WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: STOCK MARKET REACHES TACTICAL PROFIT TAKING ZONE, POWELL’S FAVORITE INDICATOR PROVIDES NO RELIEF

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

STOCK MARKET REACHES TACTICAL PROFIT TAKING ZONE, POWELL’S FAVORITE INDICATOR PROVIDES NO RELIEF

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Profit Taking Zone

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The stock has reached the tactical profit taking zone.
  • The chart shows the tactical profit taking zone.
  • Our call has been to initiate tactical positions but not very long term positions.  Now there are very nice profits on several tactical positions.  Of note are Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT), where stocks have surged after earnings but were previously in the buy zones.  Please see separate tactical profit taking posts.
  • Profit taking applies to all tactical positions in ZYX Buy, ZYX Allocation, and ZYX Emerging.  Please see separate posts.
  • Profit taking does not apply to ZYX Short.
  • Profit taking does not apply to very long term positions that investors have been holding for a while.  Consider continuing to hold very long term good positions.  However, investors may want to adjust based on personal preference and their portfolios.
  • As always, continue to make a distinction between tactical and strategic positions. Tactical positions are separate and distinct from very long term positions.
  • Consider not initiating new tactical positions at this time as this is the time to take advantage of the strength to book profits on tactical positions.
  • Please see Afternoon Capsules to learn about tactical positions and strategic positions.
  • Those who want deep knowledge about the true nature of the markets and how to profit from the true nature, consider attending the Bullet Proof Your Portfolio Seminar.  Many attendees find the seminar life changing.

Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge

PCE is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.  There have been reports that Powell watches this indicator closely.  The just released PCE data is providing ammunition to stock market bears at a time when many bears are throwing in the towel.

PCE came at 1.0% vs. 1.0% consensus.  The highest number on record is 1.2% in 1980.

Core PCE came at 0.6% vs. 0.6% consensus.

Personal income came at 0.6% vs. 0.5% consensus.

Personal spending came at 1.1% vs. 0.8% consensus.

Musk

Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk tweeted “Inflation might be trending down. More Tesla commodity prices are trending down than up.”

Earnings

Procter & Gamble (PG), the consumer products giant, is joining AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), and Walmart (WMT) in issuing a warning about consumers cutting back.

Earnings from AMZN and AAPL were better than the consensus in some respects and worse than the consensus in other respects.  However, the momo crowd is focused on the good parts and ignoring the bad parts.  The momo crowd is aggressively buying AMZN and AAPL stocks.

South Korea

We have been sharing with you that South Korea may turn out to be a leading indicator of the global economy.  There is good news today.  Industrial production rose 1.9% vs. a consensus of a decline of 0.4%.

Europe

Eurozone Q2 flash GDP came at 0.7% vs. 0.2% consensus.  In The Arora Report analysis, investors should ignore this number as this is looking in the rear view mirror.  The Arora Report call is a 90% probability of a recession in Europe.  

CPI in Eurozone hit a record 8.9% year over year vs. 8.7% consensus.

Japan

July Tokyo CPI came at 2.5% year over year vs. 2.3% consensus.  This is the fastest increase since 2014.  Japan is important because the Bank of Japan is the only major central bank still pursuing easy money including money printing policies.  One of the reasons is that Japan has not experienced inflation.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒 but expect the market to open 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is slightly stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1763, silver futures are at $19.38, and oil futures are $98.87.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4200, 4318 and 4400: support levels are 4000,3950 and 3860.

DJIA futures are down 14 points.

Protection Bands And What To Do Now?

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding 🔒 in cash or treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of 🔒, and short term hedges of 🔒. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

 

MOMO GURUS VERY WRONG ON GDP BUT TWIST TO BUY STOCKS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

See also  MOMO CROWD CELEBRATES SOME AMERICANS NOT BEING ABLE TO PAY THEIR PHONE BILLS

GDP

Please click here for a chart of  Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

  • On July 25, in advance of the GDP release, we wrote,

GDP will be released on Thursday.  The consensus is 0.5%.  In our analysis at The Arora Report, there is a high probability of a negative print.  If there is a negative print, it will be two negative numbers in a row. Since World War II, there have been 10 incidents of two consecutive quarters with negative GDP – every time there was a recession.  This is a 100% batting average.

