Bank Of Japan

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that the stock market traced an outside reversal day.  An outside reversal day is a bearish pattern.  The last time this pattern occurred was in November 2021, and subsequently the stock market fell about 6.5%.
• This bearish pattern was triggered by a Tweet regarding the Bank of Japan.
• In yesterday’s Afternoon Capsule, we shared with you in advance:

There is a report that tomorrow, Bank of Japan (BoJ) will discuss changes to the yield curve.  If BoJ makes a major change, it will have major negative implications for the U.S. stock market.

• When the Fed and ECB raised rates, BoJ kept its monetary policy easy.  Finally, BoJ is moving towards the end of the decade-long easy monetary policy.  Here is a simplified, easy way to understand what is happening.
  • BoJ has decided to allow the yield on 10 year Japanese government bonds to rise up to 1%.  Previously, BoJ had capped the yield at 0.5%.
  • BoJ left its interest rates unchanged.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, BoJ’s policy shift will take place gradually, is negative for the U.S. stock and bond markets due to the carry trade, and presents an opportunity to buy yen and other Japanese assets.  
  • The Arora Report has given a new signal to buy yen.  The signal is in ZYX Allocation.  ZYX Allocation also has a buy zone for Japanese stocks.
  • After initial volatility on BoJ’s announcement, the momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks on BoJ not raising its rate.  The momo crowd is ignoring the band expansion.  This is keeping with the recent trend for investors to buy by focusing on the positive news and ignoring the negative news.  
• The U.S. economy is about 70% consumer based.  Therefore, The Arora Report pays significant attention to the personal income and spending data.  The latest data shows that personal income did not rise as much as expected, but consumers splurged by spending more than expected.  Here are the details:
  • Personal Spending came at 0.5% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Personal Income came at 0.3% vs. 0.5% consensus.
• The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge PCE came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.
• The Employment Cost Index came at 1.0% vs. 1.1% consensus.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.

Europe

Inflation expectations among consumers dropped to 4.8 vs. 6.0 prior.

GDP in France grew by 0.5% quarter-over-quarter vs. 0.1% consensus.   Consumer Price Index (CPI) in France came at 4.3% year-over-year vs. 4.3% consensus.  Month-over-month CPI came at 0.0% vs. 0.2% consensus.

In Germany, GDP came at -0.2% quarter-over-quarter vs. 0.1% consensus.

China

The Chinese government is seeking advice from stock brokers on how to run up the stock market.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil 

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1995, silver futures are at $24.45, and oil futures are at $80.13.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4596 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are up 150 points.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding 🔒 in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of 🔒, and short term hedges of 🔒. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

Strong Economic Data

Please click here for a chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, DJI, INDU)

Note the following:

• The chart shows that DJIA has shown a winning streak for 13 consecutive days.  DJIA is higher this morning in the premarket.  If the trend continues, today may be the 14th consecutive high in DJIA.
• The chart compares DJIA to S&P 500 ETF SPY and Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ.
• The chart shows that DJIA is leading the other two leading indexes during this winning streak.
• Previously, DJIA had been lagging because it does not contain all of the magnificent seven stocks that have led the rally.
• It is said that history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.  In many ways, the DJIA winning streak is similar to pre-crash streaks of the past.
  • DJIA had a 13 day winning streak in January 1987.  In October 1987, the stock market crashed, losing 22% in one day.
  • There are similarities to July 1929 when DJIA had a winning streak of 11 days.  Subsequently, the stock market experienced the famous 1929 crash.
  • It is important to note that neither the 1929 nor 1987 streak resulted in a crash immediately.
• The economic data released this morning is very strong.  Here are the details:
  • Q2 GDP-Adv came at 2.4% vs. 1.6% consensus.
  • Q2 GDP Deflator-Adv came at 2.2% vs. 3.0% consensus.
  • Durable orders came at 4.7% vs. 1.0% consensus.
  • Durable orders ex-transportation came at 0.6% vs. 0.2% consensus.
• All of the foregoing economic data represents lagging indicators.  The Arora Report focuses on leading indicators.  A leading indicator released this morning is initial jobless claims.  Initial claims came at 221K vs. 233K consensus.  This indicator carries heavy weight in the proven, adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.  The model is adaptive in that it changes itself with market conditions.  This adaptiveness is in part responsible for the success of The Arora Report.  Please click here to see how the adaptiveness is achieved.  Most models on Wall Street are static.  They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.
• There is aggressive buying in the premarket prompted by blowout earnings from META.   META, along with five other magnificent seven stocks, is in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.

