By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report. 

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

HOTTER PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, THE POWER OF ‘PICKS AND SHOVELS’ PLAY

February 16, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Hotter Inflation

Please click here for a chart of Applied Materials stock (AMAT).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of AMAT stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• As we have been sharing with you, Applied Materials is the best “picks and shovels” play in artificial intelligence.
• Artificial intelligence needs more sophisticated chips.  To manufacture more sophisticated chips, companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Intel (INTC) are buying more sophisticated equipment to manufacture the chips.  Applied Materials is a big beneficiary.
• The chart shows the big jump in AMAT stock on earnings.
• RSI on the chart shows that AMAT is overbought.
• The power of the demand for AI is reflected in the following earnings details from AMAT:
  • The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.13 vs. $1.90 consensus.
  • The company reported revenue of $6.71B vs. $6.48B consensus.
  • The company is forecasting revenue for the current quarter with a midpoint of $6.5B vs. $6.34B consensus.
• The strength in AMAT is pushing tech stocks higher, especially AI stocks.
• AMAT is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.  The power of buy zones and the Arora methodology of stock selection is evident from the fact that the stock was bought at an average price of $16.  As of this writing, the stock is trading at $209.94.  This represents a gain of 1212%.
• The rise in AMAT stock shows that “picks and shovels” is a great strategy.  It is a good idea for investors to understand this strategy deeply.  The best way to understand the “picks and shovels” strategy is to listen to podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club.  Several podcasts delve into this strategy.  To get on the waitlist to join Arora Ambassador Club.
• Producer Price Index (PPI) came hotter than expected, just as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) did on Tuesday.  Here are the details:
  • Headline PPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.1% consensus.
  • Core PPI came at 0.5% vs. 0.1% consensus.
• Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicated that the Fed is not in a rush to cut interest rates due the strong economy and strong labor market.  Bostic also warned that “victory is not clearly at hand.”
• University of Michigan consumer confidence will be released at 10am ET.  The data may be market moving.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Japan

Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit a new 34 year high and is approaching a new all time high.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and positive in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  Remember today is a Friday, and short squeezes tend to occur on Fridays. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2012, silver futures are at $23.00, and oil futures are at $77.39.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5034 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5400, and 5500 : support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are down 134 points.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

RETAIL SALES SHOCKER, STOCK MARKET PROVIDING OPPORTUNITIES BEYOND MAG SEVEN AND AI

February 15, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Retail Sales Shocker

Please click here for a chart of Uber stock (UBER).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of UBER stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• The chart shows the jump up in UBER stock on the news of the buy back.
• The chart shows the Arora buy zone and the power of buy zones. UBER is long in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio from $25.58.  UBER is trading at $78.75 as of this writing in the premarket. This represents a profit of 208%.
• UBER is a prime example and a key reminder to investors that there are opportunities beyond the magnificent seven and AI.  While the magnificent seven stocks and AI have been driving the stock market, there are opportunities for investors in less expensive stocks with better potential for risk adjusted returns.  The magnificent seven stocks are Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).
• There is apparently a new serious national security threat.  Read the section on Russia below.
• From a seasonality perspective, historically, the next two weeks tend to be weak in the stock market.  It will be interesting to see if the AI frenzy trumps seasonality.  In The Arora Report analysis, the main factor looking ahead is Nvidia earnings.  Please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule for details.  
• There is a new milestone in AI –Nvidia’s market cap is now higher than the market cap of Amazon and Alphabet.
• Weekly Initial Claims came at 212K vs. 221K consensus.  In The Arora Report analysis, the jobs picture continues to be strong, especially at the low end.  The jobs picture continues to be weak in IT.  
• The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.  For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to retail sales.  The consumer has been on a binge of excessive spending.  Momo gurus have been predicting that the consumer will continue with excessive spending.  At The Arora Report, we have been sharing with you that consumer liquidity is becoming less and will ultimately impact consumer spending.  The just released data on retail sales is a shocker and shows that The Arora Report call is spot on.  Here are the details of retail sales data:
  • Headline retail sales came -0.8% vs. -0.2% consensus.
  • Retail sales ex-auto came at -0.6% vs. 0.1% consensus.
• Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET and may be market moving.
• The U.K. and Japan are on track to enter technical recessions.  See the sections below.  This set of data may cause prudent investors to rethink the case of no recession in the U.S.  Historically, it is not uncommon for U.S. economic data to follow the U.K.’s economic data after a few months.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Russia

Yesterday, the stock market briefly dipped when House Intelligence Committee Chairman Michael Turner warned of a serious new national security threat.  He felt the threat was so serious that he asked President Biden to declassify the information about this threat. 

