WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: PRUDENT INVESTORS BALANCING COOLER INFLATION DATA, AI FRENZY, AND NEGATIVE SENTIMENT FROM EUROPE

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

NEGATIVE SENTIMENT FROM FRANCE IMPACTING U.S. STOCKS – WILL AI COME TO THE RESCUE?

Jun 14, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

AI To The Rescue?

Please click here for a chart of France ETF (EWQ).

Note the following:

  • In the early trade, the sentiment in the U.S. stock market is being dampened by the drop in the French market.
  • On June 10, we alerted you in the Morning Capsule,

In France, President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament and called a snap election.  Marine Le Pen’s far right National Rally won 36.8% of the vote compared to Macron’s party winning 14.6% of the vote.

  • The chart shows the initial drop in the French market on the news of the defeat of Macron’s party. As we previously alerted you, on June 10 in the early trade the news not only from France but also from the rest of Europe dampened the sentiment in the U.S. stock market, but the AI frenzy quickly overpowered the negatives.
  • The chart shows another big drop in the French market today.  The reason is threefold:
    • Opinion polls are showing that Le Pen’s far right party and related parties will finish with as many as 270 seats in the 577 seat National Assembly.  If this prediction comes true, Le Pen would be winning triple the number of seats her party won in 2022.
    • Since Macron’s call for a snap election was a surprise, the expectation was that the far left parties would not have enough time to unite to fight the election and go against Macron.  The fact is that far left parties have managed to quickly unite and plan to take Macron head on.
    • Macron’s party is now pinned squarely between the far left and far right.
  • Thank you for all of your great questions about the French election.  Here is the answer to your questions. As a reference, Macron’s party has been pro-business and pro-reform.  In The Arora Report analysis, a win by the far right or far left will be an earthquake against pro-business policies, not only in France but throughout Europe.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, looking ahead, a big win by either the far right or the far left in Europe will be a big negative for the U.S. stock market.  
  • In the U.S. stock market, the AI frenzy has been overpowering everything else.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, there is a fair probability that for the very, very short term the AI frenzy has reached a peak.  In plain English this means that there is a fair probability of a shallow pullback.   
  • The market always has crosscurrents.  In The Arora Report analysis, there is a positive development for the market.  The Fed’s Mester is saying that it is inappropriate to keep rates at the current level until the 2% inflation target is reached.  Mester’s remarks are bringing in buying.  
  • University of Michigan sentiment survey data will be released at 10am ET.  It may be market moving.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Japan

Contrary to expectations, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) did not provide details on bond buying cuts.  To prevent the market from overreacting, BOJ Governor Ueda left the door open for a July rate hike.  The lack of detail is adding to negative sentiment in Europe and Asia.  It is not clear as of this writing if this sentiment will carry over to the U.S.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial)  stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2347, silver futures are at $29.27, and oil futures are at $79.04.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5414 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5500 and 5622: support levels are  5400, 5256, and 5210.

DJIA futures are down 272 points.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

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It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