Europe

The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to increase interest rates by 25 basis points in line with the consensus.  ECB stated that future decisions will be to ensure rates are sufficiently restrictive.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to trade below $30,000.  Bitcoin bulls are disappointed that whales did not run it up on the Fed announcement like they have in the past.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1958, silver futures are at $24.86, and oil futures are at $79.84.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4629 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4713, 4770, and 4826: support levels are 4600, 4460, and 4400.

DJIA futures are up 94 points.

Reality Of AI Laid Bare

Please click here for a chart of Microsoft stock (MSFT).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of MSFT stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• The Arora Report was one of the first last year to share with you the importance of new generative AI technology.  From the beginning, we have been sharing with you that AI is real and a fortune is to be made in AI over the next seven years.  Later, everybody jumped on the bandwagon.  Our call on the importance of AI has been spot on.
• There has been a sharp contrast between The Arora Report and momo gurus.
  • Momo gurus were late to the party.
  • Momo gurus have been promoting the narrative of getting rich quick with AI compared to The Arora Report’s call of making a fortune over the next seven years.
  • Many momo gurus simply lack the knowledge to make the correct call and they jump on whatever is in favor at the moment.  Thus, they cannot be blamed for who they are.  However, troubling is that some momo gurus knew better but still promoted the narrative of getting rich quick with AI.
• Microsoft’s and Alphabet’s (GOOG) earnings reports lay bare the reality of AI.  The reality from the earnings calls is that monetization of AI will be slow.  A lot of money is to be spent now and returns are far in the future.  
• The chart shows a big jump in MSFT stock on the introduction of the price of AI Copilot.  The jump in the stock added at least three times the value than AI Copilot is worth, even in an optimistic scenario.  This jump was on top of the already huge rise in the stock.  This demonstrates the behavior of the momo crowd that does no analysis.
• The chart shows the drop in MSFT stock on earnings.  The drop occurred during the conference call when it became obvious that AI monetization would be slow.
• The chart shows the trendline.  Prudent investors will be carefully watching to see if the trendline holds.
• Microsoft is in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio and there are large unrealized gains.  All investors should consider deeply understanding three AI revenue streams for Microsoft due to Microsoft’s importance in making a fortune in AI.  An in-depth podcast titled “Microsoft AI Advantage: Three Highly Profitable AI Revenue Streams” went live yesterday.  The podcast is available in Arora Ambassador Club.
• Alphabet stock went higher after the earnings, but not because of AI.  When it is all said and done, Alphabet is an advertising company.  The dollars spent on advertising depend on the overall macroeconomic conditions.  The economy has stayed strong and so has advertising at Alphabet.  There are several important points about Alphabet that all investors need to understand.
  • Alphabet has more AI engineers than anybody in the world.
  • Until recently, Alphabet had spent more money on AI than any other company in the world.
  • ChatGPT is based on the transformer model that is based on a paper written by an Alphabet employee in 2017.
  • Google simply sat on the technology it was developing allowing Microsoft to take the lead.  In spite of the foregoing positives, make no mistake, Alphabet faces the biggest disruptive challenge from AI and risk to its stock. To understand deeply, the AI landscape and challenges to Google, listen to the podcasts titled “Full Frontal Assault: ChatGPT vs. Bard” and “ChatGPT: Potentially The Most Important Breakthrough Since The iPhone” in Arora Ambassador Club.
• Microsoft and Alphabet are two of the magnificent seven stocks that have led the rally.  Six of the seven magnificent seven stocks have been in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.  In addition, there was a profitable trade on the seventh stock that is not in the Model Portfolio. 
• Investors are eagerly awaiting the Fed’s decision.  The Fed decision will be announced at 2pm ET followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm ET.
  • The expectation is for a 25 basis point hike.
  • We will be carefully analyzing the future course of the Fed.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.

AI Garbage

We have been using AI to help with market analysis for over 30 years.  One of the software companies founded by Nigam Arora was based on AI.  Even with all the advances in AI, AI is nowhere near close to doing the comprehensive 360 degree analysis that private investors, investment advisors, and money managers alike have come to expect from The Arora Report.

Lately, investors have been inundated with sales pitches based on investment advice using AI.  Gullible investors have been falling prey.  The SEC is likely to move against AI garbage by proposing guidelines.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude oil inventories came at a build of 1.319M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 1.969M barrels.

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to trade below $30,000.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1971, silver futures are at $24.79, and oil futures are at $78.69.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4584 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are down 111 points.

