By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora
Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
AI, ARM IPO, AND $3.4 TRILLION OPTION EXPIRATION SUCK FEAR OUT OF THE STOCK MARKET – BE CAUTIOUS
No Fear
Please click here for a chart of volatility index (VIX).
Note the following:
- VIX is the fear gauge of Wall Street.
- The chart shows that VIX has fallen to the lowest level in two years.
- The fall in VIX is on the longest streak since 2017 – 118 consecutive days without back to back closes over 20.
- The VIX has closed under the 200 day moving average for 123 days in a row. This is the first time this is happening since 2009.
- $3.4 trillion notional value of options are expiring today. This is the largest September option expiration ever.
- The momo crowd aggressively started buying ARM shares after the regular session close yesterday and has continued to aggressively buy ARM shares in the IPO. Why is the momo crowd buying ARM so aggressively? The reason is that they believe that ARM is an AI play on par with Nvidia (NVDA). Nothing could be farther from the truth. From yesterday’s Morning Capsule:
In The Arora Report analysis, ARM is not an AI company, but facts do not matter in the stock market when investors are excited. ARM is being marketed as an AI company, and the momo crowd does not know any better.
- ARM is attempting to pivot to become an AI company. It has yet to be seen if they can succeed.
- Thank you for all of your emails requesting a podcast on ARM. We are starting work on a podcast on ARM. The podcast will be available in Arora Ambassador Club.
- Wall Street is driven by fear and greed. Historically, it pays to sell when fear is sucked out of the stock market and to buy when greed is sucked out of the stock market.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the lack of fear is a reason to be cautious at this time.
- New data from China is spurring buying in stocks across the globe. The data indicates that China’s economy might be bottoming.
- Industrial production came at 4.5% year-over-year vs. 4% consensus.
- Retail sales came at 4.6% year-over-year vs. 3.0% consensus.
- Unemployment rate came at 5.2% vs. 5.3% consensus.
- UAW is surgically striking against all of the big three automakers. This is unprecedented.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), and Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia, Alphabet (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF SPY and Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** gold in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
WTI crude futures earlier touched $91 before pulling back.
Oil is technically very overbought. For traders, Brent crude at $100 is the magnet.
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is range bound.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $1938, silver futures are at $23.27, and oil futures are at $90.36.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 4549 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.
DJIA futures are down 40 points.
Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
EXCITEMENT OVER ARM IPO AND AI BUT SLEW OF ECONOMIC DATA SHOWS HOTTER ECONOMY
Slew Of New Economic Data
Please click here for a chart of semiconductor ETF SMH. This is an important chart today in view of Arm Holdings (ARM) IPO.
Note the following:
- The chart shows semiconductors are levitating above the support zone.
- RSI on the chart shows that semiconductors are returning from an oversold condition.
- ARM IPO is today. ARM designs the chips that are used by many semiconductor manufacturers and are used in practically every smartphone available today. ARM is priced at $51 per share, raising close to $5B. The IPO was 10 times oversubscribed, which will likely push the stock higher when trading begins.
- In The Arora Report analysis, ARM is not an AI company, but facts do not matter in the stock market when investors are excited. ARM is being marketed as an AI company, and the momo crowd does not know any better.
- How high ARM trades after it opens will be an indication of investor sentiment, especially about AI.
- Semiconductors are the leading sector. How semiconductors perform after ARM IPO starts trading will also be a tell for the AI buying frenzy.
- Other than the ARM IPO, there is plenty of news to keep investors excited about AI. In The Arora Report analysis, the use of generative AI is rapidly expanding but competition is also increasing. The following illustrates the point:
- Amazon (AMZN) is launching its generative AI tool to help sellers better describe their goods.
- Adobe (ADBE) is undercutting the price of generative AI tools for images from OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 25 basis points. Importantly, ECB suggested it may be done raising interest rates.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the indication that ECB may be done raising interest rates is bullish for the stock market.
- In The Arora Report analysis, there is a slew of new economic data that shows the economy is hotter than the consensus.
- Inflation at the producer level is hotter than the consensus.
- Headline PPI came at 0.7% vs. 0.4% consensus. A big contributor is rising energy prices.
- Core PPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus, but when trade is excluded, the data is hotter.
- The U.S. economy is about 70% consumer based. Therefore prudent investors pay attention to retail sales. The mighty American consumer continues to spend excessively, often borrowing to spend.
- Retail sales came at 0.6% vs. 0.2% consensus.
- Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.6% vs. 0.4% consensus.
- Overall, the jobs picture is staying strong.
- Weekly initial claims came at 220K vs. 226K consensus.
- Inflation at the producer level is hotter than the consensus.
- Barring a last minute agreement, UAW is likely to announce a strike tonight.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the trading leading to quadruple witching tomorrow is driving stock prices higher this morning. Investors need to remember that Wall Street mechanics play a major part in market movements. It is important for both long term and short term investors to deeply understand Wall Street mechanics. Most of this knowledge is kept secret because of its high value. There are several podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club to help you become well versed in Wall Street mechanics.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon, Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF SPY and positive in Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The U.S. standard for crude oil, WTI, has reached the psychologically important level of $90. Oil prices have jumped significantly over the last two weeks.
