WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WILL A STRONG DECEMBER FOLLOW THE SECOND BEST NOVEMBER FOR STOCKS SINCE THE 1980S?

Twitter
LinkedIn
Facebook

By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

IMPORTANT POWELL SPEECH AHEAD, MARKET MECHANICS DROVE SECOND BEST NOVEMBER FOR STOCKS SINCE 1980S

December 1, 2023

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Powell Speech Ahead

Please click here for a chart of 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that bonds have made an aggressive move from the lows.
  • The chart shows the upward sloping trendline indicating the steadiness of the move up.
  • The chart shows that bonds have now reached the lower resistance zone.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should watch if bonds break above the lower resistance zone.  If they do, it will be a trigger for another leg up in the stock market.
  • The stock market has just posted the second best November since the 1980s.
  • The up move in the stock market was triggered by rising bonds as shown on the chart, but the move was amplified by market mechanics.
  • Market mechanics are very powerful.  About two thirds of the up move in November is due to market mechanics.  The Arora Report call of market mechanics being to the upside driving the market substantially higher that was made at the beginning of the move has proven spot on.  
  • All investors should consider taking time to learn about market mechanics.  Learning about market mechanics will help you extract significantly more money out of the markets.  Due to their high value, Wall Street professionals keep market mechanics close to their chest.  The best way to get access to Wall Street secrets is to listen to the podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club.  Arora Ambassador Club has several podcasts on market mechanics and more will be coming.
  • Powell is speaking in Atlanta today.  Prudent investors should watch to see if Powell pushes back on the stock market’s aggressive projections of rate cuts.  If Powell endorses the stock market’s projections, expect a rip roaring rally.  If Powell strongly contradicts Wall Street’s projections, expect a pullback.
  • ISM Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am. This data has the potential to move the stock market.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Blind Money And Month End Buying

This morning, there are crosscurrents between month end buying and front running blind money.

  • There was aggressive month end buying at the close yesterday.
  • Some of that is being given back this morning.  This is negative.
  • On the positive side, Wall Street is front running blind money.  Wall Street hopes to buy stocks now and sell them to blind money at higher prices.  Blind money is the money that blindly flows into the stock market on the first two days of the month without any analysis and irrespective of market conditions.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

There is significant confusion about what OPEC+ is doing.

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound with a positive bias.  Crypto bulls are hoping that whales will take advantage of low liquidity over the weekend and drive bitcoin above $40,000.  A move above $40,000 will suck in more retail investors.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2055, silver futures are at $25.58, and oil futures are at $76.01.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4567  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are down 37 points.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

See also  WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: PRUDENT INVESTORS STAY ALERT, AI FRENZY TAKES CONTROL OF THE STOCK MARKET

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

 

FED’S FAVORITE INFLATION GAUGE DISAPPOINTS BOTH STOCK MARKET BULLS AND BEARS

November 30, 2023

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

PCE

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that the stock market is consolidating right below the mini resistance zone.
  • The RSI pattern on the chart shows that the stock market can go either way.
  • The stock market is up this morning due to positive earnings from Salesforce (CRM).  Salesforce is in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).  Buying is also coming in due to strong earnings from Snowflake (SNOW) and Synopsys (SNPS).  All three companies are benefiting from AI. 
  • The just released economic data shows that consumer spending is finally beginning to taper from excessive levels relative to incomes.  Here are the details:
    • Personal spending came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.
    • Personal income came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.
  • The latest data on the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge PCE has disappointed both bulls and bears.  Bears were pinning their hopes that PCE would be worse than expected and thereby cause a big drop in the stock market.  Bulls were pinning their hopes on PCE triggering another leg of the stock market rally.  PCE came inline with expectations, a scenario that neither bulls nor bears had expected.  Here are the details:
    • Headline PCE came at 0.0% vs. 0.1% consensus.
    • Core PCE came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.
  • Weekly Initial Claims came at 218K vs. 215K consensus.  This indicates that the jobs picture is staying very strong.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Europe

Eurozone inflation has fallen more than expected.  Flash CPI came at 2.4% year-over-year vs. 2.7% consensus.  Flash Core CPI came at 3.6% year-over-year vs. 3.9% consensus.

China

PMIs are leading indicators.  Leading indicators carry heavy weight in our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.  In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.  Please click here to see how this is achieved.  One of the reasons behind The Arora Report’s unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model.  Most models on Wall Street are static.  They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.

