WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: OPPORTUNITIES IN THE BANK WRECKAGE, CONSEQUENCES OF AN EXPANDING FED BALANCE SHEET

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

 

MONEY RUSHING INTO TECH STOCKS – DEUTSCHE BANK DAMPENS THE SENTIMENT – FED BALANCE SHEET EXPANDS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Rush Into Tech Stocks

Please click here for a chart of  Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

  • Money has been rushing into tech stocks for the following reasons:
    • There is a buying frenzy over artificial intelligence.  It is true that fortunes will be made in artificial intelligence over the next seven years.  However, many investors are going to end up losing their shirts.  Investors need to develop deeper knowledge of how to invest in artificial intelligence and be patient as well as systematic with investments in artificial intelligence.  Chasing prices is a recipe for losses.  To develop deeper knowledge, listen to the podcasts on artificial intelligence in the Arora Ambassador Club.
    • Interest rates are rapidly falling.  This is positive for tech stocks.
    • Gurus who were issuing calls to sell tech stocks near the recent lows are now switching to give calls to buy tech stocks near the highs.
  • Prudent investors should take a look at the chart.  The chart shows that QQQ moved right up to the top band of the resistance zone and is now backing off.  Technically, this is not a good place to buy tech stocks.  You want to buy either on a pull back or on a decisive breakout above the resistance zone.
  • RSI on the chart shows that QQQ is overbought.  Again, this is emphasizing that this is not a good place to buy tech stocks.
  • The credit swaps of big German bank Deutsche Bank (DB) are spiking.  Credit default swaps are a type of insurance against default for bondholders. It appears that the root cause for the concern is the wipe out of $17B of bonds by the Swiss government in the shotgun wedding of UBS (UBS) and Credit Suisse (CS).  Regular readers of The Arora Report had an advanced warning.  We wrote on March 20 in the Morning Capsule:
  • If regulators know of something really bad that is not publicly known, typically in such a buyout the stock is wiped out and bonds are converted to stock.  Here, the stock has been given some value, but $17B of bonds have been wiped out.  This is not how it normally works.  Here is the key question: Why did Swiss regulators force the complete wipeout of these so-called tier 1 bonds, also known as contingent convertible bonds or CoCos?

    • CoCos were a tool used after the 2008 financial crisis to transfer risk from taxpayers to bond holders.

    • CoCos have been a popular investment product believed to be a safe investment.

    • Who is holding these bonds and will that lead to a contagion?

    • More than $254B of such bonds are outstanding.  Who holds these bonds and how will the holders of these bonds react to a complete wipeout? It is believed that these bonds are owned by banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and individual investors.

  • Deutsche Bank stock is down about 8% in the premarket as of this writing.  This is dampening the sentiment and causing a broad selloff in stock futures in the premarket.
  • The momo crowd is aggressively buying the dip.
  • The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet grew by $94B over the last week.
  • Two-thirds of the systematic quantitive tightening by the Fed has now been erased by bank borrowing from the Fed in a matter of two weeks.
  • Just released durable goods orders are weak.
    • Durable goods came at -1.0% vs. 1.6% consensus.
    • Durable goods ex-transportation came at 0.0% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Treasury yields are rapidly falling.
    • The two-year Treasury yield has fallen to 3.63% as of this writing.  Compare this to over 5% on March 8, 2023.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 3.31% as of this writing.  Compare this to over 4% on March 2, 2023.
      • It is of special concern that the 10-year yield has fallen below the support at 3.40%.
  • The action in bonds is very concerning as it is predicting a recession.
  • Looking forward, the difference between the predicted Fed funds rate on January 24, 2024, and what the market is discounting is 124 basis points.  In plain English, the market is predicting a 1.24% rate cut by the Fed. 
  • We shared with you in yesterday’s Afternoon Capsule that Yellen was testifying after having moved stocks twice.  Yellen said that the government will take strong action to protect bank deposits.
  • As an actionable item, the best way to handle market conditions is to follow the protection band.  Please scroll down to see details.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

Gold futures have crossed above the psychological resistance level of $2,000.  

