By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora
Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’
A GREAT STRATEGY FOR INVESTING IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, RATES HIGHER FOR LONGER
May 17, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Picks And Shovels Strategy
Please click here for a chart of Applied Materials stock (AMAT).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of AMAT stock is being used to illustrate the point.
- One of the best strategies to profit from artificial intelligence is the picks and shovels strategy. Picks and shovels is one of 50 strategies that members of The Arora Report benefit from. For those interested in learning more about the picks and shovels strategy, several podcasts are available in Arora Ambassador Club.
- Semiconductor equipment manufacturer Applied Materials belongs to the picks and shovels strategy.
- The chart shows that the stock pulled back after the company reported earnings.
- The chart shows the pullback also happened when the company reported earnings for the prior quarter. The reason for pullbacks after earnings in this case is that whisper numbers moved too high prior to the earnings, and the momo crowd aggressively bought prior to earnings. This pattern is extending to many important stocks.
- If there is a bigger pullback in AMAT, it will be a buying opportunity.
- AMAT earnings were good. Here are the details:
- Q2 earnings came at $2.09 vs. $1.99 consensus.
- Q2 revenues came at $6.65B vs. $6.54B consensus.
- AMAT projects Q3 EPS of $1.83 – $2.19 vs. $1.98 consensus
- AMAT project Q3 revenues of $6.25 – $7.05B vs. $6.59B consensus.
- AMAT is in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio. It is long from $16. Long time members of The Arora Report now have a gain of 1239%. Along the way, based on Buy Now ratings and higher buy zones, there have been plenty of opportunities for newer members to buy AMAT stock at great prices. For new members, see the Buy Now rating and buy zone in the Model Portfolio. There are plenty of opportunities in AMAT and other great stocks as well as ETFs in the Model Portfolios for new members. In addition, there is a continuing stream of new ideas and opportunities in existing positions for new members.
- Three Fed officials, Barkin, Williams, and Mester, say there is no rush to cut interest rates as it is taking longer to cool inflation.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band.
China
China is undertaking the most ambitious plan yet to reverse declining home prices. The People’s Bank of China will provide $41.5B to help Chinese state owned companies to buy unsold homes. This is generating optimism.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very, very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. Keep in mind that today is Friday, and short squeezes tend to occur on Fridays. Short squeezes run up the market. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2397, silver futures are at $30.39, and oil futures are at $79.29.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5324 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5400, 5500, and 5622: support levels are 5256, 5210, and 5020.
DJIA futures are up 19 points.
Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
WALMART ATTRACTS WEALTHIER CONSUMERS – STOCK MARKET TELL, RED HOT NEW HOUSING SLOWS
May 16, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
A Tell Ahead
Please click here for a chart of Walmart stock (WMT)
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of WMT stock is being used to illustrate the point.
- Walmart is the largest retailer in the U.S. For this reason Walmart earnings are very important to the stock market.
- The chart shows that WMT stock has broken out of the resistance zone on earnings.
- RSI on the chart shows that WMT stock is now over bought.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the follow up to the initial WMT breakout will be a tell for the entire stock market with the exception of tech stocks. If the breakout leads to a further rally, it will be a positive. If the breakout fails, it will be a negative.
- WMT earnings are above the consensus and whisper numbers. Here are the details:
- Q1 earnings came at $0.60 vs. $0.52 consensus.
- Q1 revenues came at $161.51B vs. $159.5B consensus.
- U.S. comp sales rose 3.8%.
- WMT projects Q2 EPS of $0.62 – $0.65 vs. $0.64 consensus.
- WMT projects FY25 EPS at the high or slightly above $2.23 – $2.37 vs. $2.36 consensus.
- In The Arora Report analysis, Walmart is beating estimates because it is attracting wealthier consumers who previously did not shop at Walmart. This is the result of consumers seeking value as a result of high inflation. Walmart is benefiting from inflation.
- WMT is in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio. It is long from $19.25. Long time members of The Arora Report now have a gain of 228%. Along the way, based on Buy Now ratings and higher buy zones, there have been plenty of opportunities for newer members to buy WMT stock at great prices. For new members, see the Buy Now rating and buy zone in the Model Portfolio. There are plenty of opportunities in WMT and other great stocks in the Model Portfolio for new members. In addition, there is a continuing stream of new ideas and opportunities in existing positions for new members.