The momo crowd, apparently oblivious to the report, aggressively bought the shallow dip.  

At this time, it is not clear what the real threat is.  It appears that Turner is talking about Russia experimenting with nuclear energy in space to disable U.S. satellites.  The U.S. military is heavily dependent on satellites.  

Japan

Japan’s flash Q4 GDP came at -0.1% quarter-over-quarter vs. 0.2% consensus.  If the flash GDP is not revised upwards, Japan is on track to enter a technical recession.

U.K.

U.K. flash Q4 GDP came at -0.3% quarter-over-quarter vs. -0.1% consensus.  If the flash GDP is not revised upwards, the U.K. is on track to enter a technical recession.

Layoffs

Networking giant Cisco (CSCO) is laying off several thousand people due to slower demand.

Among financial firms, Morgan Stanley (MS) is laying off several hundred people.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in META, MSFT, and TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in AMZN and NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL and GOOG.

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is now over $52,000.  Bitcoin memes believe that bitcoin whales are set to drive bitcoin to $65,000.

There is aggressive buying in bitcoin miners.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2010, silver futures are at $22.76, and oil futures are at $76.16.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5028 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5400, and 5500 : support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are up 85 points.

PAY ATTENTION: A MAJOR RISK EVENT IS AHEAD – NVIDIA EARNINGS

February 14, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Nvidia Earnings Ahead

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• NVDA is the best performing large stock as NVDA is at the center of the AI revolution.
• The chart shows a breakout on January 8, 2024.
• The chart shows the very steep trendline since the breakout.
• The chart shows the buying frenzy in NVDA stock.
• The chart shows that since the breakout, NVDA stock has moved up 45.2% in a very short time.
• NVDA is in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.  The chart shows the power of buy zones.  The chart shows the average buy price for NVDA is $125.51.  NVDA is trading at $731.52 as of this writing in the premarket. This represents a profit of 483%.
• The move up in the stock market in 2024 is the result of two events.
  • AI frenzy led by NVDA stock
  • Momo gurus’ narrative of six rate cuts in 2024, starting in March.  The Arora Report repeatedly cautioned you against believing in the momo gurus’ narrative of interest rate cuts.  Now it is clear that momo gurus have been wrong on their interest rate cut projections.
• The Arora Report call on AI has been very positive.  Our call originally was that a fortune was to be made over seven years.  That call was made over a year ago.  So far, that call has been spot on.
• When one stock, such as NVDA, becomes responsible for a large part of the move of the entire stock market and for the extreme positive sentiment, it is important to pay attention to the earnings of the stock.
• NVDA reports earnings on February 21.  The consensus for NVDA earnings is $4.56.  The consensus for revenue is $20.32B.
• Less informed investors do not understand that stocks do not move based on published consensus earnings and revenue estimates.  Stocks move based on whisper numbers.  Whisper numbers are the numbers that analysts share privately, only with their best clients.  The whisper numbers for NVDA are at $5 for earnings and $22B for revenue.  
• Sentiment in NVDA is at extreme positive. Here is the most often asked question, “I don’t own NVDA.  Should I buy it now?” Typically, investors answer the question themselves. They cannot stand that they do not own NVDA, so they jump in with both feet to buy it now.  This is the same pattern that the same investors showed when TSLA was trading at a much higher price.
• NVDA earnings will determine the near term course of the stock market. 
• This morning there is aggressive buying in junk stocks and penny stocks.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 8.52M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 2.6M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Positive sentiment from aggressive buying in penny stocks and junk tech stocks is shifting to bitcoin (BTC.USD), moving it higher.  Bitcoin futures have just crossed $52,000.

Bitcoin miners are seeing aggressive buying.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2003, silver futures are at $22.22, and oil futures are at $78.30.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4998  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5020, 5210, and 5400 : support levels are 4918, 4852, and 4826.

DJIA futures are up 107 points.

INFLATION HOTTER THAN EXPECTED BUT MOMO GURUS HAVE A NEW NARRATIVE TO BUY STOCKS

February 13, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Hotter Inflation

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows a slight pullback on inflation data.
• The chart shows volume continues to be low, indicating lack of conviction.
• The volume today will be a tell.  If the stock market pulls back on heavy volume on bad inflation data, that will be an indication that the bulls are losing control.  On the other hand, if the stock market has only a shallow pullback or goes up on lower volume, that will be an indication that bulls continue to be in control.
• CPI was worse than expected.  Here are the details:
  • Headline CPI came at 0.3% month-over-month vs. 0.2% consensus.
  • Core CPI came at 0.4% month-over-month vs. 0.3% consensus.
• In yesterday’s Morning Capsule, we shared with you:

Momo gurus are already being proactive to prevent a selloff if the data shows that inflation is not coming down.  The new mantra of momo gurus is that stocks will go up even if inflation does not come down. Keep in mind that momo gurus’ real job is to run up the stock market under the disguise of analysis.

