Market Blog » The Arora Report Stock Market News

MANAGEMENT OF THE GOLD TRADE, $GCZ9, $GLD.

November 9, 2009

On very short term trades, the difference between making money and losing money is trade management. Based on the ZYX Change Method trade management guidelines, 5% short should have been scaled in at $1082.5 and another 5% at $1100. The method suggested aggressively shorting just below $1105. and a stop zone starting just above $1105. However, the market did not cooperate as gold futures gaped higher. Based on the methodology an aggressive short position of 50% is taken at $1111. with a tight stop zone starting at $1115. Based on the price action, it is prudent to start scaling out

LONG ON $CVS (CVS CAREMARK)

November 9, 2009

As per our earlier post, we are long $CVS from $28.56 based on our funds flow screen being overwhelming positive. The scale in is only 20% of the full position.The stock did not go lower to build a full position. Our trade management plan is to take the profits based on our fund flows and technical screens, and then patiently wait for the stock to go lower to reenter www.thearorareport.com THE ARORA REPORT, Ltd. HOME OF THE UNIQUE ZYX CHANGE METHOD DEDICATED SOLELY TO PROFIT FROM CHANGE BY TRADING AND INVESTING VERIFIABLE PERFORMANCE RECORD Every closed trade since 2007, without

IMPLICATIONS OF $CVS (CVS CAREMARK) LOSS OF PBM CONTRACTS

November 5, 2009

$CVS on earnings conference call this morning highlighted that $CVS expects $4.5Billion in PBM contract losses. Big customer losses are Chrysler, State of NJ, and Coventry. Further, the company expects $1.7Billion loss from Medicare Part D. There are significant implications here presenting themselves to long term investors. Clearly $MHS (Medco Health) and $ESRX (Express Scripts) are taking share away from $CVS. The perception in the market place is that scripts costs more from a retail/mail PBM model. Theoretically retail/PBM model of $CVS should offer competitive advantage over pure mail PBM model of $ESRX and $MHS. Our ZYX Change Analysis validates

INDIA BUYS 200 TONS OF GOLD ($GLD, $GC_F)

November 3, 2009

Gold has spiked on the news that Reserve Bank of India bought 200 tons of gold from IMF. On October 26, 2009 we reduced gold allocation to zero in our Multi Asset Global Allocation Model. At that time, we knew that IMF was planning to sell 400 tons of gold. This information was theTrigger Event in our changing gold allocation to zero. We did contemplate that India, China and Brazil were the likely buyers. At this time, we do not know who is the buyer of the remaining 200 tons and the price paid. We were of the opinion that

HATE MAIL ON UPDATES TO ALLOCATION MODELS

October 30, 2009

On Oct 26,2009, we increased short allocation on our Equities Long Short Allocation Model. On Oct 26, we also reduced allocations to oil, gold, copper and emerging markets to zero. Yesterday, Dow Jones Average went up 200 points, oil went up, gold went up and emerging markets went up strongly. We received a lot of hate mail from bullish traders. Today Dow Jones Average at the time of this writing is down 235 points, oil is down and gold is down; but no fan mails from the traders who sent us hate mails yesterday. We want to make two points.

CONSIDER TAKING PROFITS AND EXITING THE REST OF GRMN (GARMIN) RIGHT HERE AT $31

October 28, 2009

www.thearorareport.com THE ARORA REPORT, Ltd. HOME OF THE UNIQUE ZYX CHANGE METHOD DEDICATED SOLELY TO PROFIT FROM CHANGE BY TRADING AND INVESTING VERIFIABLE PERFORMANCE RECORD Every closed trade since 2007, without exception, is included in the performance results. Number of winning positions: 162 Number of losing positions: 10 Average annualized % return per position: 296.77% ………………Check out details .

CONSIDER TAKING PARTIAL PROFITS ON $GRMN (GARMIN)

October 28, 2009

Per our earlier post, those following ZYX methodology, should have scaled in a 25% short sale on $GRMN around $39.20. Unfortunately price did not spike any higher to build a full position. Today, the competitor $Tom Tom reported much worse than expected earnings. In sympathy, $GRMN shares are down to $33.80. We continue to be negative on $GRMN. However, $Tom Tom’s earnings were not as bad as they seem on the surface. $Tom Tom was affected significantly by currency translation. $GRMN is not likely to have unexpected currency translation adverse affects when it reports its earnings. In keeping with our

INTERMEDIATE TERM S&P TIMING MODEL HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED

October 26, 2009

Since August 2009 this model has not performed . In this period, the market has been liquidity driven and the model clearly does not perform in such a markert. This model is being discarded. www.thearorareport.com THE ARORA REPORT, Ltd. HOME OF THE UNIQUE ZYX CHANGE METHOD DEDICATED SOLELY TO PROFIT FROM CHANGE BY TRADING AND INVESTING VERIFIABLE PERFORMANCE RECORD Every closed trade since 2007, without exception, is included in the performance results. Number of winning positions: 162 Number of losing positions: 10 Average annualized % return per position: 296.77% ………………Check out details .