  • Our call has proven spot on.  GDP shrank by 0.9%.
  • The risk of recession has increased.  Previously, we made a call that the probability of recession in the US was 80% and in Europe it was 90%.
    • Now we are revising the call – the probability of a recession in the US is 85%.
  • Momo gurus have been predicting that GDP would be a positive number.  This was one of the pillars of their narrative to buy stocks.  Now that the momo gurus’ call on GDP has been proven very wrong, what are they saying? We will find out more as the day progresses.  Expect them to twist again and come up with a new narrative to persuade investors to buy stocks.
    • A large number of investors follow momo gurus on the belief that the job of the momo gurus is to be right as much as they can and help investors make money.  This couldn’t be farther from the truth.  The job of the momo gurus is to persuade investors to continue buying stocks by twisting the data to come up with persuasive narratives.
  • The chart shows when the GDP data was released.  The chart shows volatility with points marked “high” and “low.”
  • The chart shows that there was significant buying by the momo crowd on the release.
  • The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand.
  • The VUD indicator is positive indicating a net demand for stocks.  Note, that the VUD indicator is green even after the release of the GDP number and momo gurus are proven wrong. The reason is that those who are concerned are inactive while the momo crowd is buying. 

Jobless Claims

Initial claims came at 256K vs. 253K consensus.  This indicates that the labor market is still strong even though the economy is shrinking.

Manchin Schumer Deal

In Washington, there is an unexpected deal between Senator Manchin and Majority Leader Schumer.  On its face, the deal will raise $379 billion and spend $433 billion resulting in a deficit reduction of $300+ billion.  Remember that these are just estimates.  When it is all said and done, there may be no deficit reduction.  However, it will not be known for a long time.

The immediate implication for investors is that there are credits for EV and solar.  Solar stocks such as NOVA, RUN, SPWR, ENPH, SEDG, and FSLR are running.

Be careful with solar ETF TAN because it contains many Chinese stocks.  As a full disclosure, a signal was given this morning in ZYX Buy on NOVA.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is being bought along with speculative momo stocks.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒 but expect the market to open 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up on recession fears.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1763, silver futures are at $19.60, and oil futures are $99.27.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4000, 4200 and 4318: support levels are 3950, 3860 and 3770.

DJIA futures are down 44 points.

 

MICROSOFT LEADS ‘NOT AS BAD AS FEARED’ RALLY AHEAD OF THE FED

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Not As Bad As Feared

Please click here for a chart of  Microsoft (MSFT).

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture and not about an individual company.  The chart of Microsoft is being used to illustrate the big picture.
  • The chart shows when Microsoft earnings were released.
  • Microsoft missed earnings on most of the metrics.   The most important is Azure growth, it came at 40% vs. 43.1% consensus.  The chart shows the low to which Microsoft stock fell after the earnings miss.
  • The chart shows a dramatic spike up in the MSFT stock when MSFT guided growth for the year in double digits.
  • MSFT guide caused stock futures to open significantly higher.
  • The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand.
  • The chart shows that the VUD indicator was mostly orange during the explosive rally.  This indicates that buyers were extremely aggressive and willing to buy irrespective of the price but there were sellers waiting to sell only at high prices.
  • Here is the story of other key earnings.
    • Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) missed on every single metric with the exception of advertising.  Investors were fearful of advertising after warnings from Snap (SNAP) and  Twitter (TWTR).   Investors bought on the company not missing advertising revenues.
    • Boeing (BA) missed the earnings but investors bought on earnings not including any new charges.
    • Texas Instruments (TXN), a key semiconductor manufacturer, reported solid results.  Investors bought oblivious of the fact that going forward the company is facing pricing pressures.
    • Visa (V) reported solid earnings.  Visa is not seeing the issues with consumers that Walmart (WMT) and AT&T (T) are seeing.
    • Teradyne (TER),  a key semiconductor testing equipment company, reported good earnings but is guiding lower.
  • The sum total of the foregoing is that the momo crowd got an excuse to aggressively buy stocks because earnings were not as bad as feared.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, earnings will get worse unless the Fed stops fighting inflation or inflation dramatically drops.  However, this is foreward-looking analysis.  For the time being the market is controlled by the momo crowd and the momo crowd is not interested in looking forward.  They just want to buy stocks now.
See also  CHINESE JETS FLY CLOSE TO TAIWAN – BE CAREFUL ABOUT THE TAIL RISK

The Fed

The FOMC will announce its decision at 2:00 pm ET.  Powell press conference will take place at 2:30 pm.  There is a 75% probability of a 75 basis point rate hike.