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil fell this morning on recession fears.  However, as of this writing, the momo crowd is 🔒 the dip in oil.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

The whales are managing to levitate bitcoin.  Mom and pop are rushing to buy bitcoin on expectations that the whales will take advantage of the low liquidity on Friday night and run bitcoin up to $30,000.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  Remember, today is a Friday.  Short squeezes tend to occur on Fridays.  If a short squeeze starts, the stock market can move up rapidly.  On the other hand, banking jitters may develop before the weekend.  If such jitters expand, a major selloff in the stock market can take place.  It all comes down to market mechanics.  It is important not only for short term traders but also for long term investors to understand market mechanics.  There are several podcasts on market mechanics in the Arora Ambassador Club.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2003, silver futures are at $23.56, and oil futures are at $68.23.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 3952  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4000, 4200, and 4318: support levels are 3950, 3860, and 3770.

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DJIA futures are down 273 points.

Protection Bands And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding 🔒 in cash or treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of 🔒, and short term hedges of 🔒. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

 

YELLEN GIVETH AND TAKETH AWAY

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

FDIC Insurance

Please click here for a chart of  Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

  • For prudent investors, right now, regional banks are the most important group. For details, please see prior Capsules.
  • The chart shows that on March 6 we warned you about regional banks.
  • The chart shows that on March 21 regional banks ran up on Yellen’s comments. It was not only regional banks, the entire market ran up on Yellen’s comments.  From the Morning Capsule on March 21, we wrote:

In response to the text of Yellen’s speech, the momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks and aggressively selling gold as of this writing.  Yellen is saying that the U.S. will forcefully take steps to prevent a broader crisis.  Yellen says that the U.S. will protect smaller banks if needed.

  • The stock market understood Yellen to be saying that FDIC insurance would cover unlimited deposits.
  • Yesterday, in a response to a question from Senator Bill Hagerty regarding FDIC coverage above $250K, Secretary Yellen said, “This is not something we have looked at, it’s not something we’re considering.”
  • The chart shows the impact of Yellen’s statement on regional banks.  Regional banks gave up much of their gains.  Yellen’s statement is reverberating towards the stock market this morning.
  • The momo crowd is oblivious and buying stocks, especially tech stocks.
  • The chart shows the support zone for regional banks.  A break above or below the support zone will likely be an early tell for the stock market.
  • The dollar is on the longest losing streak in two and a half years but is range bound today. 
  • As an actionable item, the best way to handle crosscurrents is to follow the protection band.  Please scroll down to see the current protection band.

Jobless Claims

Weekly Jobless Claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our ZYX Asset Allocation Model with input in 10 categories.  Weekly Jobless Claims came at 191K vs. 204K consensus.  This data indicates that the overall job picture, in spite of tech layoffs, is staying strong.

Europe

Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points.

Bank of Norway raised interest rates by 25 basis points.

Swiss National Bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points.

Layoffs

Accenture (ACN) is laying off 19,000 employees.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

SEC has sent a Wells Notice to crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN).  A Wells Notice is used as a last step before a formal enforcement action.  It appears that any enforcement action will be related to Coinbase’s Earn, Prime, Wallet, and spot market products.

Whales continue to be successful in levitating bitcoin.

A crypto promoter who paid millions to have lunch with Warren Buffett has been charged by the SEC for selling unregistered securities and market manipulation.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1976, silver futures are at $23.08, and oil futures are at $70.60.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 3989  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4000, 4200, and 4318: support levels are 3950, 3860, and 3770.

DJIA futures are up 61 points.

 

