By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know now.

Leading Economic Index

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

  • The day started out with the momo crowd buying stocks.
  • The chart shows when the leading economic index was released. It came at -0.8% vs. -0.5% consensus.
    • This is an important leading indicator.
    • This indicator has now fallen four months in a row.
    • The economic indicator is forecasting further weakness ahead.
  • Interest rates fell and bonds rose on the weak leading economic index.
  • The chart shows there was initially selling after the release of the leading economic index.
  • The chart shows that as soon as the tiny dip in the stock market occurred, it was bought.
  • The capsules are about giving an edge and the big picture, not about individual companies.  We use individual companies to illustrate concepts.
  • Today investors got a shocking data point from AT&T (T) earnings.  Here are the details:
    • AT&T reported 813,000 postpaid phone net adds.  This is an important number for AT&T, and these additions were excellent.
    • AT&T reported earnings of $0.65 per share vs. consensus of $0.63 per share.
    • AT&T reported revenues of $29.64B vs. consensus of $29.48B.
    • AT&T is forecasting Mobility Service revenue growth of 4.5% – 5%.  This is stellar.
    • The company lowered its free cash flow outlook.  In part, this is due to some Americans not being able to pay their phone bills.  It has been well established that consumers these days value their phones so much that they pay their phone bill before they pay their car payment and rent or mortgage payment.  
    • Momo gurus are urging their followers to buy stocks more aggressively on some Americans not being able to pay their phone bills.  Their reasoning is that this data will influence the Fed to stop fighting inflation.  The gurus are longing for the good old days of zero interest rates and money printing.
    • The momo buying is primarily focused on semiconductor stocks, large cap tech stocks, software stocks, biotech stocks, and highly speculative popular momo stocks.  The momo crowd is selling defensive stocks  – after all, there is no reason to hold defense stocks any more because according to momo gurus the stock market bottom is in.
  • The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand.
  • The VUD indicator was solid green with a high magnitude after the momo crowd started aggressively buying the dip.  The relative magnitude of the VUD indicator tells us that the momo crowd was very aggressive and willing to pay higher and higher prices just to get fills.

The Wheat Deal

There is a report that Ukraine and Russia are set to sign a deal to export wheat from Ukraine on Friday.  You may recall that wheat prices exploded about 50% higher after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  As a full disclosure ZYX Short took a short position in wheat ETF WEAT, some of it near the highs.  Now wheat prices have returned to pre-invasion prices.  The short position in WEAT is highly profitable.

This should slightly help to reduce  inflation.  The cost of wheat is only a tiny faction of food inflation, but this will dent the inflationary sentiment.

Money Flows

The momo crowd money flows since the Morning Capsule are 🔒 (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial).

Smart money flows since the Morning Capsule are 🔒.

Short squeeze money flows are 🔒.

A Special Note To New Subscribers

Note the smart money behavior.  Smart money tends to sell into strength on strong up days.

New subscribers should consider adopting smart money’s way of investing and trading.


Sentiment is 🔒.

Sentiment is a contrary indicator at extremes.  In plain English, this means that when sentiment becomes extremely positive it is time to sell and when sentiment becomes extremely negative it is time to buy.


Orders on close are indeterminable at this time.

There is merit to watching the pattern of market on close orders as they represent the day’s dominant net cumulative activity by many professionals and funds.


The momo crowd money flows in gold are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.


Smart money flows are 🔒 in gold since the Morning Capsule.


The momo crowd money flows in oil are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.

Smart money flows in oil are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.

Buy Zones And Buy Now Ratings




This post was published yesterday in The Arora Report paid services.  Since then the Morning Capsule has had an update in the paid services.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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