By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report. 

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

INTEL OUTPERFORMS NVIDIA BY 24%, AI FRENZY IN CHINA, BUYING ON TARIFFS AND RETAIL SALES

Feb 14, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Reciprocal Tariffs

Please click here for a chart comparing Intel stock (INTC) and Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

• At the beginning of the year, INTC stock was left for dead.  No one wanted it. In contrast, everyone loved Nvidia and wanted to buy NVDA stock.
• The chart shows that so far in 2025 INTC stock has outperformed NVDA stock by 24.29%.
• The chart illustrates the power of diversification by strategies.  To the best of our knowledge, The Arora Report is the only popular, credible resource that diversifies by strategies.  We use over 50 different strategies.
• The easiest way to diversify by strategy is to follow the Model Portfolios and signals in The Arora Report.
• President Trump had previously announced that he would impose reciprocal tariffs yesterday.  Instead of announcing reciprocal tariffs, Trump announced that the U.S. will study reciprocal tariffs. Trump gave April as the timetable to impose reciprocal tariffs.  Investors liked the shift in the timeline and aggressively bought stocks on the news.
• Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.  Retail sales came lower than expected.  Here is the latest retail sales data.
  • Headline retail sales came at -0.9% vs. 0.0% consensus.
  • Retail sales ex-auto came at -0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.
• Weaker retail sales caused yields to fall and started a bond rally.
• Falling yields brought in more buying into the stock market.
• Buying in the stock market is being offset as some investors take profits on the market reaching the top band of the resistance zone.
• Remember today is a Friday, and short squeezes tend to take place on Fridays.  If a short squeeze starts, it can take the stock market to a new high.
• The latest earnings are mixed.  DraftKings (DKNG) and Airbnb (ABNB) reported earnings better than whisper numbers.  Applied Materials (AMAT), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Coinbase (COIN), and Moderna (MRNA) reported earnings less than whisper numbers.  This again highlights the need for proper diversification.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

China

Chinese AI stocks are reaching a three year high on continuing AI frenzy.  Of interest are China internet ETF (KWEB), China technology ETF (CQQQ), and Alibaba (BABA). The trigger for the latest rally was Apple (AAPL) entering a partnership with BABA to provide AI for iPhones in China.  A signal was given on BABA in ZYX Buy on the Apple news.  The position is nicely profitable.  A new signal on BABA is coming.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla (TSLA) and NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and AAPL.

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6134  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6256, 6500, and 6700: support levels are 6017, 5926, and 5748.

DJIA futures are down 51 points.

Gold futures are at $2938, silver futures are at $33.84, and oil futures are at $71.72.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

