WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: OPTIMISM OVER JOB GROWTH SLOWING, APPLE BUYBACK AND TESLA GAME CHANGER

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

WAGE GROWTH SLOWS – STOCK MARKET CELEBRATES, FIVE REAL REASONS APPLE IS RUNNING UP

May 03, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Reduce Hedges And Deploy Cash

Hedges are profitable.  It is time to take more partial profits.  There will be a separate post.

It is time to deploy slightly more cash.  Please see the protection band section below.

Wage Growth Slows

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that the stock market may attempt to break out of consolidation and run towards the resistance zone.  RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is set to run up.
  • There is aggressive buying in stocks, bonds, gold, silver, and bitcoin on the jobs report.  Investors are celebrating slower wage growth and lower than expected job creation. Here are the details:
    • Non-farm payrolls came at 175K vs. 250K consensus.
    • Private non-farm payrolls came at 167K vs. 175K consensus.
    • Average hourly earnings came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.  On an annualized basis, this wage growth is 2.4%.  This is good news on the inflation front.
  • With Powell itching to cut rates, this report is going to give Powell the ammunition he needs.
  • The stock market always has crosscurrents.  One of the negatives from this jobs report is that with slowing jobs growth and slowing wage growth, the consumer may stop spending excessively.  The U.S. economy has stayed out of recession because of excessive consumer spending.  If the consumer stops spending excessively, earnings growth will be lower than the current Wall Street consensus.  In turn, it will hit the stock market negatively.
  • Apple (AAPL) earnings were roughly inline with the consensus but worse than whisper numbers.  Here are the two most important pieces of data:
    • Q2 iPhone revenue was $45.96B vs. $51.3B last year.
    • China sales are down 8%.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, Apple is running up and creating positive sentiment in the entire stock market for the following reasons:
    • Apple announced the largest buyback in corporate history. It is $110B.
    • In his comments, Tim Cook’s tone was more optimistic than we have heard thus far.
    • Cook is optimistic on China in spite of the data showing reasons to not be optimistic.
    • In a departure from Apple’s standard practice, Apple gave guidance for the June quarter.  Apple projects low single digit growth.  Consensus for sales is $82.89B.  It appears Apple departed from its standard practice because Cook sees the need for him to do everything he can to run up AAPL stock.
    • An AI announcement is likely on June 10 at WWDC.
    • For those wanting next level information on Apple, please write us at ambassador@thearorareport.com.
  • Amgen (AMGN), a component of DJIA, is running up on the company teasing about good data from its weight loss drug from Phase 2 and plans to move to Phase 3.  The move up in AMGN is helping DJIA run up.  Investors are selling stocks of competitors Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO).
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Buy Zones And Buy Now Ratings 

Consider continuing to hold good strategic positions.

Consider lightly buying, if underinvested, when stocks and ETFs fall in the buy zones. Complete Model Portfolio updates with new zones are coming.  

Nibbling

Consider not nibbling at this time. 

Nibbling refers to buying very small quantities, often in existing long-term positions with the intention of exiting these additions in the short term. It is similar to trade around positions but without specific signals.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and AAPL.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial)  stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) has run up above $60,000 on weaker jobs report.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2321, silver futures are at $27.02, and oil futures are at $79.30.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5148  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are up 472 points.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

 

POWELL RALLY VANISHES, QUALCOMM HEIGHTENS APPLE CONCERN, MOTHER OF ALL REPORTS AHEAD

May 02, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Key Events Ahead

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows the steep rally that started on Powell’s press conference.
  • In yesterday’s Morning Capsule we wrote:

If political Powell shows up, expect a rip roaring rally.

  • Three groups of investors were buying.
    • Investors driven by macro bought on the belief that Powell gave an all clear signal for buying stocks.
    • Investors who follow traditional technical analysis aggressively bought because a technical buy signal triggered.
    • The momo crowd was buying because dovish Powell showed up.
  • The chart shows that at the peak of the rally when buying was very aggressive, The Arora Report took a contrary view and wrote in the Afternoon Capsule:

In The Arora Report analysis, there may be a re-think of the stock market rally as Powell was not able to support his dovishness with data or compelling argument.

