By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report. 

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

POWELL SPEAKS THE TRUTH – MARKET DOES NOT LIKE IT, CONSTERNATION ABOUT KENNEDY, GAETZ, AND HEGSETH

Nov 15, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Powell Speaks The Truth

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• It is worth a reminder that The Arora Report is politically agnostic.  Our sole job is to help our members extract the maximum amount of money out of the markets with the least possible risk.
• The price action on the chart shows that the rip roaring Trump rally is taking a breather.
• The chart shows that the stock market is still above the breakout line.
• RSI on the chart shows that the stock market has pulled back, reflecting a loss of momentum. The stock market is still overbought.
• The chart shows that the volume remains low.  This indicates that institutional investors are not rushing to buy stocks.
• Yesterday, Powell spoke that truth – the market did not like it.  Powell said, “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.”  Powell elaborated, “The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”
• Powell’s remarks brought some selling into stocks and bonds.
• This morning, in the early trade, selling continues.
• The reason for some selling is that the prevailing wisdom on Wall Street has been that another rate cut in December was a sure thing.  The Arora Report has been questioning Wall Street’s wisdom and sharing with you that the data does not support another rate cut.
• Some conservative commentators are upset believing that the reason Powell started rate cuts with a 50 bps cut was to help Kamala Harris get elected.  Now that Trump has been elected, Powell is in no hurry to cut rates.
• In The Arora Report analysis, even though the data does not support a rate cut in December, Powell is going to feel pressure from Trump and Republicans to cut rates.  There is also a significant amount of data between now and the December Fed meeting.
• In The Arora Report analysis, based on a 360 degree view, including the political pressure and the pressure from Wall Street to cut rates, the probability of a rate cut in December is now about 60%.  
• There is consternation about several Trump picks.  Impacting the market most are Trump’s picks of RKF Jr, Matt Gaetz, and Pete Hegseth.  These picks are bringing selling in vaccine makers such as Moderna (MRNA), BioNTech (BNTX), Novavax (NVAX), Merck (MRK), and Pfizer (PFE).  There is also selling in other healthcare stocks, including weight loss drug companies Eli Lilly (LLY) and NovoNordisk (NVO), and packaged food stocks such as The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC).  There is also selling in defense stocks such as Boeing (BA), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and RTX (RTX).  There is also selling in big tech stocks.
• The latest economic data is strong.  The U.S. economy is about 70% consumer based.  For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to retail sales.  Here are the details of the just released data:
  • Retail sales came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.
• There are hundreds of indicators.  At The Arora Report, the system has been refined through decades of research to share with you only those indicators that matter.  Normally, we do not mention the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index.  Today, we are mentioning it due to its exceptional strength.  The index came at 31.2 vs. 3.3 consensus.  This indicates that manufacturing in the New York area has picked up steam.   If similar strength is happening in the rest of the country, that would argue against further cutting interest rates. The problem for investors is that stock valuations are so high that to sustain them, rate cuts are needed.  
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Even the slightest dips in bitcoin (BTC.USD) are being bought.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5943 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6017, 6131, and 6256: support levels are 5926, 5748, and 5622.

DJIA futures are down 185 points.

Gold futures are at $2571, silver futures are at $30.74, and oil futures are at $68.04.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

HOTTER WHOLESALE INFLATION, POWELL SPEECH , BRAZIL PIVOTS TO CHINA, CHINA READY TO COUNTER TRUMP

Nov 14, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Hotter Wholesale Inflation

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that the stock market is levitating near the highs after the breakout.
• The chart shows that the stock market was running up before the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), but there is slight selling after the release of PPI.
• In the early trade, there is buying in celebration of Republicans maintaining control of the House, but the euphoria is being tempered by economic data.
• RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is overbought and due for a pullback.
• The chart shows that the volume on this rally has been low.  In The Arora Report analysis, the interpretation this time is different from the normal interpretation of volume.  Normally, when a rally occurs on low volume, it indicates a lack of conviction.  In this case, the interpretation is that the low volume on this rally is positive for the market because it means that many investors have not participated in this rally.  Since investors who have not participated in this rally are likely to buy any pullback providing fuel, the interpretation here is that low volume is positive for the stock market.  
• The Arora Report call remains to scale in on the dips.  
• PPI data is another data point in a series of data that shows inflation is running hotter than expected.  Here are the details:
  • Headline PPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.
  • Core PPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
• Powell is speaking this afternoon.  We will be carefully listening to see if Powell addresses hotter CPI and PPI data.
• The prevailing wisdom on Wall Street is that the Fed is going to ignore the data while claiming that it is data dependent and cut interest rates again in December.
• In The Arora Report analysis, if the data between now and the December FOMC meeting is stronger than expected, the Fed is going to have a very difficult time cutting interest rates again.  
• The jobs picture remains strong.  Initial jobless claims came at 217K vs. 220K consensus.  Initial jobless claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.  In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.  Please click here to see how this is achieved.  One of the reasons behind The Arora Report’s unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model.  Most models on Wall Street are static.  They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.
• More implications of Trump’s election are beginning to surface across the globe.  These implications will start impacting the stock market in due course.  Please see below.
• In important news, Disney (DIS) stock is surging on guidance better than the consensus and whisper numbers.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Brazil

In a direct challenge to Trump, Brazil is pivoting to China to help with its development instead of seeking help from the U.S. 

