By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report. 

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

VERY LARGE $5 TRILLION QUADRUPLE WITCHING, MICROSOFT BREAKS OUT, WHALES LIQUIDATE $500M OF BITCOIN

March 15, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Very Large Quadruple Witching

Please click here for a chart of Microsoft stock (MSFT).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of MSFT stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• Microsoft is the second most important stock to the stock market after Nvidia (NVDA).
• The chart shows MSFT stock has broken out.
• MSFT stock is breaking out at a time when NVDA stock is pulling back.
• The chart shows the breakout was on heavier volume.  This indicates conviction in traditional technical analysis.
• In The Arora Report analysis, the breakout is suspect for three reasons:
  • There does not appear to be any significant fundamental development that would cause the breakout.
  • Money is moving out of NVDA and into MSFT, but this may be temporary.
  • There appears to be a gamma squeeze related to quadruple witching.  Gamma squeeze is an important market mechanic.  Understanding gamma squeeze can give investors an edge.  The easiest way to understand gamma squeeze is to listen to the podcast in Arora Ambassador Club titled “MARKET MECHANICS: IMPACT OF DEALERS’ GAMMA POSITION CHANGE ON THE STOCK MARKET.”
• Today is quadruple witching.  In quadruple witching, stock index futures, futures options, stock options, and single stock futures expire.  Quadruple witching often leads to volatility.
• This is a very large quadruple witching with about $5T of notional value of contracts expiring. 
• A vast majority of the contracts expiring are call options.  Call options are bullish bets.
• Historically, when such a large amount of call options expire, the market tends to pull back the week after.  However, the markets always have crosscurrents.  Next week is the FOMC meeting.  The momo crowd tends to buy aggressively on hopium prior to the Fed announcing the results from the FOMC meeting.  Here is the key question “Will the downward drag from quadruple witching be overcome by momo crowd hopium buying?”
• In a notable development, the stock of Adobe (ADBE), an AI darling, is falling on weak guidance.  The guidance is weak because of increasing AI competition.  This development shows the wisdom of what we started sharing with you in 2022 – a fortune is to be made in AI, but it will not be a straight line.  We also shared with you that at times it will be treacherous as many companies will be disrupted by AI.  Adobe is an example where AI from OpenAI is hurting AI products from Adobe.  It is extremely important that investors become knowledgeable about AI.  The easiest and the best way to become knowledgeable is to listen to the podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club.  
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey results will be announced at 10am ET.  This may be market moving.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Japan

We have been sharing with you that the policies of Bank of Japan (BoJ) impact stock markets across the globe, including the U.S. stock market.  The largest union group in Japan just negotiated higher wages than expected.  The developing narrative is that Bank of Japan may use the union deal to abandon its negative interest rate policy.  The Bank of Japan meeting takes place next week.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Yesterday, bitcoin (BTC.USD) bitcoin touched a new high of $73,798 on retail buying.  Yesterday, PPI data showed hotter inflation.  Even though the hype machine tries to convince mom and pop that bitcoin is an inflation hedge, the reality is that it is not.  Bitcoin whales know that bitcoin is not an inflation hedge, so they took advantage of the strength to liquidate about $500M of bitcoin, causing bitcoin to drop.  Bitcoin is trading around $68,000 as of this writing.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2165, silver futures are at $25.40, and oil futures are at $81.25.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5216  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5265, 5400, and 5500: support levels are 5210, 5020, and 4918.

DJIA futures are down 25 points.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

HOTTER PRODUCER INFLATION AND DECLINING RETAIL SALES – MOMO CROWD IN LA LA LAND, OIL DEFICIT PREDICTION

March 14, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Hotter PPI

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that the stock market is staying above the trendline.
• As long as the stock market stays above the trendline, the momo crowd is going to continue to buy stocks.
• The data just released shows that the momo crowd is in AI la la land and paying no attention to the data.  You may recall that The Arora Report was the first one to call that AI would be big and a fortune was to be made in AI.
• The Arora Report has been heavily focused on AI, and as a result, Arora portfolios have done extremely well.  Having said that, prudent investors need to understand that when it is all said and done, AI has to prosper in the real world and not in a make believe artificial world.  Right now, the momo crowd is in AI la la land. 
• Producer Price Index (PPI) shows that inflation is running hotter at the producer level than expected.  Here are the details:
  • Headline PPI came at 0.6% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Core PPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus.
• PPI feeds directly into PCE, which is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. The data released today shows that the Fed needs to be very careful before cutting rates.
• As The Arora Report had correctly predicted, consumer spending is beginning to weaken.  The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.  For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to retail sales.  Here is the latest retail sales data.
  • Headline retail sales came at 0.6% vs. 0.7% consensus.
  • Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.3% vs. 0.5% consensus.
• Initial jobless claims came at 209K vs. 218K consensus. Initial jobless claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.  In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.  Please click here to see how this is achieved.  One of the reasons behind The Arora Report’s unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model.  Most models on Wall Street are static.  They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.  The latest initial jobless claims data indicates that labor conditions continue to be tight.  The Arora Report analysis is that labor conditions are tight on the low end but weakness is developing at the high end, especially in IT and finance.
• The protection band may need to be adjusted please see the section below titled “Protection Band And What To Do Now.”
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has concluded that oil will face a supply deficit throughout 2024.  Previously a surplus was expected.  