• Momo gurus are extremely clever.  Realizing that their new narrative was not that good, now they have come up with a more persuasive narrative to persuade their followers to buy stocks.  The new narrative is that this rise in inflation is a one-off.
• The CPI data today shows that Powell’s fear of Burns’ blunder is justified.  Arthur Burns was the most intelligent Fed Chairman.  He lowered rates when inflation came down but was forced to raise rates again when inflation picked up again.  This is known as Burns’ blunder.
• New earnings are having an impact on the stock market.
  • Earnings from artificial intelligence darlings ANET and CDNS are worse than expected.  This is causing a pullback in AI stocks.
  • Earnings from a momo crowd favorite stock SHOP are less than expected.
  • On the flip side, earnings from Warren Buffett’s favorite KO are better than expected.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Gold

Gold is coming under pressure on higher hotter CPI.  In the long term, gold is an inflation hedge, so why is it falling on hotter inflation? The reason is that in the very short term, gold is sensitive to interest rates.  

Understanding the behavior of not only gold but also other assets in response to macro data can give you a big edge.  The best and easiest way to gain this knowledge is from in-depth podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club.

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.  If speculative junk stocks get hit, negative sentiment will likely carry to bitcoin. 

Also be careful because whales tend to book profits by off loading bitcoin to mom and pop after a run up to round numbers.  

Bitcoin miners are being sold after the release of CPI data.  

For those interested in generating high risk adjusted returns from bitcoin, it is important to understand the behavior of whales.  The easiest way to understand whales’ behavior is to listen to the three part series titled “Whales’ Secrets You Need To Know: Capturing Bitcoin Profits.”  Many of you have been asking to gain access to this high value podcast series without joining Arora Ambassador Club.  Due to your requests, this podcast series is now available without joining the Club. Please write to ambassador@thearorareport.com if you are interested in access.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2015, silver futures are at $22.43, and oil futures are at $77.53.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4977 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5020, 5210, and 5400 : support levels are 4918, 4852, and 4826.

DJIA futures are down 373 points.

AN OPPORTUNITY IN SMALL CAPS OR A DANGER SIGN, ALL IMPORTANT CPI AHEAD

February 12, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Small Caps

Please click here for a chart of small cap Russell 2000 ETF (IWM).

Note the following:

• The chart shows the 2021 high in small caps.
• The chart shows the high in small caps in 2023.
• The chart shows small caps are still well below the 2021 high.
• Small caps staged a big rally in 2023, but small caps have not rocketed to new highs like the S&P 500.  This may be an opportunity for investors.  Here is what investors should keep in mind:
  • IWM could be a catch up trade.
  • On the other hand, small caps should have performed better than they have.  The difference could be explained due to the lack of high flying AI stocks in IWM, or the difference could be a warning.
  • Small caps are interest rate sensitive and should do well when the Fed cuts rates.
  • Small caps are economically sensitive.  As such, small caps should do well if there is no landing.
  • IWM includes many banks.  If there is no banking crisis, IWM should do well.
  • If the overall stock market maintains its gains, small caps provide an opportunity to investors.
  • IWM is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.
• Fed speak is ahead.  The Fed’s Michelle Bowman, Tom Barkin, and Neel Kashkari will be speaking today.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released Tuesday at 8:30am ET.  The stock market is assuming that inflation will continue to go down.  If CPI shows that inflation is continuing to come down, S&P 500 will rally.  On the other hand, if CPI is stronger than expected, there is a lot of air in the stock market and as such may lead to a rapid pullback.
  • Momo gurus are already being proactive to prevent a selloff if the data shows that inflation is not coming down.  The new mantra of momo gurus is that stocks will go up even if inflation does not come down. Keep in mind that momo gurus’ real job is to run up the stock market under the disguise of analysis.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) rallied to $48,795, where it met resistance.  It is pulling back as of this writing on slight disappointment that whales did not push bitcoin to $50,000 over the weekend.  Those who understand whales’ secrets know that whales are very smart, and they preserve the element of surprise, not always doing exactly what is expected.

For those who are serious about profiting from bitcoin, it is imperative to learn the 22 secrets of bitcoin whales.  Bitcoin whales and promoters do not want you to know these secrets.  The best way to learn these secrets is from the three-part series titled “Whales’ Secrets You Need To Know: Capturing Bitcoin Profits.”

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2033, silver futures are at $22.84, and oil futures are at $76.15.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5042  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5400, and 5500 : support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are down 48 points.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.