China’s Manufacturing PMI came at 49.4 vs. 49.7 consensus. Non-manufacturing PMI came at 50.2 vs. 51.1 consensus.  These numbers indicate that the Chinese economy is weakening.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The virtual OPEC+ meeting is taking place.

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2055, silver futures are at $25.52, and oil futures are at $78.69.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4567 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are up 181 points.

 

GOLD AT AN INFLECTION POINT – IGNORE PERMABULLS AND CRYPTO BROS, STOCK BULLS DISBELIEVE NEW DATA

November 29, 2023

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Inflection Point

Please click here for a chart of gold ETF (GLD).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that gold has staged a strong rally.
  • The chart shows Arora signals including the famous signal to sell half of the gold position on the exact day gold topped in 2011.  Long time members of The Arora Report have made a fortune from our gold and silver calls.
  • Perma gold bulls, also known as gold bugs, are coming out of the woodwork proclaiming that this is it for the big gold move they have been waiting for.
  • Prudent investors should consider ignoring perma gold bulls.  Perma gold bulls tend to strongly believe in conspiracy theories of central banks colluding with large commercial banks to keep gold and silver low.  Many times the prominent perma gold bulls have a vested interest because they are in the business of selling gold and silver to the masses.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, here are the key data points investors should focus on:
    • Gold has traced a 10 year cup as shown on the chart.
    • Now, gold is in the process of tracing a multi-year handle.
    • Cup and handle patterns tend to break to the upside.
    • When an upside break occurs from a long pattern, it can be extremely powerful, leading to large gains.
    • As shown on the chart, gold is now in the resistance zone.
    • The chart shows that the prior three attempts to break out of this resistance zone failed.  Will the fourth time be a charm?
    • Thank you for your requests for a new podcast on gold.  The evidence from our decades of experience with thousands of investors is clear.  Those who take time in advance to prepare tend to generate significantly higher profits than those who do not.  We will start work on the podcast to help members prepare in case there is a breakout.  The podcast will be in Arora Ambassador Club.
  • Crypto bros are predicting that this gold up move will fail.  Crypto bros have a strong interest in promoting gold as antiquated, and they want to sell the masses on the idea that crypto is the new gold.
  • You can access world famous Arora ratings on gold and silver from the top menu.  These ratings are used by private investors, hedge funds, bullion dealers, and major jewelers.  At times, Arora gold calls have impacted gold prices.  Click here to see an article in Business Standard, the Wall Street Journal of India, for the article “Arora Report Creates Ripples In Bullion Market.”
  • The gold ETF GLD buy zone is in the ZYX Allocation Core Model Portfolio. The buy zones for silver ETF SLV and gold miner NEM are in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. NEM was the best performing stock in the S&P 500 yesterday.
  • In the stock and bond markets, permabulls are disbelieving the new data just released.  The new data is the GDP – Second Estimate.  GDP came at 5.2% vs. 4.9% consensus.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, as hard as they may try, here is a question that permabulls are unable to answer.  Why is the Fed going to cut rates with the economy growing at 5.2%?  Permabulls are convinced of a Fed rate cut in Q1 of 2024.  With the economy growing at 5.2%, there is no logical reason for the Fed to cut rates.  The only reason for the Fed to cut rates will be if the economy quickly falls off the cliff.
  • Prudent investors need to keep in mind that permabulls do not need to do a 360 degree analysis because their job is to push the stock market as high as they can.  Before you send us emails, the long standing Arora Report position is to ignore both permabulls and permabears.  Instead, prudent investors should connect the data points.
  • The Fed’s Beige Book will be released at 2pm ET.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.
See also  STOCKS IN CHINA FLYING, LIFTING SENTIMENT IN STOCK MARKETS ACROSS THE GLOBE, AI AND WEIGHT LOSS DRUGS GET HOTTER

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is ***  stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** gold in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

OPEC+ meeting is ahead.

API crude inventories came at a draw of 0.817M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 2M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound with a positive bias.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2061, silver futures are at $25.40, and oil futures are at $77.54.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4584 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are up 98 points.