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates and bonds are range bound .

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2172, silver futures are at $25.23, and oil futures are at $80.47.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5242 as of this writing. Note, the data is being switched to June futures from March.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5256, 5400, and 5500 : support levels are 5210, 5020, and 4918.

DJIA futures are up 128 points.

NVIDIA AND GAMMA SQUEEZE OVERPOWER HOTTER INFLATION DATA

March 13, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

AI Frenzy

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

• QQQ is above the trendline shown on the chart.
• The chart shows that QQQ ran up in spite of hotter inflation data.  Yesterday, gamma squeeze and AI frenzy completely overpowered inflation data that was negative for the stock market.
• Prudent investors know the market cannot ignore inflation forever.  While the stock market and the economy are not the same thing, they can not be completely divorced from one another.
• As long as QQQ stays above the trendline shown on the chart, the rapidly increasing YOLO (you only live once) behavior in the stock market will continue.  In YOLO behavior, investors give up any notion of risk.
• The chart shows that if QQQ starts pulling back, the major support zone is far off.
• Oracle (ORCL) earnings indicated there is a strong demand for Nvidia (NVDA) chips.
• NVDA stock ran up on Oracle earnings, which pulled up other AI stocks and led the market higher.
• Quadruple witching is this Friday.  Quadruple witching is to the upside.
• The incessant call buying by the momo crowd is leading to a gamma squeeze, putting upward pressure on the stock market.  Gamma squeeze is an important market mechanic.  Understanding gamma squeeze can give investors an edge.  The easiest way to understand gamma squeeze is to listen to the podcast in Arora Ambassador Club titled “MARKET MECHANICS: IMPACT OF DEALERS’ GAMMA POSITION CHANGE ON THE STOCK MARKET.”
• NVDA has now totally replaced Tesla (TSLA) as the momo crowd’s favorite stock.  The momo crowd is selling TSLA and buying NVDA.
• The next major trigger for the stock market will be the Nvidia GTC event that starts on March 18.
• The momo crowd is caught up in the AI frenzy to such a large extent that the momo crowd has decided inflation does not matter anymore.
• Of note is that as the stock market runs up, smart money is trimming positions.  This is common smart money behavior to trim into the strength and buy into the weakness.  In contrast, the momo crowd buys when the stock market runs up and sells when the stock market weakens and they cannot withstand their losses.   
• Important economic data will be released tomorrow and may be market moving.
  • Producer Price Index (PPI)
  • Retail Sales
  • Initial Jobless Claims
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG), NVDA, and TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a draw of 5.521M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 0.400M barrels.  This data is very bullish for oil. 

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2169, silver futures are at $24.58, and oil futures are at $79.22.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5174 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400 : support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852

DJIA futures are up 38 points.

INFLATION HOTTER THAN EXPECTED – MOMO BUYS THE BAD NEWS, JP MORGAN CEO SAYS RECESSION NOT ‘OFF THE TABLE’

