WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: MANY INVESTORS WHIPSAWED AND CONFUSED AS MARKET MECHANICS DRIVE THE STOCK MARKET

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

MOTHER OF ALL REPORTS GOES AGAINST STOCK MARKET BULLS

December 8, 2023

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Jobs Report

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that the stock market is consolidating below the mini resistance zone.
  • RSI on the chart shows that the stock market can go either way.
  • Stock market bulls had pinned their hopes on this morning’s jobs report, also known as the mother of all reports, to break above the mini resistance zone.
  • Stock market bulls were hoping for a weak report, reasoning that a weak report could force the Fed to cut interest rates.
  • Stock market bulls are pricing in five rate cuts in 2024.
  • Instead of a weak report, the jobs report came hotter than expected.  Here are the details:
    • Non-farm payrolls came at 199K vs. 175K consensus.
    • Non-farm private payrolls came at 150K vs. 155K consensus.
    • Unemployment rate came at 3.7% vs. 3.9% consensus.
    • Average work week came at 34.4 vs. 34.3 consensus.
    • Average hourly earnings came at 0.4% vs. 0.2% consensus.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, the most important statistic here is the drop in the unemployment rate.  Stock market bulls were hoping for an increase in the unemployment rate.  
  • The jobs report throws cold water on bulls’ thesis of five rate cuts next year.
  • First, stock and bond futures dipped on the jobs report, and the dollar became stronger.
  • Second, momo gurus quickly moved to contain the damage by spreading a three part narrative.
    • This jobs report will be revised lower later on.  In The Arora Report analysis, this is pure conjecture as nobody really knows.
    • Future jobs reports will be weaker.  Again, in The Arora Report analysis, this is conjecture as nobody really knows.
    • Ignore the jobs report and buy stocks because of artificial intelligence.
  • So far, momo gurus’ narrative has succeeded.  As of this writing, stock futures have regained all of their losses.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, the most important factor driving the stock market is not any data but the market mechanics of year end chase, positioning, and 0DTE options.  Market mechanics are powerful.  About two thirds of the rally in the stock market this year is due to market mechanics.  Due to their high value, Wall Street professionals keep knowledge of market mechanics close to the chest.  You can gain a big edge by learning about market mechanics.  The easiest way to learn market mechanics is to listen to the podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30-day free trial)  stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** the rally from the lows in the early trade.

Gold

Gold futures first fell on the jobs report, but the momo crowd *** the dip.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** oil in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is levitating about $43,000.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2038, silver futures are at $23.98, and oil futures are at $71.05.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4584 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are down 63 points.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long-term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

 

CHANGE IN YIELD CONTROL IN JAPAN WILL IMPACT U.S. STOCK MARKET, DIMON WANTS TO SHUT DOWN CRYPTO

December 7, 2023

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Yield Control

Please click here for a chart of Japanese Yen Trust (FXY).

Note the following:

  • We have been sharing with you that what the Bank of Japan (BOJ) does will have a major impact on the U.S. stock and bond markets.
  • The chart shows that the downward trendline has now been decisively broken.  The downward trendline has been in place because the yen has been artificially suppressed by BOJ.
  • The chart shows that an upward trendline is now in place.
  • The chart shows a break away move in yen overnight on speculation that BOJ is about to abandon yield control.  The speculation was triggered by BOJ Governor Ueda indicating that the policy would “become even more challenging from the year end and heading into the next year.”
  • In The Arora Report analysis, now there is a 40% probability of a significant change in BOJ policy.
  • The up move shown on the chart is equivalent to the yen rising by about 1.5% against the dollar.  This is the biggest one day move since January.  For a currency, a 1.5% move is a huge move.
  • On the yen move, stocks in Asia fell first, which then caused a downdraft in Europe.  Without the yen move, there would have been a rip roaring rally in the U.S. stock market today.  The yen move is suppressing the rally attempt.
  • Since the momo crowd is in control and the momo crowd does not do any analysis, the momo crowd is oblivious to the yen move and is aggressively buying the slight dip in stocks in the early trade.
  • As we have been sharing with you, a significant amount of money is borrowed in yen and invested in U.S. stock and bond markets.  This strategy becomes less attractive as the yen moves higher and rates in Japan go higher.
  • In an important development, J.P. Morgan (JPM) CEO told Congress that he would shut down crypto if he had the power to do so.  It is back to the future in bitcoin.  Please read the bitcoin section below.  
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.
See also  RETAIL SALES SHOCKER, STOCK MARKET PROVIDING OPPORTUNITIES BEYOND MAGNIFICENT SEVEN AND AI

Jobless Claims

Initial claims came at 220K vs. 223K consensus.  In The Arora Report analysis, this leading indicator runs counter to the consensus in the stock market of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed next year.  This data makes tomorrow’s jobs report even more important.