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Crypto bulls need to pay special attention to the latest statement from SEC Chair Gensler on crypto: “I have never seen a field that is so ripe with misconduct.”
Bitcoin (BCT.USD) is range bound above $26,000.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $1926, silver futures are at $22.76, and oil futures are at $89.64.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 4540 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.
DJIA futures are up 205 points.
HOTTER CORE INFLATION BUT MOMO GURUS HAVE A NEW NARRATIVE, QUADRUPLE WITCHING AHEAD
Hotter Core Inflation
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows that the stock market is in between the top support zone and mini resistance zone.
- The chart shows that RSI is approaching oversold.
- The chart shows that, overall, the stock market is directionless.
- The newly released data shows that core inflation is running hotter than expected. Here are the details of the consumer price index.
- Headline CPI came at 0.6% vs. 0.6% consensus.
- Core CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus.
- Initially, both stock and bond markets reacted negatively to the hotter than expected core inflation, but buying came in quickly as momo gurus’ new narrative took hold. Momo gurus are often wrong. Nonetheless, you need to pay attention to them because the momo crowd blindly follows them.
- Momo gurus’ new narrative has two parts.
- Buy stocks because headline CPI came as expected. The flaw in this narrative is that on an annualized basis, headline CPI is at 7.2%. Momo gurus counter that the number is high because of higher oil prices and the resulting higher gas prices. Well, most people drive and spend money on gas; it is fine to exclude gas for analysis, but the reality is that rising oil prices can not simply be ignored.
- The second part of the momo gurus’ new narrative is to buy stocks by looking past the hotter than expected core CPI. The reason is that they claim to know that in the future core CPI will come down. Remember, Arora’s Second Law of Investing and Trading: “Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets.” The reality is that nobody knows, including momo gurus, what core CPI will do in the future.
- Producer Price Index, which measures inflation on the producer level, will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
- The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to retail sales. Retail sales data will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET. The consumer has been on a buying binge with excessive spending. There are many metrics that are showing that the consumer is running out of cash and charging more and more to credit cards. Tomorrow’s data will be a tell on the status of consumer spending.
- Tech CEOs are heading to Washington for a seven hour long session with senators on AI. All 100 senators have been invited. Expect the momo crowd to try to move up AI stocks. However, the session is closed to cameras. This will limit any upside buying.
- Quadruple witching is ahead on Friday. In quadruple witching, stock index futures, futures options, stock options, and single stock futures expire.
- Quadruple witching often leads to volatility. Historically, often, quadruple witching in September is vicious.
- ARM IPO is 10 times oversubscribed. This is creating positive sentiment.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band.
Europe
There is speculation that the European Central Bank will hike interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow.
The U.K.’s GDP contracted at the fastest monthly rate since December. Economic data in the U.K. has often led economic data in the U.S.
India
After the success of the G-20 summit in New Delhi, sentiment towards Indian stocks is approaching extremely positive. Keep in mind that when sentiment enters the extremely positive zone, it is a contrary signal. In plain English, this means that it is time to sell. However, sentiment is not a precise timing indicator.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), and Alphabet (GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF SPY and Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound above $26,000.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $1932, silver futures are at $23.17, and oil futures are at $89.23.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 4516 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.
DJIA futures are down 31 points.
INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION TO HOW IPHONE 15 TESTS NATIONALISM OVER STATUS SYMBOL IN CHINA
iPhone 15 Launch
Please click here for a chart of Apple stock (AAPL).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of Apple stock is being used to illustrate the point.
- The chart shows the drop in Apple stock on the news of China banning government workers from using iPhones.
- The chart shows Apple stock is at the top of the support zone.
- RSI on the chart shows Apple stock is neither overbought nor oversold going into the iPhone 15 launch. This is unusual. Historically, Apple stock gets overbought just before the launch of a new iPhone model.
- The chart shows that Apple stock was on its way to becoming overbought when the news from China hit.
- Apple stock is extremely important to the entire stock market because Apple has a weight of about 7.5% in S&P 500 and about 10.8% in Nasdaq 100. On top of that, there are a large number of popular companies that are Apple suppliers and tend to move with Apple stock.
- Sentiment about technology stocks is very important to the entire stock market. Moves in Apple stock have a disproportionate effect on the sentiment.
- Many market participants have been using Apple stock this year to park uninvested cash in lieu of a money market fund. If Apple stock falls, such cash will flee the stock, exaggerating the fall.
- In The Arora Report analysis, one of the most important items that prudent investors need to keep an eye on is how the iPhone 15 launch tests rising nationalism in China over the iPhone as a status symbol.
