WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: IS THE STOCK MARKET GETTING READY FOR A RUN UP?

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

STOCK MARKET DODGES A BULLET – MOMO GURUS PROVEN WRONG

April 26, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that the stock market is consolidating between the resistance zone and support zone.
  • RSI on the chart shows that the stock market can go either way from here.
  • This morning, the stock market dodged a big bullet.  The bullet was the fear that PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, would come higher than the consensus.  The data came inline with the consensus.  Here are the details:
    • Headline PCE came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
    • Core PCE came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • The PCE data just released has proven that The Arora Report call has been spot on.  The Arora Report call has been that inflation is coming from services and is sticky.  Digging below the headline, the just released data shows that inflation is coming from services and is sticky.
  • Momo gurus have been forecasting that inflation would have gone down to 2% by now.  If you annualize 0.3%, it translates to 3.6%.  The momo gurus are wrong again.  Even though momo gurus are almost always wrong, prudent investors should not ignore them.  The reason is that the media promotes momo gurus because they boost ratings.  Momo gurus have legions of followers who do not do any analysis and just follow the momo gurus like sheep.
  • The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.  Therefore, prudent investors pay attention to personal income and personal spending.  Consumers continue to excessively spend.  This is helping the economy and the stock market in the short term, but it is not sustainable in the long term.  Here are the details of the data:
    • Personal spending came at 0.8% vs. 0.6% consensus.
    • Personal income came at 0.5% vs. 0.5% consensus.
  • In the stock market, there is a sigh of relief that earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) were better than the consensus and whisper numbers.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.  There is a change in the protection band. 

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), GOOG, MSFT, and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial)  stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  On the flip side, the market is experiencing a short squeeze in the early trade.  That is the reason the indicator is positive.  Remember, today is a Friday.  On Fridays, short squeezes have a higher propensity to accelerate.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2359, silver futures are at $27.50, and oil futures are at $84.22.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5119 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are up 11 points.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

 

META FALLS 15% ON GREAT EARNINGS, TESLA RISES 12% ON UGLY EARNINGS – HERE IS THE REAL REASON

April 25, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

The Power Of Market Mechanics

Please click here for a chart of Meta stock (META).

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of META stock is being used to illustrate the point.
  • The chart shows a gap down in META on earnings.
  • The chart shows an island reversal.  An island reversal is a negative pattern.
  • RSI on the chart shows that META is now oversold.
  • Long time members of The Arora Report are long META from $49.92.  This represents a gain of 920% for The Arora Report members to the point shown on the chart when the Arora signal was given to hedge or take partial profits.
  • The chart shows that the Arora signal to hedge or take partial profits was given right close to the top before the big drop in the stock.
  • Meta reported excellent earnings, better than the consensus and whisper numbers.  Why is META stock down?  The popular narrative is that the stock is down due to AI spending and Mark Zuckerberg’s comment that AI spending will not produce immediate profits.  With the exception of momo gurus who do not do objective analysis, non-momo analysts know that AI spending is not going to produce immediate profits.
  • In yesterday’s Morning Capsule, we highlighted that Tesla (TSLA) reported terrible numbers, but the stock jumped up on heavy AI spending on the prospect of future returns from AI spending.  Please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule for details.  For your convenience, click here for the chart of Tesla that was included in yesterday’s Morning Capsule.  For the sake of full transparency, this chart has not been changed.
  • Here is an important learning moment for investors.  Why did TSLA stock jump 12% on bad numbers and heavy AI spending?  Why did META stock fall 15% on excellent numbers and heavy AI spending?  The real answer is Wall Street’s positioning.
    • Going into TSLA earnings, Wall Street’s positioning was very negative. 
    • Going into META earnings, Wall Street’s positioning was extremely positive.   
    • Positioning often causes contrary moves.  If you can fully grasp this one point of Wall Street mechanics, it will make a huge difference in the amount of money you extract out of the markets.  Due to their high value, Wall Street professionals keep the secrets of Wall Street mechanics close to their chest.  Fortunately for members of The Arora Report, you can easily learn Wall Street secrets from a number of podcasts on market mechanics in Arora Ambassador Club.  Of particular interest here is a podcast titled “Market Mechanics: Positioning.”
  • Here are three notable earnings impacting the sentiment in the stock market:
    • IBM (IBM) stock had been running up on AI excitement.  IBM reported earnings less than the whisper numbers.  IBM stock has fallen about 10%. As a full disclosure, ZYX Short took a short position in IBM and had a nice profit in a matter of minutes.  Partial profits have already been taken.
    • Construction machinery maker Caterpillar (CAT) reported earnings worse than whisper numbers.
    • Pharmaceutical company Merck (MRK) reported earnings better than whisper numbers.
  • Today, there will be an auction of $44B of seven year Treasuries.  We will be carefully watching the results.
  • In contrast to the prior two year auction (see yesterday’s Morning Capsule), yesterday’s record auction of $70B of five year Treasuries was poor but not a canary in the coal mine.  Here are the details:
    • High yield: 4.659% (When-Issued: 4.655%)
    • Bid-to-cover: 2.39
    • Indirect bid: 65.7%
    • Direct bid: 19.2%
  • Initial jobless claims came at 207K vs. 217K consensus.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, the just released Q1 GDP indicates stagflation may be coming.  Here are the details:
    • GDP-Adv came at 1.6% vs. 2.4% consensus.
    • Price index came at 3.1% vs. 3.0% consensus.
    • Core price index came at 3.7% vs. 3.4% consensus.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.
See also  HAWKISH DOT PLOT SIGNALS ONLY ONE RATE CUT BUT AI BUYING MOMENTUM OVER POWERS