  • The chart shows that The Arora Report call has proven prescient as all of the stock market rally was given back.
  • The Arora Report members benefited from this prescient call because they were not buying at the high just to find their new buys quickly turn to losses.
  • Two key events are ahead:
    • Apple (AAPL) earnings
    • Jobs report, also known as the mother of all reports
  • The momo crowd’s pattern is to buy ahead of key events.  The reason is that the momo crowd buys on hopium and does not take risk into account. Today is no different.  The momo crowd is aggressively buying ahead of Apple earnings and the mother of all reports.   In contrast, smart money knows that key events present risk.  To reduce risk, smart money tends to trim ahead of key events.
  • Apple will report earnings after the market close.  Here are the key points:
    • Analysts expect about a 5% drop in Apple revenues.
    • If analysts are right, this will be the fifth of the last six quarters with a drop in Apple revenues.
    • We have been sharing with you the problems Apple is facing in China.
    • Qualcomm (QCOM) owns patents on key technologies that power today’s smartphones, including iPhones. QCOM is in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.  Members of The Arora Report have a gain of 270% on QCOM.  Apple is a key Qualcomm customer.  QCOM data shows that it generated great revenues in China.  The implication here is that other companies such as Huawei are taking significant market share from Apple as Chinese switch away from iPhones.  
    • AAPL is in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.  AAPL is long from $4.68.  The Arora Report members have a gain of 3,573%.
    • Apple earnings are very important.  Risks to Apple are also very important.  Institutions are selling AAPL stock.  It is important to become knowledgeable about Apple.  Consider reading prior Morning Capsules and a recent detailed post on Apple in ZYX Buy.  For those who want next-level knowledge, the recent two-part podcast series titled “MAXIMIZING RISK ADJUSTED RETURNS FROM AI IPHONE OPPORTUNITY” has won wide acclaim.  For access to this series, write to ambassador@thearorareport.com.
  • The jobs report will be released at 8:30am ET tomorrow.
  • Initial jobless claims came at 208K vs. 213K consensus.  This indicates that the employment picture remains strong.
  • Q1 Productivity-Prel came at 0.3% vs. 0.8% consensus.   This indicates that AI has not become as pervasive in the workplace as some prior data indicated.
  • Q1 unit labor costs-Prel came at 4.7% vs. 2.5% consensus.  This indicates that taming inflation is a challenge.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.
See also  SOFT TREASURY AUCTIONS ARE HITTING THE STOCK MARKET, MT. GOX RELATED DROP IN BITCOIN

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in AAPL, Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

As we are ready to publish this post, all of a sudden, significant selling is coming in gold.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

As we are ready to publish this post, all of a sudden, significant selling is coming in oil.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying on dovish Powell.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2303, silver futures are at $26.32, and oil futures are at $79.07.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5080 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852

DJIA futures are up 175 points.

 

SUPER MICRO FOLLY, STOCK MARKET DIRECTION DEPENDS ON WHICH POWELL SHOWS UP – OBJECTIVE OR POLITICAL

May 01, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Making A Fortune In Artificial Intelligence

Please click here for a chart of Super Micro Computer stock (SMCI).

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of SMCI stock is being used to illustrate the point.
  • Super Micro has been the most favorite artificial intelligence stock of the momo crowd.  The chart shows the big drop in the stock on earnings released after the market closed.
  • The chart shows a 40.5% drop since the high in March.
  • RSI shown on the chart foretold what was to come.
  • The momo crowd, including momo gurus, that ran up the stock did not really understand the server business.
  • SMCI presents an important learning moment for prudent investors.  These are four important points here:
    • What you do not buy is as important as what you buy.  
    • A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.  
    • The momo crowd’s history is that they make money because they run up stocks with their own buying.  Subsequently, the momo crowd loses money when smart money sells into the strength.  Often, the momo crowd loses more money than they make, resulting in a net loss.   
    • Follow smart money for investments.  Selectively follow the momo crowd for very short term trades when there is a Signal or Signal Limited.  
  • As a member of The Arora Report, you already knew in advance what was to come.  On March 4, right near the top of SMCI stock, we wrote in the Morning Capsule:
  • SMCI has become a favorite of the momo crowd.  The momo crowd incorrectly thinks SMCI has the same potential as Nvidia (NVDA).  Investors need to keep in mind the following:

    • SMCI moves a lot more than NVDA.  SMCI is so volatile because of the small float.

    • SMCI is an assembler of servers for artificial intelligence.  It uses components from NVDA, Micron (MU), and Marvell (MRVL).

    • NVDA has a large moat to protect it that includes IP for its GPUs.  SMCI has no moat and the barrier to entry for competitors is low.

    • SMCI sales are to hyperscalers like Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Google (GOOG).  The reason SMCI sales are booming is that they have availability of NVDA chips.  As chips become more available to competitors, SMCI will not be able to sustain its sales growth rate.

    • The momo crowd is buying SMCI due to lack of knowledge.  However, there are many investors who understand and have the knowledge of SMCI’s business.  Many such investors are short selling SMCI.  For the time being, short sellers are being overwhelmed by the YOLO crowd.