EXTREMELY POSITIVE SENTIMENT ON LOWER PPI, HIGHER JOBLESS CLAIMS, MUSK CLAIM, AND BROADCOM SPLIT

Jun 13, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Lower PPI

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that the stock market took another leg up on Consumer Price Index (CPI) data yesterday.  Please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule for details.
  • The chart shows that after the Fed announcement, the stock market pulled back as the dot plot was more hawkish than expected.  Please see yesterday’s Afternoon Capsule for details.
  • The chart shows that the stock market first jumped this morning on release of Producer Price Index (PPI) and jobless claims data.
  • RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is very overbought.  Overbought markets tend to be susceptible to a pullback.
  • The chart shows that the volume was higher yesterday than other recent low volume days, but the volume was not high enough considering the strong rally.  This is a negative.
  • Inflation at the producer level came cooler than expected.  Here are the details:
    • Headline PPI came at -0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus.
    • Core PPI came at 0.0% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, a big part of the drop in PPI is because of the following reasons:
    • We have been sharing with you that producer prices in China have been dropping.  Since the U.S. imports a large amount of goods from China, China is exporting disflation to the U.S.
    • Oil prices have fallen due to concerns about a weak economy.  Oil contributes significantly to PPI.
  • Weekly initial claims came at 242K vs. 224K consensus. This indicates that the jobs picture is weakening.  Initial jobless claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.  In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.  Please click here to see how this is achieved.  One of the reasons behind The Arora Report’s unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model.  Most models on Wall Street are static.  They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.
  • The sentiment is extremely positive in addition to CPI, PPI, and jobless claims.  The following are adding to the positive sentiment.
    • Elon Musk is claiming that shareholders voted for his pay package.  Tesla (TSLA) stock is jumping about 7% as of this writing in the premarket.
    • Semiconductor company Broadcom (AVGO) reported AI revenues better than the consensus but inline with whisper numbers.  The company also declared a 10 for 1 split just like Nvidia (NVDA).  AVGO has jumped over 13% as of this writing in the premarket.
  • If it were not for the extremely positive sentiment, the stock market should be down based on the hawkish dot plot from the Fed.  In The Arora Report analysis, there are two factors that are leading to the stock market ignoring the Fed.
    • The AI frenzy is simply too powerful.
    • Momo gurus have declared that they know better than the Fed.  Momo gurus’ job is to run up the stock market, and they have legions of followers.
  • Sentiment is extremely positive.  Extremely positive sentiment is a contrary signal.  In plain English, when sentiment is extremely positive, it is a sell signal, not a buy signal.  As a reminder, sentiment is not a precise timing indicator.
    • The Arora Report rule is to buy aggressively when sentiment is extremely negative and be cautious when sentiment is extremely positive.  
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying on economic data.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2339, silver futures are at $29.47, and oil futures are at $78.20.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5443 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5500 and 5622: support levels are 5400, 5256, and 5210.

DJIA futures are down 88 points.

STOCK MARKET CELEBRATES COOLER CPI, OIL GLUT BY THE END OF THE DECADE

Jun 12, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Cooler CPI

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows the stock market taking another leg up on cooler Consumer Price Index (CPI).
  • The chart shows the volume has been low, indicating lack of conviction.  In theory, the volume today should be significantly higher.  The Arora Report will be carefully watching the volume.
  • RSI on the chart shows the market is overbought, making it susceptible to a pullback.
  • CPI data came cooler than expected. Here are the details:
    • Headline CPI came at 0.0% vs. 0.1% consensus.  This is the lowest since 2020.
    • Core CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, the probability of a rate cut in September is now 55%, and the probability of a rate cut in December is 90%.    
  • The Fed’s rate decision will be announced at 2pm ET, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm ET.
  • At The Arora Report, we will be carefully watching the dot plot.  The dot plot indicates interest rate projections of FOMC members.
  • In the early trade, the buying in AI stocks is especially aggressive.  
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
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China

Inflation in China is also falling both at the producer level and the consumer level.  Since the U.S. is a major importer of Chinese goods, lower producer level inflation in China also helps lower inflation in the U.S.  Here are the details:

  • China’s CPI came at 0.1% month-over-month vs. 0.0% consensus and 0.3% year-over-year vs. 0.4% consensus.
  • China’s PPI came at -1.4% year-over-year vs. -1.5% consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

According to the International Energy Agency, global reduction in fossil fuel consumption coupled with surging oil production capacity is creating a major oil surplus.  Production capacity is expected to be 8M barrels per day above demand by 2030.  This data indicates a glut in oil by the end of the decade.     

API crude inventories came at a draw of 2.428M barrels vs. consensus of a draw of 1.750M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is rallying on lower CPI.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2346, silver futures are at $29.94, and oil futures are at $78.94.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5430 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5500, and 5622: support levels are 5400, 5256, and 5210.

DJIA futures are up 343 points.

A RARE DATA DAY AHEAD — STOCK MARKET HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FLY OR FALL

Jun 11, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

CPI And FOMC Ahead

Please click here for a chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).