HOTTER PPI FOLLOWS HOTTER CPI, BUT MOMO CROWD IGNORING INFLATION ON TRUMP HOPIUM

Feb 13, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Hotter PPI

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dip was aggressively bought yesterday.
• The chart shows that the stock market is now back at the low band of the micro resistance zone.
• Based on historical precedence, the stock market should have fallen over 1000 DJIA points yesterday on hotter CPI data. The momo crowd extremely aggressively bought the dip, resulting in the stock market closing down only 225 DJIA points.
• A new narrative from momo gurus has taken hold that inflation no longer matters because of their complete faith in President Trump’s leadership.
• The stock market also completely ignored Powell’s response to higher CPI data.  Powell said:
  • Policy will remain restrictive.
  • Progress is being made on inflation, but it is not yet at the goal.
• Last night, stock market futures ran even higher on aggressive momo buying.  In the early trade, the stock market gave up gains in stock futures prior to the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), as many investors took advantage of the strength to sell on concerns that Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs today.
• Inflation at the producer level came hotter than expected.  Here are the details:
  • Headline PPI came at 0.4% vs. 0.2% consensus.
  • Core PPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Of utmost importance to prudent investors is that the PPI data for prior months has been significantly revised upwards. 
• The momo crowd initially extremely aggressively bought stocks on hotter PPI.  The buying was met by selling from investors who took notice of the prior revisions to the upside.  The momo crowd bought the dip as other investors sold.
• A battle royale is shaping up between investors who are concerned about inflation and investors who believe inflation is not of consequence anymore because of President Trump’s leadership.
• In The Arora Report analysis, there is merit to President Trump’s leadership in pro-growth policies, reducing waste and fraud in the government, deregulation, tax cuts and tariffs.  Having said that, it is a grave mistake to ignore inflation.  
• These crosscurrents have already been included in the computation of the protection band.  Please see the “Protection Band And What To Do Now” section below.
• Back in September 2024, when the Fed cut interest rates by 50 bps, we shared with you the contrary Arora call that the Fed was making a policy mistake.  The CPI and PPI data, especially the prior month revisions, now confirm that the Fed made a mistake in September.
• The Arora Report has made dozens of contrary calls over decades regarding the Fed.  One hundred percent of the prior calls have proven correct.  So far, the call about the September 2024 rate cuts has proven spot on.  Not only has the subsequent inflation data shown that the Fed made a mistake, but the yield on the 10- year bond has risen about 100 bps since the Fed’s 50 bps rate cut.
• Initial jobless claims came at 213K vs. 217K consensus.
• Retail sales will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
• Prudent investors need to be aware that President Trump is threatening to impose reciprocal tariffs later today.  There is a press conference scheduled for 1pm ET.  Consider staying alert.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Layoffs

More layoffs are coming in tech.

In important news, oil giant Chevron (CVX) will cut 20% of its workforce.

Seventy-five thousand federal workers have opted into Trump’s deferred resignation program.

Ultimately, these layoffs will start having an effect on the economy.

Europe

European stocks are seeing buying after Trump saying he is initiating talks with Russia’s Putin to end the Ukraine war.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Trump spoke to Putin about ending the Ukraine war.  Russia is a major oil producer, but the supply of Russia oil has been constrained due to U.S. sanctions.  The thinking is that Trump will be Russia friendly, resulting in more Russian oil on the world market.  As a result, oil is falling. 

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6083 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131, 6256, and 6500: support levels are 6017, 5926, and 5748

DJIA futures are up 103 points.

Gold futures are at $2938, silver futures are at $32.56, and oil futures are at $70.44.