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), META, Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and TSLA,

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2337, silver futures are at $27.35, and oil futures are at $82.62.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5042 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852

DJIA futures are down 475 points.

 

MUSK LIFTS SENTIMENT IN ENTIRE STOCK MARKET BY SAYING A REGULAR CAR IS LIKE “RIDING A HORSE”

April 24, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Musk Lifts Stock Market Sentiment

Please click here for a chart of Tesla stock (TSLA).

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of TSLA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
  • The chart shows that TSLA stock fell to the upper band of the support zone prior to earnings.
  • The chart shows a big move up after TSLA earnings.
  • RSI on the chart shows that prior to earnings, TSLA stock was very oversold, and thus it was easy for it to bounce.
  • TSLA reported earnings significantly worse than both the consensus and whisper numbers.  Here are the details:
    • Q1 earnings of $0.45 vs. $0.51 consensus
    • Q1 revenue of $21.3B vs. $22.15B consensus
    • GAAP gross margin of 17.4%, down 199 bps year-over-year
    • Operating expenses up 37% year-over-year
    • Deliveries declined 8.5% year-over-year.
    • Guided 2024 vehicle volume “notably lower” than 2023
  • Despite the numbers from TSLA earnings, Elon Musk has lifted sentiment in the entire stock market by saying that buying a regular car is like “riding a horse and using a flip phone.”
  • Here are the other key points from Musk that are lifting the sentiment in the entire stock market:
    • Tesla is accelerating development of several low priced cars.
    • Tesla plans to own and deploy a fleet of 1M robotaxis.
    • Tesla has increased its AI training capacity from 15,000 Nvidia H100 GPU equivalents at the beginning of the year to 40,000 now.  Musk is projecting a compute capacity of 85,000 H100 equivalents by the end of the year.
    • Musk made the most convincing case yet that Tesla is not a car company but an AI company.
    • Musk’s statement is especially boosting AI stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Applied Materials (AMAT), and ARM (ARM).
  • There are two earnings of note this morning.
    • Boeing (BA) earnings are being well received by the stock market.  BA stock is up.
    • Vertiv (VRT), a maker of cooling equipment for AI servers, is rocketing after better than expected earnings.
  • The new data on durable orders is strong.  Here are the details:
    • Durable orders came at 2.6% vs. 1.8% consensus.
    • Durable goods ex-transport came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • The U.S. Treasury will conduct a record auction of $70B of five year Treasuries.  We will be carefully watching the results and will let you know if a canary in the coal mine develops.    
    • It is important for investors to carefully watch longer duration Treasury auctions due to the second blunder that the Fed has committed.  The second blunder is Powell’s press conference in December 2023.  The easiest way to understand the blunder is to listen to the podcast in Arora Ambassador Club.
    • Of note is that yesterday, the Treasury conducted a record auction of $69B of two year Treasuries.  The auction was excellent with yield coming at 4.898%, lower than expected.  The reason is that investors are shifting money from money market funds to two year Treasuries.  
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.
See also  WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: PRUDENT INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION TO CHANGE IN REACTIONS IN THE STOCK MARKET

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), NVDA, and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a draw of 3.23M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 1.8M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2337, silver futures are at $27.37, and oil futures are at $83.08.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5111 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are down 57 points.

 

HEDGES ARE PROFITABLE, SEMICONDUCTORS STABILIZING AFTER 17% DROP

April 23, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Hedges Are Profitable

There have been several hedges put on to protect large profits that The Arora Report members currently have.  Hedges are now profitable.  It is time to book partial profits on some hedges.  There will be a separate post.  Also, there is a change to the protection band.  Please see the protection band section below.