WALL STREET POSITIONED FOR DOVISH 25 BPS RAISE OR HAWKISH PAUSE FROM THE FED

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Wall Street Positioning

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that S&P 500 is in no man’s land in between the two support/resistance zones.
  • The chart shows the close on the day when the banking crisis started.
  • The chart shows that the stock market is now higher than the close when the banking crisis started.  Does it make sense?  It certainly does to the momo crowd. The momo crowd trusts Janet Yellen as their savior.  See yesterday’s Capsules about the stock market rally triggered by Yellen’s comments.
  • One of the reasons that the momo crowd thinking is so seductive to investors is that there isn’t any need to know the history or analyze the stock market deeply.  In contrast, prudent investors remember that on June 27, 2017, Yellen said that she did not believe that there would be another financial crisis as long as she lived due to the banking reform that she orchestrated.  
  • Wall Street is positioned for one of the following two outcomes when the Fed announces its decision later today.
    • A dovish hike of 25 basis points is being given an 80% probability by Wall Street.  On the surface, the combination of dovish and raising interest rates seems to be an oxymoron.  A dovish hike means that the Fed raises the rate but is very dovish in its comments.
    • A hawkish pause is being given a 15% probability by Wall Street.  A hawkish pause means that the Fed does not raise the interest rate but is hawkish in its commentary.
  • Irrespective of what the Fed does and the momo crowd’s trust in Yellen, here is an incontrovertible fact that prudent investors should be mindful of.
    • Due to the banking crisis, lending standards at regional banks are tightening. Over 50% of the loans to various important sectors of the economy are made by regional banks with assets under $250B.  Tightening lending standards means fewer loans and harsher terms.  This is going to impact earnings.  We have been sharing with you that Wall Street’s earnings estimates are too high.  Should lower earnings mean a lower stock market? The answer is yes unless the Fed aggressively cuts interest rates.  The momo crowd is counting on the Fed aggressively cutting interest rates.  
  • Yesterday’s rally was exaggerated by zero-day options.  Any price action today will also be exaggerated by zero-day options.  All investors, including long term investors, will gain an edge by understanding how zero-day options impact the markets.  To gain an edge, listen to the podcast titled “Market Mechanics: Understand Zero-Day Options To Gain An Edge.”
  • The Fed decision will be announced at 2pm ET followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm ET.
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U.K.

Inflation in the U.K unexpectedly jumped to 10.4% vs. 9.9% consensus. The Bank of England will be announcing its rate decision tomorrow.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to levitate.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1941, silver futures are at $22.47, and oil futures are at $69.48.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4035  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4200, 4318, and 4400: support levels are 4000, 3950, and 3860.

DJIA futures are up 20 points.

 

YELLEN COMES TO THE STOCK MARKET’S RESCUE, WILL THE THIRD TIME BE THE CHARM FOR GOLD?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Gold Bugs Excited

Please click here for a chart of gold ETF (GLD)

Note the following:

  • The chart is a monthly chart to give you a long term picture.
  • Just like the momo crowd is a dominant force these days in the stock market, there was a time when gold bugs were the dominant force in the gold market. From 2012 – 2016, gold bugs slowly lost their sway.  By 2016, gold bugs were facing an existential threat. For the reason, all you have to do is take a close look at the chart.
  • Since 2016, gold bugs have been slowly relegated to the fringe. Even though they are at the fringe, gold bugs are excited again. All you have to do is take a look at the chart to see why they are excited.
  • The horizontal line on the chart shows the high in gold in 2011.
  • Our long-time members would recall that when gold was in the $600 range, The Arora Report repeatedly gave signals to back up the truck and buy gold.  Long time members would also recall that in 2011, when gold futures reached $1,904, The Arora Report gave a signal to sell half of the gold and put a stop on the remaining at $1,757.  Within a couple of hours of the signal, gold futures went to $1,911 and then started falling, ultimately briefly going below $1,000. The Arora signal to sell gold was given on the exact day that gold topped.
  • The chart shows that in recent years, gold has made two attempts to break out above the horizontal line shown on the chart.
  • The chart shows that two recent attempts to breakout failed.
  • The chart shows that gold reached the horizontal line again but is backing off as of this writing.
  • Will the third time be the charm?  Interestingly, many gurus who did not want anything to do with gold when gold was at $1,000 are all of a sudden jumping on board, recommending that everyone buys gold.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, the main factor driving the price of gold will be the Fed.  If the Fed starts cutting interest rates rapidly and inflation stays high, there is a high probability of gold breaking through the resistance zone of $2,016 – $2,063, moving towards $2,400. As a reference, gold is pulling back this morning to $1,966 on the text of Yellen’s speech to be delivered later today.  On the other hand, if the Fed continues to raise rates and does not cut rates, the price of gold will quickly retreat to about $1,800. 
  • Gold ETF GLD is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.
  • In response to the text of Yellen’s speech, the momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks and aggressively selling gold as of this writing.  Yellen is saying that the U.S. will forcefully take steps to prevent a broader crisis.  Yellen says that the U.S. will protect smaller banks if needed.
  • There are also reports that the government is looking at ways to guarantee all bank deposits, not just up to $250K.
  • The momo gurus’ narrative is that if Yellen is going to be the savior with more government intervention, stocks will go to the moon and there is no need for the safety of gold.
  • FOMC is meeting today and tomorrow.  The policy decision will be announced Wednesday at 2pm ET followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm ET.

