabil Circuit. Jabil makes moldings for Apple iPhones. Jabil’s JBL earnings report was awful. Jabil sees second-quarter EPS of $0.05 to $0.15 vs. a consensus of $0.52; sees revenue of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion vs. a consensus of $4.28 billion. Jabil stock has responded by falling

A NEW IDEA ON JOHNSON CONTROLS $JCI $F

December 18, 2013

This post was just published on ZYX Short Change Alert. JCI is an automotive component manufacturer. Forward looking guidance from Ford this morning was below expectations. Consider scaling into a position up to 40% of the full core position size in the zone of $50 to $52.50. Stop zone is $53.26 to $53.76. Target zone is $38 to $39. The stock is trading at $50.47 as of this writing.

REASONS TO SELL APPLE AND ITS SUPPLIER AVAGO $AAPL $AVGO $CHL $LSI

December 18, 2013

It is time to take partial profits, especially on short-term trades on Apple AAPL and its supplier Avago. In the case of Apple, China Mobile CHL is likely to officially announce tomorrow that it will carry iPhone. In the case of Avago, it just almost doubled its size by acquiring LSI (LSI). Professionals often surround their long-term positions with short-term positions to increase returns. The two calls herein are for short-term positions. Opinions about China Mobile vary. My analysis detailed in Why Not To Get Excited About Apple’s China Mobile Deal showed that China Mobile may account for only $1 to $2 incremental earnings for Apple after the initial surge. As a

RESTAURANT BUSINESS NO FREE LUNCH FOR APPLE $AAPL $OPEN $ORCL $SAP $IBM

December 16, 2013

On December 12, the Patently Apple AAPL website was first to report that Apple had filed for a restaurant-related patent. The stock market smelled what was cooking. The stock of Open Table, which specializes in restaurant reservations, fell from a high of $80.20 to a low of $74.65 before staging a mild recovery. In social media, Apple bulls cheered the development. Apple needs a new revenue stream and restaurants are a big opportunity. A decade ago, when the first indications that Apple might be going after the music business appeared they were not taken seriously by investors. It was dismissed as speculation. Then came iTunes. It totally

REBALANCE WITH CASH — NOT BONDS — BEFORE YEAR END $TLT

December 16, 2013

Rebalancing between bonds and cash at year-end is quite common. Traditionally some practitioners have suggested a higher proportion of bonds as an investor ages. A split of 60% for stocks and 40% for bonds is quite popular. In a year like 2013 when stocks have been up strongly, to maintain the desired split between stocks and bonds, stocks will have to be sold and bonds added at the end of the year. This year, I recommend against this traditional rebalancing in favor of bonds. The reason is that bonds are likely at the end of a long bull market. Going

GERMAN REGULARS PROBE GOLD AND SILVER PRICE MANIPULATION, IGNORE CONSPIRACIES AND FOCUS ON THREE POINTS $GLD $SLV #GOLD #SILVER

December 16, 2013

There is no shortage of conspiracy theories related to gold and silver. However, I have never found much credible substance in such theories. For the first time in recent years, there is a report that is worth monitoring. German regulators are investigating Deutsche Bank regarding gold and silver price manipulation. This is important because Deutsche Bank is one of only three banks involved in London silver fixing, and one of the five banks involved in London gold fixing. HSBC and Bank of Nova Scotia are the other two banks that fix silver prices. In addition to the foregoing names, Barclays

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: HOUSE PASSES BUDGET, INFLATION UNDER CONTROL, SENTIMENT OVERLY POSITIVE $GLD $SLV $USO $DIA $SPY $QQQ $TBF $TBT

December 13, 2013

(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. ) HOUSE PASSES BUDGET, INFLATION UNDER CONTROL, SENTIMENT OVERLY POSITIVE December 13, 2013 The House passed the budget deal; this is causing mild optimism in the stock market. Core PPI came at 0.1% vs. 0.1% consensus. This shows that inflation is under control. Core PPI has a significant weight in our model, the theory is that inflation shows up in producer prices before it shows up in consumer prices. Our proprietary sentiment indicators are reaching overly positive territory.

CURVED SCREEN COMING IN SAMSUNG GALAXY S5 BUT NOT IN APPLE IPHONE 6 $AAPL $GTAT

December 13, 2013

Apple investors need to be alert to both positive and negative upcoming fundamental developments, one of which may give a boost to Samsung’s mobile fortunes. An upcoming negative development for Apple AAPL is the potential release of the Samsung Galaxy S5 with a curved screen, which the iPhone currently does not have. In terms of positive developments, Apple just won a patent for producing a curved screen. Here is an abstract of the patent number 8,603,574. “A method of forming a curved touch surface is disclosed. The method can include depositing and patterning a conductive thin film on a flexible substrate to