Bulls Encouraged

Please click here for a chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone straight up in the month of July.
• Strength is spreading from the magnificent seven to other large cap stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
• The trendline on the chart shows that the slope is steep.  Historically, such a steep slope is not sustained.
• RSI on the chart shows that the market is very overbought.
• In The Arora Report analysis, the primary reason  for strength in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is not the macro or the fundamentals but a rush to buy the laggards in the stock market.
• Yesterday, we shared with you in the Morning Capsule:

To date, about 20% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings.  These earnings are down about 9% from the prior year.  As earnings have fallen, the stock market has gone up on PE expansion.

•   This morning, the story on earnings is better beyond tech stocks.
  • GM is raising its profit targets by at least $1B, and its second quarter earnings beat the consensus on pent up demand for large SUVs and pickups.
  • GE is raising its guidance, and second quarter earnings are better than the consensus as pent up demand for travel increases sales of jet engines.
  • Paint maker Sherwin-Williams (SHW) reported great earnings on strong demand for paint.
• The enthusiasm from a rally in the Chinese stock market is spilling over into the U.S.  China is signaling stimulus to increase consumption and also for real estate.
• Investors are eagerly waiting for earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) that will be released after the market close.
• The FOMC meeting is starting today.  The Fed will announce its rate decision tomorrow.
• Historically, the momo crowd buys ahead of the Fed.
• Sentiment continues to be very positive, bordering on extreme but has not yet reached extreme.  We previously shared with you:

Going into the critical week, sentiment is very positive, bordering on extreme.  When sentiment reaches extremely positive, it is a contrary signal.  In plain English it means time to sell.  As a reminder, sentiment is not a precise timing indicator.  In general, you want to buy when sentiment is extremely negative, and take profits when sentiment is extremely positive.

• The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.  The consensus is 111.5.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to trade below $30,000.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1959, silver futures are at $24.71, and oil futures are at $78.57.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4586  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are down 3 points.

Critical Week

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that ahead of the critical week, the stock market is levitating midway between the support zone and the resistance zone.
• The chart shows the stock market is stretched to the upside relative to the 200 day moving average shown in yellow.
• RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is overbought.
• This is a critical week for central banks.
  • FOMC will start its meeting tomorrow and announce its decision at 2pm ET on Wednesday followed by Powell’s press conference.  The consensus is for a 25 bps rate hike.
    • Bulls believe that this will be the last rate hike and then the Fed will start cutting rates in September.  Bulls are gunning to run up the stock market to the resistance zone shown on the chart.
    • Bears believe that there may still be one or two more rate hikes ahead.    Bears believe the stock market will turn down after the Fed meeting.
    • In The Arora Report analysis, unless the economic data changes, the probability of a rate cut in September is low.  
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points.
  • So far, Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been an outlier, keeping its easy money policy.
    • At The Arora Report, we will be keeping a close eye for any signs of a pivot at BoJ towards tighter policy as inflation is rising past the 2% target. 
    • The consensus is that a tightening may occur in October.
• Historically, the momo crowd buys ahead of the Fed meeting and runs up the stock market.  The reason is that the momo crowd buys on hope.  In contrast, smart money tends to reduce  risk ahead of the Fed meeting.
• About one third of S&P 500 companies will be reporting earnings this week.
  • Among the tech stocks, critical earnings are from Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL).  These stocks have run up on AI frenzy.
  • Among non-tech earnings, important earnings that may potentially have an impact on the market are from McDonald’s (MCD), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), General Motors (GM), Ford (F), Mondelez (MDLZ), and Hershey (HSY).
• To date, about 20% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings.  These earnings are down about 9% from the prior year.  As earnings have fallen, the stock market has gone up on PE expansion.
• Investors should note that among the earnings reported so far, critical earnings were from Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX).  Both stocks went down after the earnings release.
• Going into the critical week, sentiment is very positive, bordering on extreme.  When sentiment reaches extremely positive, it is a contrary signal.  In plain English it means time to sell.  As a reminder, sentiment is not a precise timing indicator.  In general, you want to buy when sentiment is extremely negative, and take profits when sentiment is extremely positive.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.

Europe

PMI is a leading indicator.  Leading indicators carry heavy weight in the proven ZYX Asset Allocation Model.  The model is adaptive in that it changes itself with market conditions.  The adaptiveness is, in part, responsible for the accurate calls of The Arora Report.  Most models on Wall Street are static.  They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.  Please click here to see how adaptiveness is achieved.

A number less than 50 indicates economic contraction.  Here are the details of the latest data from Europe:

• Euro area manufacturing PMI came at 42.7 vs. 43.5 consensus.
• Euro area services PMI came at 51.1 vs. 51.6 consensus.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

There is disappointment that whales did not run up bitcoin over the weekend.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1967, silver futures are at $24.67, and oil futures are at $77.84.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4573 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are up 31 points.