March 12, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Hotter Inflation 

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that the stock market is hovering above the trendline.
• The chart shows when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was last reported, the stock market fell as CPI was hotter than expected.
• The difference between when CPI was reported last time as shown on the chart and the CPI release this time is that stock market euphoria has significantly expanded.  
• The chart shows that the stock market is rising after the CPI report today.
• CPI came hotter than expected.  Here are the details:
  • Headline CPI came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus and 0.2% whisper number.
  • Core CPI came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus and 0.2% whisper number.
• On a micro level, the stock market quickly dipped after the release of the hotter than expected CPI, but then the momo crowd stepped in to aggressively buy the dip.
• If the stock market was in a rational phase, it would have seen a big drop today on the hotter than expected CPI.  However, the stock market is in a euphoric phase.  In a euphoric phase, bad news is good news, and good news is great news.  A characteristic of the euphoric phase is that all news is bought, irrespective of what it is.  
• Momo gurus have a new highly flawed narrative to persuade their followers to buy stocks.  The narrative is that year-over-year inflation came at 3.2% vs. 3.1% consensus.
• As we have shared with you several times along the way, looking solely at year-over-year is like driving while looking only in the rearview mirror.  Investors should look at month-over-month for the last three months – this is like looking through the windshield.  Investors should also look at year-over-year, but that is like looking through the rearview mirror.  When you read about momo gurus’ narrative, keep front and center that momo gurus’ job is to run up the stock market under the disguise of analysis.
• Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan (JPM), is the most respected banker in the world.  Moreover, he has access to a large amount of data as JPM is the largest bank in the U.S.  Dimon is saying that a recession is not “off the table.”  According to Dimon, the world is expecting a 70% – 80% chance of a soft landing.  Dimon said,  “The chance of a soft landing in the next year or two is half that. The worst case would be stagflation.”
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is  stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2166, silver futures are at $24.38, and oil futures are at $77.44.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5137 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are, 5210, 5256, and 5400 : support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are up 48 points.

NVIDIA TRACES A BEARISH PATTERN – ARORA SIGNAL TO HEDGE RIGHT AT THE TOP, CENTRAL BANKS BUY GOLD

March 11, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Negative Nvidia Pattern

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of NVDA is being used to illustrate the point.
• The chart shows that NVDA stock has traced an outside day.  An outside day is a reversal pattern in traditional technical analysis.
• The chart shows that The Arora Report gave a signal to partially hedge the NVDA position when NVDA was trading at $952.74, right near the very top.  Since the signal to hedge NVDA stock, NVDA has lost about $250B worth of value.  The Arora signal to hedge NVDA has now proven prescient.
• The chart shows that NVDA is long from $125.51 when NVDA stock fell in the Arora buy zone shown on the left side of the chart.
• The chart shows that the reversal pattern in NVDA stock was on heavy volume.  This is negative.
• Nvidia is important for the following reasons.
  • Nvidia is the center of the artificial intelligence revolution.
  • Nvidia has been the best performing large cap tech stock.
  • About one third of S&P 500 performance is due to Nvidia.
  • Nvidia has become the favorite of the momo crowd, replacing Tesla (TSLA).
  • Nvidia usually has the most option volume on the call side, indicating the YOLO (you only live once) mentality that has seeped into the stock market.
• The move in NVDA stock is actively impacting the entire semiconductor sector.  As we have written before, semiconductors are the leading sector.  The Arora Report members had an advanced notice that semiconductors may fall from the signal given in ZYX Allocation to take partial profits in semiconductor ETF SMH just prior to the drop.  That Arora signal has now proven spot on.
• The next major event ahead is CPI data that will be released tomorrow morning at 8:30am ET.  The consensus is 0.3% for both the headline and the core.  However, whisper numbers are lower as Wall Street believes that inflation has dramatically slowed down.
  • CPI data will be a major test of the extreme positive sentiment that has prevailed on Wall Street.
  • As we have previously written, extreme positive sentiment is a contrary signal, but it is not a precise timing signal.
• Expect momo gurus to come up with new narratives to buy the dip in NVDA and other semiconductor stocks.  Prudent investors who pay attention to not only rewards but also risks may consider waiting for Arora buy zones.
• Quadruple witching is ahead on Friday and often leads to volatility.  In quadruple witching, stock index futures, futures options, stock options, and single stock futures expire.
• March 9 was the 15th anniversary of the backup the truck Arora buy signal.  Hindsight shows that the backup the truck Arora buy signal coincided with the exact low of S&P 500 at 666 prior to the start of the epic bull market.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Japan

The Japanese stock market experienced a major sell off after making new highs.  Of course, members of The Arora Report had advanced notice.  Last week, a signal was given to take partial profits on Japan ETF EWJ in ZYX Allocation prior to the drop in the Japanese stock market.  The signal has now proven spot on.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Gold

Central banks are buying gold.  Central banks of China, India, and Turkey bought 30 metric tons of gold in January.  

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) has moved above $72,000.  Two pieces of news are helping.

• One is the London Stock Exchange will allow applications for bitcoin and ethereum ETNs. British regulators say that bitcoin is not suitable for retail investors.  For this reason, they will allow the ETNs only for professionals.
• The second piece of news is that MicroStrategy (MSTR) is buying an additional 12,000 bitcoin for $821.7M cash.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2183, silver futures are at $24.60, and oil futures are at $77.69.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5175 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5400, and 5500: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852

DJIA futures are down 135 points.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.