Europe

We previously shared with you that now six rate cuts are expected in Europe next year.  Euro area GDP came at -0.1% vs. 0.0% consensus.  This new data supports rate cuts in Europe.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30-day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The yen move is bringing buying into gold.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The yen move is bringing buying into oil.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** oil in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

In cryptos, it is back to the future again.  Yesterday, there were several anecdotal reports of retail investors prematuring cashing in CDs to buy bitcoin at $45,000 as well as other cryptos.  This is prompted by crypto promoters pushing the narrative that bitcoin would move straight to $50,000 and to $100,000 by the year end.  This morning, there is slight disappointment on bitcoin pulling back to $43,252.  

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2056, silver futures are at $24.32, and oil futures are at $70.39.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4568 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are down 5 points.

 

INVESTORS ANTICIPATE SIX RATE CUTS IN EUROPE, ADP DATA SUPPORTS GOLDILOCKS, UNIT LABOR COSTS FALL

December 6, 2023

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Goldilocks

Please click here for a chart of Germany’s DAX futures (DAX_F).

Note the following:

  • Germany is the economic engine of Europe.
  • The chart shows a very strong stock rally in Germany.
  • RSI on the chart shows that after the strong rally, stocks have become overbought.
  • The chart shows that technical resistance is ahead.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, consensus is building among investors that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates six times by a quarter point each in 2024.  
  • In The Arora Report analysis, there is a high probability of ECB beginning rate cuts before the Fed.  
  • The newly released ADP data supports a Goldilocks economy.  ADP is the largest payroll processor in the country and uses its data to give an advanced glimpse of the jobs picture ahead of the official jobs report that will be released on Friday at 8:30am ET.
    • ADP employment change came at 103K vs. 127K consensus.
  • There is more good news for the stock market but not so much for working people.
    • Q3 Unit Labor Costs-Rev. came at -1.2% vs. -0.8% consensus. Unit labor costs going down is a big positive for the stock market.  
  • Productivity in the U.S. has taken a remarkable jump.
    • Q3 Productivity-Rev. came at 5.2% vs. 4.8% consensus.
  • The increase in productivity and the decline in unit labor costs are great news for the U.S. as a country and for the stock market.  Expect gurus to spin this data as increased productivity due to artificial intelligence.  Don’t fall for it.  Artificial intelligence has not yet become pervasive in the U.S. economy.  However, artificial intelligence will become pervasive over the coming seven years, and it will further boost productivity.  A fortune is to be made over the next seven years in artificial intelligence.  Our long experience with thousands of investors has shown that those with more knowledge and preparation perform significantly better than those with less knowledge, even with the same signals.  A large number of our members recognized this and for years were requesting us to help in a manner that is easy and not too time consuming.  This is the reason we started Arora Ambassador Club, to help our members.  Arora Ambassador Club has now been operating for two years and has received rave reviews.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.
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For The First Time Ever

We have been sharing with you that India represents one of the best large economy opportunities outside the U.S. for long-term investors.  We recently shared with you the recent election results and our analysis that it was very positive.  Now, for the first time ever, the Indian stock market’s total capitalization has hit $4 trillion.

ZYX Emerging has covered India for 16 years in its Core Model Portfolio.  In addition to the Core Model Portfolio, ZYX Emerging also has a separate portfolio of specialty ETFs.  One of the specialty ETFs representing small caps in India (SMIN) is up 31.2% year to date.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30-day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** gold in the early trade.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 0.594M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 2.267M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) has crossed $44,000 as of this writing.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2047, silver futures are at $24.55, and oil futures are at $71.02.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4595 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are up 103 points.

 

MAG SEVEN SEE PROFIT TAKING, MOODY’S DOWNGRADES CHINA CREDIT OUTLOOK

December 5, 2023

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

China Credit Outlook

Please click here for a chart of China ETF ASHR.