The key question is what will Powell say about the forward guidance.  Smart money will be paying attention to the forward guidance.  As far as the momo crowd is concerned, their gurus have already told them to buy aggressively after the Fed.

Durable Goods

Durable Goods came at 1.9% vs. -0.5% consensus.

Durable Goods Ex-transportation came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.

South Korea

We have previously shared with you positive data from South Korea.  South Korea is a major export economy and potentially offers an early indicator.

Today there is negative data from South Korea – consumer confidence fell to 86.0 from 96.4.

South Korea has been continuously followed for 15 years in ZYX Emerging.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 in gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is bouncing in sympathy with Coinbase (COIN).  COIN stock fell out of bed yesterday on SEC investigation.  As a full disclosure, ZYX Short had a signal to short sell COIN right near the top and the position is now very profitable.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒 and will depend on the Fed but expect the market to open strongly higher on momo buying.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1715, silver futures are at $18.53, and oil futures are $94.43.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4000, 4200 and 4318: support levels are 3950, 3860 and 3770.

DJIA futures are up 158 points.

 

WALMART SHOCKER TWISTED INTO ANOTHER REASON TO BUY STOCKS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Walmart Shocker

Please click here for a chart of  Walmart (WMT).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows a big drop in Walmart stock.
  • Walmart is the most sophisticated retailer in the world. Walmart has one of the best analytical forecasting capabilities and the most extensive data on millions of consumers.  Walmart has the best management there is, yet it is being forced to preannounce earnings.  Here are the details:
    • Consumers are spending more on consumables due to inflation.  After spending on consumables, consumers do not have enough money left so they are cutting back on general merchandise.
    • Not long ago WMT was surprised as to how rapidly the consumer was getting hurt and WMT was forced to lower guidance.  Clearly, WMT did not lower guidance enough as they underestimated how badly the consumer was hurting.
    • WMT lowered Q2 EPS guidance by 8 – 9% vs. consensus of an increase of 2%.
    • For the full year, WMT reduced EPS guidance by 11 – 13% vs. consensus of a decline of 1%.
    • Since WMT touches such a large swath of the US population, there are significant implications for the US  economy from WMT’s preannouncement.
  • It is important to pay attention to momo gurus because they move the markets.
  • Give it to the momo gurus – they have already twisted the WMT news into a reason to buy stocks.  Here are their talking points:
    • Since the consumer is getting hit so badly, it will force the Fed to stop its fight against inflation, and in turn, this will run up the stock market.
    • WMT customers are lower income and lower middle class.  This segment of the population, according to some gurus, does not matter for their favorite sectors such as technology.
    • The problem is not widespread but specific to WMT.  They correctly mention that McDonald’s (MCD), and Coca-Cola (KO) reported good earnings.  According to the gurus, if the consumer is spending at McDonald’s and buying coke the consumer is doing just fine.
    • To persuade their followers to buy stocks momo gurus are also citing good earnings from UPS (UPS), 3M Company (MMM), and General Electric (GE).
    • They are ignoring that General Motors (GM) is expecting consumers to slow down.
    • Here is a question for prudent investors to ponder. The stock market is significantly more complex than the business of Walmart. Walmart with its top-notch management and top-notch forecasting capabilities along with real-time data on millions of consumers is not able to predict correctly rapid changes in consumer behavior.  How come momo gurus are able to predict with certainty that Walmart news is an opportunity to buy stocks?
    • Do not underestimate the power of momo gurus.  They have a large following of investors that do not do analysis of their own.  Momo gurus are capable of running the market up.
  • The prevailing momo narrative is that the stock market will make significant gains after the Fed’s announcement tomorrow.
  • The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand.
  • The VUD indicator shows net supply of Walmart stocks.