- Initial jobless claims came at 222K vs. 218K consensus, but whisper numbers were running around 240K. In the early trade, stock market bulls are not liking this number. Upon release of this data, some selling came into the stock market. Stock market bulls’ reason that the Fed is more likely to cut rates earlier if jobless claims rise. As we have written before, this data is volatile. Investors should look at a four week moving average and not get carried away based on week to week fluctuations.
- The Fed’s Neel Kashkari said the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged a bit longer.
- More Fed speak is ahead from the Fed’s Barkin, Harker, Mester and Bostic.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band.
Housing
Housing starts came at 1.36M vs. 1.44M consensus. Building permits came at 1.44M vs. 1.48M consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, the data indicates that the red hot market for new houses is beginning to cool.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), ,Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very, very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is continuing its run along with speculative stocks after CPI data yesterday and is now trading above $66,000.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2386, silver futures are at $29.79, and oil futures are at $79.29.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5333 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5400, 5500, and 5622: support levels are 5256, 5210, and 5020.
DJIA futures are down 16 points.
INVESTORS ELATED ON CPI DATA, DR. COPPER AT A NEW HIGH ON SHORT SQUEEZE
May 15, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Cooler Inflation Data
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows that the stock market is breaking out above the resistance zone.
- The chart shows a highly unusual occurrence – RSI is at 100. This is the most extreme overbought level. The extreme overbought level indicates that either the stock market is ready for another strong up leg, or the breakout is going to fail.
- Sentiment is extremely positive. At extremes, sentiment is a contrary indicator. In plain English, extreme positive sentiment is a sell signal. However, it is important to remember that sentiment is not a precise timing indicator.
- In The Arora report analysis, based on the other macro and fundamental data, there is about a 40% probability that the breakout will fail even though technicals are very strong.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) came slightly cooler than expected. Here are the details:
- Headline CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.4% consensus.
- Core CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
- As most investors are elated over the CPI number, prudent investors need to remember that on an annualized basis, core CPI is still 3.6%. The Fed’s target is 2%. Further, prudent investors need to remember that goods inflation is coming down due to over production in China, but services inflation is still sticky.
- The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to retail sales. Here is the latest retail sales data.
- Headline retail sales came at 0.0% vs. 0.4% consensus.
- Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.
- Retail sales data shows that the consumer is finally pulling back. This will negatively impact earnings. In the long run, the single best determinant of the stock market is earnings. However, at least for today, elated investors are not thinking far ahead about earnings.
- It is said that copper has a Ph.D. in economics. That is why it is called Dr. Copper. When the economy is booming, demand for copper goes up. In recessions, demand for copper drops. Copper futures in New York just hit a new high. Copper is also heavily used in electric vehicles and solar panels. Heavy demand for electricity by artificial intelligence data centers will also increase copper demand.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the new high in copper is not indicative of the economy but is due to a vicious short squeeze. The trigger for the short squeeze is investors looking for a derivative play on artificial intelligence.
- One of the largest copper producers Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio. FCX operates in both North and South America, but its most important mines are in Indonesia. Indonesia ETF EIDO is in the ZYX Emerging Model Portfolio.
- A copper producer First Quantum Minerals (FQVLF) is in ZYX Buy in the portfolio that surrounds the core Model Portfolio. FQVLF is a Canadian company that is a buyout target. To date, 194 Arora portfolio companies have been bought out producing a fortune for members who invest in buyout targets.
- For those who like ETFs, metals and mining ETF XME as well as commodities ETF PDBC are in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very, very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
API crude inventories came at a draw of 3.104M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 1.350M barrels.
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is being aggressively bought on lower CPI. This again busts the myth propagated by the whales that bitcoin is an inflation hedge. The hard data shows that bitcoin is not an inflation hedge, but rather an instrument for speculation.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2377, silver futures are at $29.26, and oil futures are at $77.75.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5293 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5400 and 5500: support levels are 5256, 5210, and 5020.
DJIA futures are up 159 points.
NEW HOTTER INFLATION DATA – MOMO BUYS THE DIP, FED BLUNDER SHOWS UP IN ROARING MEME STOCKS
May 14, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Hotter Inflation Data
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows the stock market is in the resistance zone.
- As is their pattern, the momo crowd was buying ahead of the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) on hope strategy.
- The momo crowd’s hopes were dashed when PPI data came much hotter than expected. Here are the details:
- Headline PPI came at 0.5% vs. 0.3% consensus.