China To Counter Trump 

China is getting retaliatory measures ready against the U.S. to counter Trump.  China will reportedly impose its own counter tariffs against American companies.  

In The Arora Report analysis, investors need to be extremely careful with companies such as Apple (AAPL) and Starbucks (SBUX) that do significant business with China.  In The Arora Report analysis, Chinese authorities are likely to exempt Tesla (TSLA) because they see Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk as a conduit to influence Trump.  

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA) and  Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in AAPL.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is ***in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a draw of 0.777M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 1M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is trading above $90,000.  There were several attempts to sell off bitcoin yesterday, but those attempts were met with aggressive buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6016 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131 and 6256: support levels are 5926, 5748, and 5622.

DJIA futures are up 91 points.

Gold futures are at $2561, silver futures are at $30.22, and oil futures are at $69.15.

BUYING IN STOCKS ON INFLATION DATA, MUSK AND RAMASWAMY DOGE

Nov 13, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Extreme Sentiment

Please click here for a chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).

Note the following:

• In The Arora Report analysis, bonds have the potential to spoil the stock market’s party.  Prudent investors need to keep an eye on bonds.  
• The chart shows that yields are pulling back in the early trade after the release of the Consumer Price Index.
• The chart shows that on Trump’s win, TLT approached the high band of the support zone.
• The chart shows that the momo crowd ran TLT up back into the bottom resistance zone.
• The chart shows that TLT failed to breakout above the bottom resistance zone and has now pulled back below the bottom band of the resistance zone.
• The chart shows two spot on Arora calls:
  • Contrary Arora call that bonds will fall when the Fed cut rates. This call was made at a time when everyone was buying bonds.
  • Arora call on the impact of the election on bonds
• Inflation data came inline with consensus.  Here are the details:
  • Headline CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.
  • Core CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
• In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should pay attention to the fact that the 0.3% core inflation rate is 3.6% annualized.  The Fed’s stated target is 2%.  
• The extreme positive sentiment is evident from the following this morning in the early trade:
  • Bonds rose and yields fell on inflation data.
  • Stock futures were lower prior to the data. Aggressive buying came into stocks after the data.  Buying is aggressive in Trump linked stocks such as Tesla (TSLA).
  •  Bitcoin was pulling back before CPI was released.  Aggressive buying came in after the release of the data.
  • None of the foregoing would make sense based on the data alone, but Wall Street’s thinking is that the Fed will be under pressure from Trump to cut rates in December – the fact that the data does not support a rate cut does not matter because of the political pressure.
• Momo gurus are already out with a new reason to buy stocks – inflation was hot but not worse than expected.
• Trump has announced that Musk and Ramaswamy will head the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).  On a lighter note, Doge is the crypto coin that was developed as a joke and subsequently championed by Musk.  An indication of extreme sentiment is that the joke coin is now worth more than Ford Motor Company (F).  On a serious note, if Musk is truly able to cut $2T out of the federal budget, expect a recession and a 20% – 40% drop in the stock market.  In The Arora Report analysis, the primary driving force behind this stock market rise is the excess money in the system.  
• Initial jobless claims and Producer Price Index will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET and may be market moving.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

China

There is a sigh of relief in Chinese and Asian markets in that even though Trump is appointing China hawks, he has not appointed extreme China hawks so far.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), and TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL),  Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing aggressive buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6018 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6017, 6131, and 6256 : support levels are 5926, 5748, and 5622.

DJIA futures are up 21 points.

Gold futures are at $2620, silver futures are at $31.15, and oil futures are at $67.43.