Artificial Intelligence

Nvidia (NVDA) is set to unveil new AI technologies.

Layoffs

Disney (DIS) will be laying off 7K employees at its ESPN unit.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to levitate as the talk of bitcoin going to $1M spreads.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1966, silver futures are at $22.60, and oil futures are at $68.52.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4019  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4200, 4318, and 4400: support levels are 3950, 3860, and 3770.

DJIA futures are up 302 points.

 

PAY ATTENTION TO $17 BILLION BOND WIPE OUT IN UBS TAKE OVER OF CREDIT SUISSE

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Potential Contagion

Please click here for a chart of the multinational investment bank UBS Group stock (UBS).

Note the following:

  • Pay attention because there is a risk of contagion from the way the UBS buyout of Credit Suisse (CS) deal is structured.
  • The chart shows a close in UBS stock of $18.20 on Friday, an early morning drop to $15.50, and a rise to $17.58 as of this writing. In Europe, the stock traded as low as $14.36.
  • The price action is in response to the shotgun marriage orchestrated by the Swiss National Bank between UBS and Credit Suisse over the weekend.
    • UBS will pay $3.3B in its stock for Credit Suisse stock.
  • The momo crowd is oblivious, but prudent investors should pay attention to these facts:
    • The buyout is a takeunder.  CS stock closed at $2.01 on Friday.  It is trading at $0.86 as of this writing.
    • In 2007, CS stock was trading over $70.
    • There is considerably more value in CS stock than the buyout price.
  • The takeunder raises the question: What do regulators know that we do not know?
  • If regulators know of something really bad that is not publicly known, typically in such a buyout the stock is wiped out and bonds are converted to stock.  Here, the stock has been given some value, but $17B of bonds have been wiped out.  This is not how it normally works.  Here is the key question: Why did Swiss regulators force the complete wipeout of these so-called tier 1 bonds, also known as contingent convertible bonds or CoCos?
    • CoCos were a tool used after the 2008 financial crisis to transfer risk from taxpayers to bondholders.
    • CoCos have been a popular investment product believed to be a safe investment.
    • Who is holding these bonds and will that lead to a contagion?
    • More than $254B of such bonds are outstanding.  Who holds these bonds and how will the holders of these bonds react to a complete wipeout? It is believed that these bonds are owned by banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and individual investors.  
  • As far as UBS is concerned, here are the key points:
    • The crown jewel of the combined operation will be a $5T global wealth management business.
    • UBS is getting these assets dirt cheap.  That is good for UBS in the long term.
    • In the near term, there is significant execution risk.
    • There was very limited due diligence, and thus, there may be additional risks that are not priced in.
    • The deal will become accretive only by 2027, assuming there are no additional risks.
    • Prudent investors should keep an eye on how UBS stock behaves.  There will be a buy signal on UBS stock in ZYX Buy for a very long term position but at a much lower price and with strict risk controls.
  • FOMC starts meeting Tuesday.

Wheat

Ukraine’s Black Sea grain export agreement has been renewed.  Wheat is falling in response.  Members of ZYX Short will recall a highly profitable trade when the signal was given to short sell wheat ETF WEAT around $12 in the frenzy of momo crowd hysteria to buy wheat.  Ultimately wheat fell to the $7 range.  There may be a new signal on wheat depending upon new data.

China

Chinese President Xi is starting his three-day trip to Russia.  Prudent investors will be carefully watching for developments that may impact the markets.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Whales have successfully pumped bitcoin over $28,000.

Over the weekend, there was again talk of bitcoin reaching $1M.  Retail investors are aggressively buying bitcoin as the narrative of bitcoin running to the stars takes hold.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1978, silver futures are at $22.41, and oil futures are at $66.35.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 3959  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4000, 4200, and 4318: support levels are 3860, 3770, and 3630.

DJIA futures are up 118 points.

 

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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