- Core PPI came at 0.5% vs. 0.2% consensus.
- The chart shows the stock market first dipped on bad inflation data, but as of this writing in the premarket, the momo crowd is aggressively buying the dip.
- Prudent investors, in The Arora Report analysis, would want to wait to see Consumer Price Index (CPI) data tomorrow before taking any action. CPI will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
- We have previously shared with you that the Fed’s second blunder has loosened financial conditions way beyond where they should be based on the economic data.
- The Fed’s blunder is now showing up in meme stocks roaring back. Earlier this morning, GameStop (GME) was up 163% in the premarket on top of 74% gain yesterday.
- The meme crowd ran up AMC Entertainment (AMC) 156% this morning, trading as high as $13.30 in the premarket. AMC took advantage of the meme crowd to raise about $250M of new capital by selling shares at $3.45. When the company is selling shares at $3.45, why would the meme crowd buy the same shares at $13.30? The answer is the meme crowd is not doing any analysis other than becoming a meme to cause a short squeeze.
- The last meme craze ended in tears for the meme crowd with big losses. You may recall that The Arora Report gave a number of signals on meme stocks. The vast majority of them were highly profitable. If the meme craze continues, we will return to the same playbook that was successful last time and start providing you with signals. It is important to remember that such signals, if given, will be for short term trades and not investments.
- In addition to GME and AMC, here are the stocks the meme crowd is targeting: PLUG, BB, KODK, LMND, NVAX, SPWR, TUP, NEGG, SAVE, HTZ, KOSS, RDDT, VFS, RIVN, and AI.
- Among earnings, the most notable are earnings from Dow Jones (DJIA) component Home Depot (HD). Here are the details:
- Home Depot showed its sixth consecutive quarter of negative sales growth.
- Same store sales decreased by 3%.
- Earnings were roughly inline with whisper numbers.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band.
Layoffs
Walmart (WMT) is laying off hundreds of corporate employees. Walmart is also calling remote workers back to the office.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** buying in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2353, silver futures are at $28.67, and oil futures are at $78.59.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5241 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5256, 5400, and 5500: support levels are 5210, 5020, and 4918
DJIA futures are up 12 points.
CHATGPT ON APPLE IPHONE, MAKE OR BREAK DATA FOR STOCK MARKET AHEAD
May 13, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Make Or Break Data Ahead
Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Note the following:
- The chart shows QQQ is in the resistance zone.
- The chart shows that the rally is on low volume, indicating a lack of conviction.
- The chart shows that RSI has jumped and is now overbought. RSI indicates that the stock market is now vulnerable to the downside if the macro data goes against the market.
- The chart shows Arora calls to raise hedges near the top and the Arora call to reduce hedges near the bottom. These calls have proven spot on. When hedges are used over a long period of time, they can add significant amounts to your returns and significantly lower your risks. If you do not hedge, you can simply adjust cash. Please see the “Protection Band And What To Do Now” section below.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are ahead –these pieces of data are make or break for the stock market. Here is the consensus:
- 0.3% for headline PPI
- 0.2% for core PPI
- 0.4% for headline CPI
- 0.3% for core CPI
- Wall Street is positioned for inflation data to cool and the stock market to break out of the resistance zone shown on the chart.
- Prudent investors need to be aware that if the data goes against Wall Street’s positioning, the stock market reaction to the downside can be severe due to positive positioning. Positioning is an important Wall Street that all investors should strive to deeply understand. The easiest way to understand positioning is to listen to the podcast titled “Market Mechanics: Positioning.”
- Apple (AAPL) is reportedly in talks with OpenAI to put ChatGPT on iPhones. This is creating positive sentiment in the market. On the surface, this is negative for Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL).
- As a proof positive of the speculative sentiment in the stock market rapidly increasing ahead of the key data, the meme crowd is back. They are running up video game retailer GameStop (GME). To some degree, this is reminiscent of the start of the last meme crowd craze which ended in tears for the meme crowd.
- Artificial intelligence stocks are getting a boost on reports that Arm (ARM) is developing new artificial intelligence chips
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in AAPL, Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in GOOG and Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying along with the rise in speculative sentiment.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2355, silver futures are at $28.55, and oil futures are at $78.72.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5262 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5400 and 5500 : support levels are 5256, 5210, and 5020.
DJIA futures are up 118 points.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.
Dr. Natasha Arora
Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.