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that at a time when the U.S. stock market has been rising, the Chinese stock market has been declining.
  • RSI on the chart shows that the Chinese market is oversold.
  • Many strategists are making calls to buy China as it is an opportunity to buy low.  ZYX Emerging has covered China for 16 years continuously.  The Arora Report ratings on China are currently suspended, but an opportunity to buy China may be near.  Please stay tuned to the ZYX Emerging Real Time Feed by The Arora Report.
  • Moody’s is cutting China’s credit outlook to negative.  This indicates that the risk of default by China has increased.  Moody’s call has been triggered by the property sector crisis and local government debt.  The largest property developer in China, Evergrande, took more than $300B, mostly from individuals, to buy properties but never built them.  Evergrande is close to liquidation.
  • The magnificent seven stocks are seeing slight profit taking.  The magnificent seven stocks are Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).  What happens to the magnificent seven stocks is very important for the following reasons:
    • S&P 500 is up 19% this year.  Excluding the magnificent seven stocks, it is up only 9%.
    • The magnificent seven stocks are very expensive.  They trade at an average forward PE of 32.  
    • 44% of stocks in S&P 500 have negative returns for the year.  
  • Important economic data is ahead.  Most important are the following;
    • JOLTS job report will be released at 10am ET.
    • ISM Services PMI will be released at 10am ET.
  • Of note is earnings from J.M. Smuckers (SJM), the producer of JIF peanut butter and Foldgers coffee.  Revenues rose 7% year-over-year, including a 4% increase in volume and 3% increase in price.  This indicates that consumers are still willing to pay higher prices.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is continuing to hold its gains as many bitcoin promoters are confidently promoting $100,000 bitcoin by the year end.  Keep in mind that these promoters have an agenda and have been consistently wrong in the past.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2047, silver futures are at $24.90, and oil futures are at $72.91.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4561 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are down 130 points.

 

KEYS TO MAKING MONEY IN BITCOIN, WHALES PUSH PAST KEY MILESTONE, OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA

December 4, 2023

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Making Money In Bitcoin

Please click here for a chart of bitcoin (BTC.USD).

Note the following:

  • On Friday when bitcoin was trading around $38,000, we wrote:

Crypto bulls are hoping that whales will take advantage of low liquidity over the weekend and drive bitcoin above $40,000.  A move above $40,000 will suck in more retail investors.

  • The Arora Report writing from Friday has now proven prescient.  Whales took advantage of the low liquidity over the weekend to push bitcoin over $40,000.  When bitcoin crossed $40,000, retail investors jumped in.  Whales knew from the past behavior of retail investors that they would jump in after bitcoin crossed $40,000.  This is exactly what happened.  Retail investors jumped in, driving bitcoin to $42,000.
  • The chart shows when speculation about spot bitcoin ETF started.  This was a trigger for this leg of the up move in bitcoin.
  • The chart shows the first resistance zone.
  • Now that whales have pushed bitcoin over $40,000, bitcoin promoters are pushing as hard as they can to bring in more retail investors to move bitcoin to the first resistance zone.  Promoters’ pitch to retail investors is that there are trillions of dollars of institutional money waiting to invest in bitcoin.  They give this as the reason for retail investors to aggressively buy now.
  • Prudent investors need to understand that whales and bitcoin promoters have an agenda.  That agenda may not be in your best interest.
  • Bitcoin halving is coming early next year and that will also push bitcoin higher.
  • While bitcoin is moving higher, there are outflows from bitcoin exchanges worth more than $1B.  On the surface, this seems negative, but this is a favorite technique of the whales to push bitcoin higher.  Outflows from exchanges are promoted by bitcoin promoters as a commitment from investors to hold bitcoin for the long term.
  • Historically, outflows from exchanges have led to a rise in bitcoin.
  • There are three keys to making money in bitcoin:
    • Understand the behavior of whales
    • Understand that bitcoin has none of the benefits on a large scale that promoters have fed to investors
    • If a spot bitcoin is approved, it will lessen the ability of whales to run it up because there will be more liquidity.  
  • To help those who own bitcoin and those who want to make serious money in bitcoin, it is important to understand the three keys given above in-depth.  Thank you for all of your requests for a series of podcasts on bitcoin to help you understand the true nature of bitcoin.  We are starting work on a series of podcasts on bitcoin.  These podcasts will give you insights not available anywhere else.  These podcasts will be in Arora Ambassador Club.
  • This morning, money is moving out of the stock market into bitcoin and gold.
  • The stock market is very overbought and is vulnerable to a pullback at this time.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.
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Opportunity In India

Prime Minister Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) just had stunning victories in three states in the Hindi heartland.  These victories remove some of the overhang on the Indian stock market from the upcoming general election.

As a result of these stunning victories, foreign money is likely to flow into India at a rapid pace.  This presents an opportunity in India for investors.  Most investors focus on ETF INDA (INDA) to invest in India.  However, that is not the best ETF to invest in India.  There are two India ETFs that are significantly better than INDA.  India has been continuously covered for 16 years by ZYX Emerging.  We will be shortly updating the short term, medium term, and long term rating on India and giving a trade around position in ZYX Emerging.

Layoffs

Layoffs among large corporations continue.  Spotify (SPOT) is laying off 17% of its workforce.  This is about 1500 people.  This is also the third round of layoffs.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** gold in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing aggressive buying by retail investors after whales ran it up over $40,000.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2072, silver futures are at $25.49, and oil futures are at $73.50.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4572 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4600, 4713, and 4770: support levels are 4460, 4400, and 4318.

DJIA futures are down 180 points.

 

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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