Semiconductors Stabilizing After 17% Drop 

Please click here for a chart of semiconductor ETF (SMH).

Note the following:

  • Historically, semiconductors are the leading sector.  Often semiconductors move first and then the rest of the market follows.
  • This time, there has been an additional factor – semiconductors have been at the center of the AI revolution.
  • The chart shows semiconductors have had a massive run, producing large profits for members of The Arora Report.  The ZYX Allocation Core Model Portfolio has the largest allocation to semiconductors, up to 16% of the portfolio.
  • The chart shows when the Arora signal was given to take partial profits close to the top.
  • The chart shows semiconductors dropped 17% from the top.
  • The chart shows semiconductors are attempting to stabilize at the microsupport zone.
  • The chart shows RSI is oversold.  Oversold RSI often, but not always, leads to a bounce.
  • Among the earnings, there are two notable earnings.
    • General Motors (GM) reported earnings significantly better than the whisper numbers.  This indicates that in spite of high interest rates, consumers feel secure enough to buy new cars.
    • Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) is a leading provider of semiconductor design software.  CDNS stock has run up due to the AI frenzy.  The presumption has been that as chips become more complex, CDNS will benefit.  CDNS guidance is below expectations.  This indicates that the momo crowd euphoria about AI is overdone.  CDNS is one of 18 stocks on the Arora Artificial Intelligence List.  Stay tuned for a potential buy signal at the appropriate time.  Such a signal will be in ZYX Buy.
  • In the short term, the course of the stock market will depend on earnings from Tesla (TSLA), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL).
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.  Bitcoin bulls are disappointed that bitcoin is not running up immediately after the halving.  Of course, those who listened to the podcast from Arora Ambassador Club titled “BITCOIN HALVING – SIX SECRETS WHALES DO NOT WANT YOU TO KNOW” knew in advance that bitcoin was not likely to run right after the halving.

See also  WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: A GREAT STRATEGY FOR INVESTING IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, RATES HIGHER FOR LONGER

For more on profiting from bitcoin and bitcoin whales’ 22 secrets, listen to the podcast series titled “WHALES’ SECRETS YOU NEED TO KNOW: CAPTURING BITCOIN PROFITS” in Arora Ambassador Club.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2324, silver futures are at $27.10, and oil futures are at $81.30.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5064 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852

DJIA futures are up 123 points.

 

THE NVIDIA CHART SHOWS THE IMPORTANCE OF EARNINGS FROM TESLA, META, MICROSOFT, AND ALPHABET

April 22, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Importance Of Earnings

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

  • Nvidia is the most important stock in this market as Nvidia is the center of the AI revolution.
  • The chart shows Arora signals to take partial profits or hedge NVDA stock right near the top.
  • The trendline on the chart shows that the upward trend in NVDA is now broken.
  • The chart shows that along the way, there were several signals for newer members to participate in the rise in NVDA stock.
  • The chart shows a big drop in NVDA stock on Friday.
  • The chart shows NVDA has fallen about 21% from the peak in a short time.
  • The chart shows that NVDA is still significantly above the breakout point.
  • The chart shows the drop was on somewhat heavy volume but not extremely heavy volume. This is a negative.
  • RSI on the chart shows that NVDA is now oversold.  When a stock is oversold, often it tends to bounce.
  • The chart shows that members of The Arora Report bought NVDA stock at an average price of $125.51, just before the run up to $974.
  • In real life, it does not get any more perfect than The Arora Report calls on NVDA – buying at the low right before a big run up, holding through the run up, using trade around positions along the way to add to profits, and taking profits or hedging right at the top.
  • The plan is to realize profits on NVDA hedges and add to NVDA at the appropriate time.
  • A look at the NVDA chart shows the importance for the entire stock market of earnings this week from Tesla (TSLA), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL).  Earnings from these stocks, with the exception of TSLA, are expected to be extremely strong.  Whisper numbers are higher than consensus numbers.
    • If earnings from these stocks are better than whisper numbers, expect a strong rally in the stock market from here.
    • If earnings from these stocks are worse than whisper numbers, expect the current move down to continue.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), GOOG, META, and NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in MSFT.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is being bought as the fourth halving has now occurred.  There is disappointment among bulls because buying so far is not as strong as they had expected.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2357, silver futures are at $27.46, and oil futures are at $81.36.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5033 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are up 222 points.

 

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Picture of Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Picture of Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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