HOT CPI PRIOR TO TRUMP TARIFFS – POWELL NOT COMING TO THE STOCK MARKET’S RESCUE

Feb 12, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Hotter Inflation

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that the stock market was in the micro resistance zone prior to the release of inflation data.
• The chart shows that as of this writing after the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data the stock market fell below the low band of the micro resistance zone.
• The chart shows that the stock market has made several attempts to break above the micro resistance zone over a period of time.  Prudent investors need to note that in spite of extreme bullishness and aggressive buying by the momo crowd, so far, the stock market has failed to break above the micro resistance zone.  This indicates that the momo crowd’s aggressive buying is meeting selling from other investors.  
• CPI came hotter than expected.  Here are the details:
  • Headline CPI came at 0.5% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Core CPI came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.
• As a member of The Arora Report, hotter inflation is not a surprise to you.  We have been sharing our analysis with you for a while that inflation is likely to be stickier than the Fed and stock market believe.  The Arora Report call has been spot on so far.  The call has kept you ahead of the curve.
• Today, Powell will continue his testimony before Congress.  Here are the key points from his testimony yesterday:
  • The Fed is not in a rush to make changes because the economy is “in a pretty good place.”
  • If inflation does not improve and the economy is solid, the Fed will hold.
  • If inflation quickly declines or there is surprise weakness in the labor market , the Fed will cut interest rates.
  • The neutral rate has increased compared to pre-pandemic.
  • The reason longer term rates are high is “not particularly closely related to Fed policy.” Investor concerns of inflation risks and rising budget deficits could keep longer term rates at higher levels.
• The stock market has gotten used to Powell coming to its rescue.  In The Arora Report analysis, this time, Powell is unlikely to come to the stock market’s rescue unless Trump twists Powell’s arm and Powell loses his spine.  Investors need to remember that in December 2018, Powell was doing the right thing by raising interest rates, and the stock market fell because the stock market was used to Powell coming to its rescue but that did not happen. Then, Trump twisted Powell’s arm.  Powell lost his spine and cut interest rates; the stock market had a rip roaring rally.  Could a repeat of 2018 – 2019 happen again?   Trump is already on the record saying that interest rates should be lower.  This dynamic is taken into account in the protection band.  Please see the”Protection Band And What To Do Now” section below. 
• The consensus in the stock market is that Trump’s tariffs will raise inflation.  Inflation is already higher than consensus.  Prudent investors should note that The Arora Report call is more nuanced.  The Arora Report call is that tariffs can be implemented in a way that, with the exception of a one time increase in inflation, can have a beneficial impact on the U.S. economy and stock market.  Of course, given Trump’s unpredictability, there is no way to know how Trump will implement tariffs.  This uncertainty is also taken into account in the protection band.  
• As we have been sharing with you, earnings are the single largest determinant of the stock market in the long term.  So far, there is a positive and a negative in earnings.  
  • On the positive side, earnings could rise to 12.5% vs. 7.3% expected prior to the start of earnings season.  This is significantly above the average of 5.5% since 2022.  
  • On the negative side, only 44% of S&P 500 companies beat operating margin estimates.  This is the lowest number since 2022. 
  • The positive and negative of earnings is also taken into account in the protection band.  
• Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial jobless claims will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 9.043M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 2.8M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling on CPI data.  The Arora Report call that bitcoin is not a hedge but a speculative asset continues to be spot on.  Note that The Arora Report call is contrary to what bitcoin bulls want investors to believe.  

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6039 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131, 6256, and 6500: support levels are 6017, 5926, and 5748.

DJIA futures are down 436 points.

Gold futures are at $2891, silver futures are at $31.94, and oil futures are at $72.42.

STOCKS RUNNING UP ON MOMO BUYING AND SHORT SQUEEZES WITH ONLY AIR UNDERNEATH, POWELL TESTIMONY

Feb 11, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Beware Of Air 

Please click here for a chart of Semtech stock (SMTC).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of SMTC is being used to illustrate the point.
• Many stocks are running up on the momo crowd buying, highly flawed analysis, and short squeezes with only air underneath the stocks.
• Aggressive momo crowd buying on flawed analysis is levitating many stocks to a level completely divorced from reality.  Short sellers see this as an opportunity to short the stocks.  The momo crowd continues to buy these stocks.  Short sellers are forced to buy to cover, leading to upward pressure.  Short squeezes result in technical breakouts; investors who invest mostly with technical analysis then jump in.  The momo crowd believes that in their genius they have picked stocks that are running up, so they buy more.  The cycle repeats itself again and again, driving many stocks higher and higher.
• When stocks run up in the above described manner, there is only air below them.
• The chart of SMTC illustrates the point.  Semtech is a provider of analog and mixed-signal semiconductors and communication solutions.
• The chart shows when SMTC stock ran up on earnings.  To The Arora Report and anyone who understands rack architecture, it was obvious that the increase in earnings in November 2024 was temporary due to Semtech’s CopperEdge product being included in Nvidia’s (NVDA) stack.   At The Arora Report, we quickly concluded that the likely changes in Nvidia’s server rack architecture did not justify aggressive buying of SMTC stock.  The momo crowd continued to buy SMTC stock.
• The chart shows that the stock dropped on earnings in February as the company announced what was obvious not only to The Arora Report but to any investor who did proper analysis.
• The chart shows that the drop in SMTC stock is on high volume, indicating that the momo crowd feels trapped and is panicking and selling SMTC stock.
• For most stocks, it is not as clear cut as SMTC, and the stocks continue to run. Prudent investors need to know that there is only air underneath them.  It is difficult to short stocks like SMTC due to short squeezes.
• Fed Chair Powell will appear before the Senate today and the House on Wednesday.  Powell is going to be in a difficult spot – Republicans are going to try very hard to have Powell agree with President Trump’s policies and Democrats are going to try very hard to have Powell say something against Trump’s policies.  The consensus is that Powell will not take sides.  What Powell says, especially during Q&A, may be market moving.  The prepared text of Powell’s opening statement is expected to be released prior to the testimony.
• This morning, there is some selling in the early trade as many investors are concerned about the impact of reciprocal tariffs that Trump may impose.  On the positive side, the momo crowd continues to buy.
• Trump is warning that tariffs on steel and aluminum can go higher than the present 25%.
• Investors are anxiously waiting for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6065 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131, 6256, and 6500 : support levels are 6017, 5926, and 5748.