Good News From South Korea

We have previously pointed out that South Korea is a major export economy worth paying attention to.  There is good news from South Korea.  South Korea’s Q2 GDP was up 0.7% vs. 0.4% consensus.

South Korea’s finance minister is expecting inflation to peak in September or October.

Europe

We previously shared with you that Putin is tightening the screws on  Germany by cutting gas supplies.  We have previously shared with you that there was a plan in Europe to cut gas consumption by 15%.  Now European countries have agreed to the 15% cut.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stock in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Coinbase (COIN) is being investigated by the SEC.  This is dampening sentiment in bitcoin.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

See also  WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: TAKE PARTIAL PROFITS ON TACTICAL POSITIONS – DARK ADVERTISING PICTURE – EUROZONE BUSINESS ACTIVITY FALLS

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1717, silver futures are at $18.52, and oil futures are $98.17.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4000, 4200, and 4318: support levels are 3860, 3770, and 3630.

DJIA futures are down 151 points.

 

STOCK BUYING ON HOPE STRATEGY AHEAD OF KEY EARNINGS, THE FED AND GDP

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Pivotal Week

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart compares S&P 500 ETF SPY with Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ, semiconductor ETF SMH, commodities ETF PDBC, and long duration innovation ETF ARKK.
  • The chart shows that commodities ETF PDBC has done the best year to date, and long duration ETF ARKK has done the worst.
  • The chart shows that starting in mid June the tables turned –  PDBC has been hit hard, and ARKK has experienced a strong rally.
  • The foregoing behavior is the result of increasing fears of recession starting mid June and momo crowd buying on the hope strategy that the Fed will stop fighting inflation.
  • With the context given above, this is a pivotal week.
    • FOMC is meeting, and we will know their decision on Wednesday.  The consensus is for a 75 basis point rate hike.
    • GDP will be released on Thursday.  The consensus is 0.5%.  In our analysis at The Arora Report, there is a high probability of a negative print.  If there is a negative print, it will be two negative numbers in a row. Since World War II, there have been 10 incidents of two consecutive quarters with negative GDP – every time there was a recession.  This is a 100% batting average. 
    • Key earnings are ahead this week from Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT).
  • Expect significant volatility based on the Fed, GDP, and earnings. In many ways, this is a make or break week for the stock market.  
  • As is often the case, there is a sharp contrast in the behavior of the momo crowd and smart money.  Smart money understands that there is a significant risk both to the upside and the downside.  As a result, smart money is cautious.  The Arora Report recommendation is to give precedence to return of capital over return on capital.
  • The momo crowd uses the hope strategy.  They are hoping for great earnings, great projections, the Fed ready to back down, and a great GDP.

Germany

July ifo Business Climate Index came at 88.6 vs. consensus of 90.2. This is the weakest number in two years.  In our analysis at The Arora Report, Germany is at the brink of a recession.  

South Korea

South Korea is a major export economy, and that is the reason to pay attention to it.  As a reference, Samsung (SSNLF) is a South Korean company.  South Korea’s leading index fell for the 13th consecutive month in June.

Gene Editing

CRISPR gene editing is behind the hopes of several biotech companies.  A lot of money has gone into gene editing.  There is a report from Tel Aviv University that CRISPR gene editing can trigger cancer in the long run.  If the report gets media attention, it may lead to a selloff in biotechs.  As an indicator, stocks to watch are CRSP, EDIT, and NTLA.

In The Arora Report analysis, if there is no selloff, this will be an indication that the momo crowd is in the buying mode irrespective of the news or facts. 

China Warns

China is strengthening its warning, including a military response to Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.  Prudent investors should keep a close watch.  The ETF to watch is EWT.  Taiwan has been continuously covered in ZYX Emerging for 15 years.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Over the weekend, bitcoin bulls were proclaiming that the bottom is in.  Bitcoin is range bound this morning.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒, but expect the market to open higher.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1723, silver futures are at $18.51, and oil futures are $96.61.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4000, 4200 and 4318: support levels are 3950, 3860 and 3770.

DJIA futures are up 135 points.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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