 

STOCK MARKET BULLS EXCITED BUT NOT ASKING THE ALL IMPORTANT ‘PAY LATER’ QUESTION

November 28, 2023

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Investors Excited

Please click here for a chart of SPDR S&P retail ETF (XRT).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that the retail stocks have been rallying on strong consumer buying.  Please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule for details of the strong  Black Friday sales.  Earlier, Adobe had increased its estimate of online Cyber Monday sales to $12.2B from the prior $12B.  Now, the estimate has risen to $12.4B.
  • Investors are excited and believe that the retail ETF XRT is heading towards the resistance zone shown on the chart.
  • Prudent investors should note that there is RSI divergence developing as shown on the chart.  In plain English, this means that RSI is now lower even though the price has gone higher.  The traditional interpretation is negative for retail stocks.  This flies in the face of bullish expectations from investors.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, after maxing out their credit cards, consumers are increasingly using ‘buy now pay later.’  As investors are excited about ‘buy now,’ they are not asking the ‘pay later’ question.  When the bills come due early next year, will the consumer be able to pay them while continuing to splurge?
  • Two important data points are ahead this week.
    • PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, will be released on Thursday at 8:30am ET.
    • Powell is speaking in Atlanta on Friday.
  • Consumer confidence will be released today at 10am ET and may be market moving.
  • This morning, the stock market rally is pausing after S&P 500 rallied 8.5% this month.  This is the fourth biggest monthly rally over the last 10 years.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG) and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is ***stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** gold in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** oil in the early trade.

See also  HOTTER PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, THE POWER OF ‘PICKS AND SHOVELS’ PLAY

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2022, silver futures are at $24.79, and oil futures are at $75.57.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4553 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are down 14 points.

 

RECORD BLACK FRIDAY SPLURGE BUT DATA FROM CHINA TEMPERS STOCK MARKET BULLISHNESS

November 27, 2023

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Record Black Friday

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that the stock market is levitating right under the mini resistance zone.
  • If the stock market breaks above the mini resistance zone, the next target is the resistance zone shown on the chart.
  • The consensus among permabulls is that in December the stock market will rocket to the resistance zone shown on the chart.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, there is a reasonable probability that permabulls will be right, but it will depend upon the new data that is ahead.
  • Prudent investors should consider being neither permabulls nor permabears but depending on the data.
  • Supporting permabulls’ case is that consumers splurged on Black Friday.  According to Adobe Analytics, consumers spent a record $9.8B online on Black Friday.  This is 7.5% higher than last year.
  • Overall, Black Friday sales rose 2.5% year-over-year according to Mastercard.
  • How are consumers paying for the splurge?  In addition to maxing out their credit cards, consumers are extensively using buy now pay later.
  • Foot traffic in retail stores rose by 2.1% year-over-year.
  • Various reports estimate foot traffic in stores rising by 2% – 5% year-over-year.
  • The expectations are for Cyber Monday to generate about $12B of sales online.  This estimate is over 5% higher compared to last year.
  • Investors are rushing to buy stocks of Affirm (AFRM) and Shopify (SHOP).  Affirm is a large provider of buy now pay later services.  Shopify software runs a large number of e-commerce websites.
  • Investor enthusiasm over the consumer borrowing more and spending record amounts is being tempered in the early trade by data from China.
  • October Industrial Profits in China fell by 7.8% year-to-date.  Initially, U.S. stock futures were lower on the data from China, but then buying came in on enthusiasm about consumers’ splurge.
  • Liquidity in the stock market is low.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG) and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

Gold is above the psychologically important level of $2000.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

There appear to be several disagreements among OPEC+ members.  This is pushing oil lower.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  Whichever way the market starts moving, Wall Street machines will easily push it farther that way as liquidity is low.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2011, silver futures are at $24.83, and oil futures are at $74.93.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4562  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are down 61 points.

 

To take a free 30-day trial to paid services to gain access to more opportunities, please click here.

Markets can generate substantial wealth for knowledgeable investors. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES,
TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

Please click here to take advantage of a FREE 30 day trial.

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

Subscribe to 'Generate Wealth'

Free Forever

More To Explore

30 Day Free Trial

Cancel within 30 days and you owe nothing

When you take a FREE 30 day trial, you get access to powerful techniques used by billionaires and hedge funds to grow richer. You can continue to use these powerful techniques to grow richer even if you cancel your subscription. You come out ahead by subscribing no matter how you look at it.

A fortune is to be made from AI stocks.
Get the list of 18 AI stocks to grab your share of the profits — no cost to you.

A fortune is to be made from AI stocks.

Get the list of 18 AI stocks to grab your share of the profits.

AI is a $1 Trillion Market

Making A Fortune
In Artificial Intelligence

Golden Age of Artificial Intelligence