MUSK SPENDS $130M – TESLA GAINS $344B ON TRUMP ELECTION, STOCK MARKET FOCUSING ON TRUMP APPOINTMENTS

Nov 12, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Incredible Gain

Please click here for a chart of Tesla stock (TSLA).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of TSLA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• The chart shows TSLA stock broke out on Trump’s election.
• The chart shows the Arora buy signal that was given in the premarket after Trump’s election.
• The chart shows there have been nice profits on this trade.  Partial profits have been taken.
• The chart shows that TSLA stock hit the low band of the resistance zone.
• The chart shows that this morning TSLA stock is backing off.  This is an early indication that the Trump rally may be slowing.
• Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk spent $130M supporting Trump.  Since Trump’s election, TSLA stock has added $344B in market value.  This is an incredible gain.  There are additional gains in the private market value of Musk’s SpaceX.
•  Wall Street believes that Musk’s relationship with Trump will yield substantial gains for both Tesla and SpaceX.
• TSLA has been added to the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.   Please see the Model Portfolio for the target zone and recommended position size.  The TSLA position is suitable for aggressive investors.  Those who are not aggressive may consider a smaller quantity.
• RSI on the chart shows that TSLA is overbought and may pullback.
• In The Arora Report analysis, markets across the globe are now focused on Trump’s appointments for key positions.  
  • Trump appears to be picking China hawks.  As a result, stocks in Hong Kong fell 2.8%.
  • Trump appears to be picking Iran hawks who are very pro-Israel.  This is causing markets in Asia and Europe to fall.  This is also bringing buying into oil and gold. 
  • Trump appears to be picking deportation hawks.  This is impacting markets in Mexico and South America.  
• In The Arora Report analysis, the rally yesterday was driven primarily by retail investors after the weekend pump on social media.  Prudent investors need to be careful that the gurus who pump on social media often dump into the rallies caused by their followers buying.  
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) rally is slowing as it approaches $90,000.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6029 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131 and 6256: support levels are 6017, 5926, and 5748.

DJIA futures are up 46 points.

Gold futures are at $2616, silver futures are at $30.81, and oil futures are at $68.87.

MONEY FLOWS OUT OF GOLD INTO BITCOIN, NEXT BITCOIN STOP $100,000, AGGRESSIVE BUYING IN TESLA

Nov 11, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Trump Trade Rolls On 

Please click here for a chart of bitcoin (BTC.USD).

Note the following:

• Our call on bitcoin has proven spot on.   On Friday, we wrote:

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is being bought on hope that whales will take advantage of low liquidity during the weekend to run bitcoin up over $80,000.

• The chart shows that bitcoin has moved to $81,866 as of this writing.
• RSI on the chart shows that bitcoin is overbought.  However, in The Arora Report analysis, the RSI pattern shown on the chart is setting up for a higher bitcoin price, perhaps after a shallow pullback.  The next target for bitcoin is $100,000.
• The chart shows the support zone for bitcoin.
• The chart shows that bitcoin broke out on Trump’s election.  Trump has said he wants to be the crypto president.  The Arora Report also gave a signal on Trump’s election to buy bitcoin via ETF IBIT.  The trade is nicely profitable.  Bitcoin is also in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.
• Money is flowing out of gold and other commodities, such as oil, and into cryptos.  For the first time iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has become bigger than iShares Gold Trust (IAU).  On Trump’s election, a record $1.4B money inflow took place in IBIT.
• When looking at gold and bitcoin, investors need to understand that the gold market is not being manipulated, while bitcoin can easily be manipulated.  Anytime an asset can be easily manipulated, it can be driven higher than you would think. Prudent investors who want to understand and make money in bitcoin may consider listening to the three part bitcoin series titled “Whales Secrets You Need To Know: Capturing Bitcoin Profits.”
• Other crypto tokens are also moving. Dogecoin, created as a joke, has gone up 40% since Friday.  The meme crowd is going all in on smaller coins.
• Sentiment has reached the extreme zone.  When sentiment reaches extreme positive, it is traditionally a sell signal.  However, sentiment is not a precise timing signal.  Also, this time is different because of the momentum from Trump’s election.  The Arora Report’s sentiment indicator is a 360 degree view and is very comprehensive.  Investors looking for a short cut may at this time look at bitcoin as an indication of sentiment.
• Investors need to understand that this is as pure of a momentum market as it gets.  Momentum is great as long as it is going up.  However, a break in momentum can cause major losses, especially in popular stocks.  Those who want next level information may consider listening to the podcast that is in post production titled “Opportunities From Trump Hopium: Eight Insights.”  The podcast will be available in Arora Ambassador Club.
• Based on the weekend pump, there is aggressive buying in stocks by retail investors in the early trade.  Buying is extremely aggressive in Trump stocks, such as Tesla (TSLA). TSLA stock is up over 6% in the premarket, after moving up 8.2% on Friday.  Tesla CEO Elon Musk is expected to be the most influential person in Trump’s administration, but without an official appointment.
• Trump’s election is impacting markets across the globe.  Please see below for examples.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

China

There is disappointment in the markets about China’s stimulus.

China’s trade surplus is set to hit a record of almost $1T.  Trump is likely to focus on this record. 

India

The Reserve Bank of India is likely to let the Indian currency rupee weaken to compete with the Chinese yuan after Trump’s election.

Japan

The Bank of Japan failed to bolster the yen after Trump’s election.  The yen has weakened.

Europe

There are reports that Trump and Putin have spoken in a bid to settle the Ukraine war.  Russia is denying the report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

Money is flowing out of gold and into cryptos. 

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Money is flowing out of oil and into cryptos.  

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Please see above.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6043 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131 and 6256: support levels are 6017, 5926, and 5748.

DJIA futures are up 166 points.

Gold futures are at $2644, silver futures are at $30.85, and oil futures are at $68.49.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.