DJIA futures are down 122 points.

Gold futures are at $2915, silver futures are at $31.83, and oil futures are at $73.60.

MOMO CROWD BUYS STOCKS ON TRUMP IMPOSING NEW TARIFFS, CHINA FREES UP BILLIONS TO BUY GOLD

Feb 10, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

New Tariffs

Please click here for a chart of Nucor stock (NUE).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of NUE is being used to illustrate the point.
• NUE is the biggest steel maker in the U.S.
• The chart shows when the stock started falling on weakening steel demand.
• The chart shows when earnings were reported.  NUE guided earnings below consensus.
• The chart shows the stock has been rising in anticipation of Trump imposing tariffs.
• The chart shows that the stock is gapping up this morning on Trump imposing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum from all countries.
• Trump is also threatening that he will impose reciprocal tariffs this week.
• What a difference a week makes. Last Monday, the stock market opened down significantly when Trump had not removed the tariffs on Canada and Mexico.  Today, on Trump imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum, the momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks.  The momo crowd appears to be oblivious to the threat of reciprocal tariffs, which in The Arora Report analysis, will be a much bigger deal.
• In The Arora Report analysis, Trump is not likely to quickly back off from the tariffs on steel and aluminum like he previously did with Canada and Mexico.  
• At one time, China was the biggest exporter of steel and aluminum to the U.S.  Now, Canada is the biggest exporter of steel and aluminum to the U.S. Canada produces a lot of steel and aluminum but it also gets a lot of steel and aluminum from China.
• China has freed up billions of dollars to buy gold.  Please see the gold section below.
• In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors need to make a special note of momo crowd behavior.  The momo crowd is now buying stocks on Trump imposing tariffs.  Yet, tariffs pose a risk.  As such, logic would dictate trimming stocks, not buying stocks, on the imposition of tariffs.  In The Arora Report analysis, part of the momo crowd’s actions are the result of Trump’s rising popularity.  A CBS poll shows Trump’s approval rating is at a new high.
• Sentiment remains in the extreme positive zone.  The momo crowd buying last week was the most aggressive since late 2021.  You may recall a bear market ensued in 2022 when Nasdaq lost 33%.  As a reminder, sentiment is a contrary indicator.  In plain English, extreme positive sentiment is a sell signal.  However, as we have previously shared, sentiment is not a precise timing signal.  Investors should use a 360 degree analysis, such as the adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.
• This is a big week for inflation data.  Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday at 8:30am ET.  Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Thursday at 8:30am ET.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

For the first time ever, Chinese insurers will be allowed to invest up to 1% of assets in gold.  Gold is rising.

Prudent investors should also note a contrast between the U.S. and China.  In the U.S., Trump allies want to sell gold stored at Fort Knox to buy bitcoin.  China has banned bitcoin and is buying gold.

In addition to the core position, there is a new trade around position in gold in ZYX Allocation.  Trade around positions are a billionaire and hedge fund technique to dramatically increase returns and reduce risks.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6086 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131, 6256, and 6500: support levels are 6017, 5926, and 5748,

DJIA futures are up 251 points.

Gold futures are at $2923, silver futures are at $32.39, and oil futures are at $71.85.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.