- iPhone sales in China are very different from the U.S. and Europe. Almost no one in the U.S. buys the iPhone as a status symbol. However, in China, a large number of iPhone buyers are buying the iPhone not because they love the iPhone but because it shows they are wealthy.
- Until now, if Chinese wanted a 5G phone, they did not have many made in China options. Now with the launch of Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro, they have a choice. By many accounts, Mate 60 Pro is better than iPhone 15.
- Since government employees have been banned from using iPhones, will these government employees recommend to their friends and family to not buy iPhones?
- The foregoing is very important as about 20% of Apple’s sales and profits come from China.
- China sales are even more important than it appears on the surface because in the U.S. and Europe, the iPhone market is saturated. In view of Apple’s declining revenues quarter after quarter, Apple needs growth in China.
- Apple touts growth in countries like India and Indonesia. However, in absolute terms, these numbers are small.
- Traditionally, Apple stock falls after the launch of a new model. However, this time is different because Apple did not run up going into the launch due to the China news. Prudent investors should carefully watch the reaction to the iPhone 15 launch. The reaction will be a tell.
- Even if you invest only in the U.S., you cannot escape implications of the breakthroughs in semiconductors and AI that are occurring in China. What happens in China will have a major impact on your portfolio over the next decade. Therefore, it is important to develop a better understanding of where China is going. Listen to the podcast titled “Implications Of Chinese Breakthrough For Investors – Apple Example” in Arora Ambassador Club.
- Expect the momo crowd to also buy ahead of the all important CPI release tomorrow.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple, Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF SPY and Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing aggressive buying as bitcoin bulls believe the support has held.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $1931, silver futures are at $23.28, and oil futures are at $88.54.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 4524 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.
DJIA futures are down 113 points.
MOMO BUYING AHEAD OF CPI, IPHONE 15, AND ARM IPO; AUTO WORKER STRIKE LIKELY
Auto Worker Strike Likely
Please click here for a chart of General Motors stock (GM).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of GM stock is being used to illustrate the point.
- The chart shows that GM stock has given up all of its summer rally gains. The reason is a potential strike by United Auto Workers (UAW).
- President Biden claims to be the most pro-union president. President Biden has been predicting that UAW will not strike.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the probability of a UAW strike is very high.
- UAW President Shawn Fain is talking about the possibility of a simultaneous strike against GM, Ford (F), and Stellantis (STLA).
- In The Arora Report analysis, if there is a simultaneous strike against all three automakers, it will put Michigan in a recession and will have a major negative impact on the U.S. economy.
- The union is especially upset that new plants such as those for batteries are not unionized.
- UAW is blaming the Biden administration for giving away billions of dollars of subsidies without demanding wage standards.
- All of the foregoing is positive for Tesla (TSLA) as Tesla is not unionized.
- On August 29, we shared with you:
Today, Tesla (TSLA) is turning on a massive Nvidia (NVDA) cluster consisting of 10,000 H100 GPUs. The cluster will be used to train FSD (Full Self-Driving). Tesla is also spending $1B to build its own Dojo supercomputer.
- There is heavy buying in TSLA stock in the early trade as a Wall Street bank highlights Dojo and states that Dojo can add up to $500B in value to Tesla.
- The momo crowd’s pattern is to buy ahead of events, ignoring the risk. The reason is that the momo crowd believes that every event that is ahead is going to run up the stock market. In the early trade, the momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks ahead of several events.
- CPI will be released on September 13 at 8:30am ET, followed by PPI on September 14 at 8:30am ET.
- The iPhone 15 launch is ahead. Historically, Apple (AAPL) stock runs going into the launch and is sold after the launch.
- There is very heavy demand for ARM (ARM) IPO. The IPO is five times oversubscribed. The price is likely to be raised.
- Oracle (ORCL) reports earnings after the close today. Adobe (ADBE) reports earnings on Thursday after the close. The momo crowd is excited about the AI potential of these two companies.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band.
Japan
The Japanese currency yen and Japanese bank stocks are surging on a comment by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda indicating that Japan could soon move away from negative interest rates.
As a full disclosure, there are positions in the Japanese yen ETF and a Japanese equity ETF in ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio by The Arora Report.
Vietnam
President Biden just completed a successful trip to Vietnam as the U.S. tries to peel Vietnam away from China. The two countries are agreeing on cooperating in AI, cloud computing, and semiconductors. Executives from Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Intel (INTC), Marvell (MRVL), Boeing (BA), and GlobalFoundries (GFS) attended an important summit. Boeing received a big aircraft order.
Vietnam offers a great opportunity for long term investors. The ETF of choice is VNM. Buy zones and ratings are in ZYX Emerging by The Arora Report. The Arora Report has continuously covered Vietnam for 16 years.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia, Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet, Meta (META), Tesla, and Apple.
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF SPY and positive in Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $1948, silver futures are at $23.41, and oil futures are at $87.18.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 4537 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.
DJIA futures are up 94 points.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.
Dr. Natasha Arora
Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.