    • Taking all of the above into consideration with the quantitative analysis screen of the ZYX Change Method, in an optimistic case, the fair value of SMCI stock is $442 – $486.

  • You may recall that The Arora Report was the first one to identify that artificial intelligence was real in 2022.  At that time, momo gurus were selling AI stocks, providing an opportunity for members of The Arora Report to buy AI stocks near the lows resulting in big gains.  For example, members of The Arora Report bought Nvidia stock (NVDA) at an average of $125.51, just before the run up started.  As a reference, NVDA stock is trading at $850.58 as of this writing in the premarket.
  • A fortune is to be made in AI between now and 2030.  SMCI shows that at times it will be treacherous.  You need expert guidance, which we provide in the Real Time Feeds.  Equally important is building your knowledge of investments in AI.  The easiest way is to listen to the podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club.
  • FOMC will release its decision at 2pm ET today.  FOMC is expected to keep interest rates unchanged.  The key event is Powell’s conference.  The data shows that professional traders are expecting higher volatility during Powell’s conference than at any other point over the last year. 
  • In The Arora Report analysis, the near term direction of the stock market will come down to if objective Powell shows up or if political Powell shows up.  
    • If objective Powell shows up, expect the stock market to go down.   The reason is that the stock market is still levitating on hopium and not paying attention to the data.  
    • If political Powell shows up, expect a rip roaring rally. 
  • We previously shared with you that prudent investors should pay attention to the Treasury refunding plan.
    • The Treasury plans to borrow $243B in the April to June quarter vs. $202B estimate.
    • The Treasury has just released the composition of the borrowing.
    • In The Arora Report analysis, the composition is more important than the increased amount of borrowing.  Last time, the Treasury manipulated the borrowing to make stock and bond markets run higher.  We will be carefully analyzing the just released new data.
  • ADP is the largest private payroll processor in the country.  It uses its data to give a glimpse of the jobs picture in advance of the official jobs report that will be released on Friday at 8:30am ET.  ADP employment change came at 192K vs. 175K consensus.  This indicates that the jobs picture is staying very strong.  In The Arora Report analysis, the strength is at the low end while the job picture remains weak in IT and finance.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.
See also  STOCK MARKET CELEBRATES COOLER CPI, OIL GLUT BY THE END OF THE DECADE

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), NVDA, and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) has fallen below $60,000 on momo crowd selling.  Recent momo crowd bitcoin buyers who fell prey to whales’ propaganda of buying on bitcoin halving and bought bitcoin above $70,000 are panicking and selling.  Of course, if you listened to the podcast on bitcoin halving, you knew in advance that this was a high probability outcome.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker .

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2307, silver futures are at $26.62, and oil futures are at $80.57.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5053 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are down 25 points.

 

FOMC MEETING, SAMSUNG OVERTAKES APPLE, AI DEMAND INDICATION AHEAD FROM AMD, AMAZON AND SUPER MICRO

April 30, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Samsung Overtakes Apple

Please click here for a chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that bonds have fallen this year.
  • The chart shows that bonds are consolidating in the mini support zone.
  • Lower bonds mean higher yields.  Higher yields mean lower PE ratios.  Lower PE ratios mean lower stock prices, unless earnings rise.
  • So far, due to a strong economy because of the Fed’s second blunder and reckless spending by the government, earnings are better than expected.  45% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings.  About 77% are above consensus.  This is helping the stock market to levitate.  We have described the Fed’s second blunder in a previous Morning Capsule.  The Fed’s second blunder has a major impact on your investments.  For next level information on the Fed’s second blunder, listen to the podcast titled “IMPACT OF THE FED’S SECOND BLUNDER ON YOUR WEALTH.”
  • Just released data shows more bad news on inflation.  Employment Cost Index came at 1.2% vs. 1.0% consensus.
  • The FOMC meeting starts today.  FOMC will announce its decision at 2pm ET tomorrow followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30am ET.
  • The AI phone from Samsung (SSNLF) is proving popular.  Apple (AAPL) has lagged behind in AI.  Institutions continue to sell AAPL stock.   According to a just released report, Samsung has now taken over Apple as the largest provider of smart phones.
  • There are three notable earnings that investors should pay attention to:
    • Samsung has quadrupled its net profit due to demand from artificial intelligence.  Its high bandwidth memory is flying off the shelves.  Revenues for the quarter rose 13%.
    • Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly (LLY) reported earnings better than the consensus and whisper numbers.  Lilly is also raising its FY24 EPS projection to $13.50 – $14.00 from $12.20 – $12.70. Lilly’s performance is due to strong sales of weight loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound.  LLY stock is up about 6% as of this writing in the premarket.  LLY stock is in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.  Members of The Arora Report now have a gain of 145% on LLY stock.
    • NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), a leader in automotive semiconductors, reported earnings better than the consensus and whisper numbers.  NXPI is in  the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.  NXPI is trading up over 4%  as of this writing in the premarket. Members of The Arora Report now have a gain of 179% on NXPI stock.
  • There will be another indication of demand for artificial intelligence after the market close when three important companies for AI report earnings – AMD (AMD), Amazon (AMZN), and Super Micro Computer (SMCI).
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Europe