Note the following:

  • The direction of bonds tomorrow will likely determine the direction of the stock market.
  • The chart shows TLT is below the low band of the resistance zone.
  • The chart shows that going into important data, volume has stayed low, indicating lack of conviction.
  • Volume in S&P 500 has also stayed low, indicating lack of conviction ahead of the data.
  • If bonds approach the mini support zone, then stocks will fall.  If bonds return to the resistance zone, then stocks will fly.
  • Bonds will move on a rare data day tomorrow – both Consumer Price Index (CPI) and FOMC rate decision will be released.
  • CPI will be released at 8:30 am ET.  Here are the details:
    • The consensus for the headline CPI is 0.1%.
    • The consensus for the core CPI is 0.3%.
  • The Fed is meeting today and tomorrow.  The Fed will announce its rate decision tomorrow at 2pm ET, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm ET.
  • The current consensus is that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged.  The CPI data could influence the Fed’s decision as the data will be released during the FOMC meeting.
  • Here is what we will be paying close attention to at The Arora Report:
    • The language of the FOMC statement
    • Dot plot.  The dot plot contains projections from FOMC members and is released every three months.
    • Powell’s press conference
  • In yesterday’s Morning Capsule, we wrote:

The election results from Europe are dampening the sentiment across the globe.

  • In the first opinion poll since Macron called for a snap election, forecasts project the far-right National Rally will win the election but will not gain absolute majority.
  • French government bonds are tumbling, leading to a selloff across Europe.
  • In the early trade in the U.S., stocks are being sold due to dampening sentiment emanating from Europe.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

See also  PRUDENT INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION TO CANARY IN COAL MINE – OBLIVIOUS MOMO CROWD SUPPORTING THE MARKET

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling and trading around $67,000.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2335, silver futures are at $29.57, and oil futures are at $77.53.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5358  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5400, 5500, and 5622: support levels are 5256, 5210, and 5020.

DJIA futures are down 149 points.

FAR RIGHT SURGES IN EUROPE, ADDING TO GEOPOLITICAL RISK

Jun 10, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Added Geopolitical Risk

Please click here for a chart of France ETF (EWQ).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows French stocks made a lower high.
  • The chart shows French stocks are making a topping formation.  This is a negative.
  • Investors already face significant geopolitical risks emanating from Ukraine, Taiwan, Korea, and the Middle East.  Now there is an additional risk – far right parties may win a record number of seats in the European Parliament.
  • According to the exit polls, far right parties will win 150 of 720 seats.
  • Centrists are still likely to win the largest number of seats, but both the far left and far right are gaining seats.
  • Of note is that the biggest far right gains are coming from three important countries: France, Italy, and Germany.
    • In France, President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament and called a snap election.  Marine Le Pen’s far right National Rally won 36.8% of the vote compared to Macron’s party winning 14.6% of the vote.
    • In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats won only 14% of the vote.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, it is likely that voters who voted for the far right parties in the European election may end up voting for centrist parties in national elections.  
  • In The Arora Report analysis, investors should also note that the pro-environment Green parties suffered heavy losses in the election.  It appears that voters in Europe are tired of the heavy cost of ambitious climate policies.  This has a negative impact on electric vehicle stocks and renewable energy stocks.  
  • The election results from Europe are dampening the sentiment across the globe.  On the positive side, three developments are helping the stock market.
    • There was a significant pump over the weekend about AI stocks.  Retail investors tend to respond to the weekend pump.
    • Retail investors are excited about Nvidia (NVDA) trading post split at about $120.
    • Apple (AAPL) will unveil its AI strategy today at WWDC.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in AAPL and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVDA and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is trading below $70,000.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2322, silver futures are at $29.85, and oil futures are at $76.09.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5345 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5400, 5500, and 5622: support levels are 5256, 5210, and 5020.

To take a free 30-day trial to paid services to gain access to more opportunities, please click here.

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Picture of Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Picture of Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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