The Eurozone economy has avoided a recession and is resilient.  Q1 GDP came at 0.3% quarter-over-quarter vs. 0.1% consensus.

There is selling in European stocks because of the strong GDP data weighing on rate cut expectations.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in AMZN.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in AAPL and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

See also  FAR RIGHT SURGES IN EUROPE, ADDING TO GEOPOLITICAL RISK

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is trading around $61,000.  $60,000 is a key psychological support level.  Whales will likely try to hold bitcoin above $60,000.  However, the momo crowd that bought bitcoin at $70,000 on hopes of bitcoin going to $100,000 after bitcoin halving is likely to panic and sell.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2316, silver futures are at $26.76, and oil futures are at $83.16.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5126 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are down 166 points.

 

A GAME CHANGER FOR TESLA IN CHINA ALSO HELPING APPLE, JAPAN INTERVENES, TREASURY REFUNDING

April 29, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Game Changer

Please click here for a chart of Tesla stock (TSLA) and Apple stock (AAPL).

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The charts of TSLA and AAPL are being used to illustrate the point.
  • The chart shows that TSLA stock is jumping about $20 on the announcement from China.
  • The chart shows that this big jump follows the stock jump after earnings in which Tesla reported terrible numbers.
  • In the Morning Capsule from April 24, we shared with you three points that were causing not only TSLA stock to jump on bad earnings but were also lifting sentiment across the entire stock market.
    • Tesla accelerating development of a cheaper model
    • Tesla’s plan to own and deploy a fleet of 1M robotaxis
    • Tesla increasing its AI capacity
    • For details, please see the referenced Morning Capsule.
  • Tesla stock is jumping today as Musk scored a coup in a surprise visit to China.  China has, in principle, approved Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD).
    • To meet Chinese regulations, Tesla is partnering with Chinese company Baidu (BIDU) for mapping and navigation.  BIDU has been on the Arora AI stock list.  The Tesla deal has triggered a buy signal.  There will be a separate post with details of the signal.  To learn about the trigger event screen of the ZYX Change Method, please click here.
  • Tesla’s deal in China is also lifting AAPL stock.  Tesla’s deal indicates a reduction in the China risk for Apple.  Also helping Apple is a broker upgrade.
  • On the negative side, the European commission has designated iPadOS as a gatekeeper under DMA.  This indicates that the regulatory pressure on Apple is ratcheting up, which is a negative.
  • The chart shows when the Arora signal was given to hedge AAPL stock.  The hedge is nicely profitable.  A signal has triggered to take partial profits on the hedge.  There will be a separate post.
  • The move up in TSLA and AAPL is lifting the sentiment across the entire stock market.
  • Apple will be reporting earnings on Thursday.  Apple earnings have the potential to move the entire stock market.  A separate post titled “Potential AI iPhone Ahead – Apple Earnings Also Ahead – Institutions Are Selling” was published in ZYX Buy this morning, providing you with more details and guidance.
  • Treasury refunding announcement is ahead.  The last Treasury refunding announcement caused big stock and bond market rallies as the Treasury designed it specifically to rally the stock and bond markets.  We will be carefully reviewing the Treasury announcement. There will be a post only if that announcement will likely have a major impact.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Japan

Overnight, Japan intervened in the forex markets to prop up the yen.  There was significant volatility causing about a six point range in yen trading.  For a currency, this is a big range.  This is the first Japanese intervention since 2022.

Japanese intervention is also creating positive sentiment.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in AAPL, Amazon (AMZN), and TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG) and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

There is disappointment that bitcoin (BTC.USD) was not run up by bitcoin whales taking advantage of the low liquidity over the weekend.

Those who fell prey to bitcoin halving pitches orchestrated by bitcoin whales and bought bitcoin over $70,000 are now sitting on losses.  Of course, members of The Arora Report who listened to the podcast titled “BITCOIN HALVING – SIX SECRETS WHALES DO NOT WANT YOU TO KNOW” knew in advance that this was the most likely income.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2344, silver futures are at $27.51, and oil futures are at $83.21.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5145 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are up 46 points.

 

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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