By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report. 

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

GOLD CROSSES $3000, STOCK BUYING ON DEMOCRATS BLINKING AND SOME INVESTORS TURNING EXTREMELY BEARISH

Mar 14, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Gold Hitting New High

Please click here for a chart of gold ETF (GLD).

Note the following:

• The chart of gold ETF is a monthly chart to give you a long term picture.
• The chart shows that gold has moved to a new high.  As of this writing, April gold futures are trading at $3007.
• The chart shows several highly accurate Arora signals on gold.
• The chart also shows when an Arora call triggered a $200 global selloff in gold.  Business Standard, which is like the Wall Street Journal of India, highlighted The Arora Report call.
• RSI on the chart shows that gold is overbought.
• As always, markets have crosscurrents.  The positive in gold is it has broken above $3000.  The negative is that gold is overbought and can pullback.
• In ZYX Allocation, there is a signal on a trade around position in GLD.  In ZYX Buy, there are trade around position signals on silver ETF (SLV) and gold miner Newmont (NEM).  The core positions in gold ETF GLD and silver ETF SLV are highly profitable.
• In the early trade, there is aggressive buying in the stock market on Democrats blinking and allowing the Senate to pass the Republican spending bill.  The government shutdown appears to have been avoided.
• Buying is also coming in based on the results of AAII Sentiment Survey.
  • AAII members are individual investors who tend to be older and not part of the momo crowd. Only 19.1% of AAII members are bullish.  Historically, on the average 37.5% of these investors are bullish. 59.2% of these investors are bearish vs. a historical average of 31.0%.
  • AAII members tend to be extremely pessimistic at market bottoms.  They are a contrary indicator.
  • Long time members of The Arora Report may recall that on March 9, 2009,  The Arora Report issued a signal to back up the truck and buy stocks.  The protection band was at 0%.  With the benefit of hindsight, March 9, 2009 turned out to be the start of a long bull market.  At that time, AAII members were extremely bearish.
• Prudent investors need to understand that the stock market has many groups of investors.  It is important to take into account the groups that move the stock market.  AAII members do not move the stock market.
• In our decades in the markets, we have learned that investors should not act on the AAII survey alone.  A 360 degree analysis is a better approach for high risk adjusted returns.
• Prudent investors should rely on more comprehensive indications of sentiment such as The Arora Report’s proprietary sentiment indicator.  Around the market top, we were sharing with you the sentiment was in the extreme positive zone.  Now, on The Arora Report’s proprietary indicator sentiment has backed off from extreme positive to positive.  Sentiment is a contrary indicator at extremes. 
• The news from Germany and China is also boosting sentiment in the early trade.  Please see the section below.
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released today at 10am ET.  This is very important data and may be market moving.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Germany

Friedrich Merz, Germany’s Chancellor-In-Waiting, has reached an agreement with the Greens on a borrowing package to finance defense and infrastructure spending.

China

Chinese stocks surged on hopes of more government support.  CSI 300 jumped 2.4%.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

 Also keep in mind, today is a Friday.  There are two  crosscurrents:

• Short sellers will be buying.  If a short squeeze occurs, buying by short sellers can become aggressive.
• Institutions will try to lighten up on rallies ahead of the weekend, to reduce risk from not knowing what Trump will say over the weekend.  

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5582 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5622, 5748, and 5926: support levels are 5500, 5400, and 5256.

DJIA futures are up 245 points.

Gold futures are at $3007, silver futures are at $34.70, and oil futures are at $67.19.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

PRODUCER INFLATION CRATERS, A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN WILL BE A BUYING OPPORTUNITY

Mar 13, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Producer Inflation Craters

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• This morning there are significant crosscurrents in both the positive and negative direction.
• The chart shows the stock market briefly dropped below the low band of support zone 1 before bouncing.
• RSI on the chart shows that after briefly moving out of the oversold zone, RSI reentered the oversold zone.
• In an unexpected development, producer inflation cratered in February.  Here are the details:
  • Headline PPI came at 0.0% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Core PPI came at -0.1% vs. 0.3% consensus.
• Jobless claims show that the labor market is staying strong.  This is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in The Arora Report ZYX Asset Allocation Model.  Initial jobless claims came at 220K vs. 228K consensus.
• The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 bps.  It is important for prudent investors to understand the reasoning behind the interest rate cut in Canada as the Fed may ultimately follow the same logic.  In The Arora Report analysis, the real reason the Bank of Canada is cutting interest rates at this time is to counter the impact of tariffs.  Here is the pertinent section of the statement from the Bank of Canada: “The Canadian economy entered 2025 in a solid position, with inflation close to the 2% target and robust GDP growth. However, heightened trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States will likely slow the pace of economic activity and increase inflationary pressures in Canada. The economic outlook continues to be subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape.”
• President Trump is threatening 200% retaliatory tariffs on European wines.  Europe has 50% tariffs on whiskey.  This is bringing in selling in the stock market.
• Thank you for all of your emails regarding The Arora Report’s analysis on the impact of President Trump’s agenda on investors’ portfolios.  The Arora Report limits its analysis of Trump’s agenda to the impact on investments and the economy.  Almost all readers agree with the analysis and like that it is based on facts, not politics.  It is of interest that about 50% of emails say that The Arora Report needs to admit that it has Democrat leanings, and 50% say The Arora Report has Republican leanings.  The even split indicates that The Arora Report is being successful in helping investors with an objective analysis and not being influenced by politics.
• Based on member emails, it is very important to remember to separate your politics from investing.  At The Arora Report, we have seen both Democrats and Republicans miss out on large gains because they thought the stock market would crash on the new president’s watch.  For example, many Democrats stayed out of the market during Trump’s first term because they thought the stock market would crash.  To the contrary, during Trump’s first term, the S&P 500 increased about 68%.  Similarly, many Republicans stayed out of the market during Biden’s term thinking the stock market would crash.  Again, to the contrary, the S&P 500 rose about 58%.
• The House passed the Republican spending bill.  Now, it is up to the Senate Republicans and Democrats to come to terms to prevent a government shutdown.  Neither party wants a shutdown.  However, Democrats see negotiations on spending at this time as their best opportunity to push back against Trump’s agenda.
• In The Arora Report analysis, based on history, if the stock market drops on a government shutdown, it has historically always been a buying opportunity.  Having said that, there are many other factors at play. Investors should make decisions based on a 360 degree analysis such as from the adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.
• In yesterday’s Morning Capsule, we shared with you:

Prudent investors should note that longer term interest rates are rising instead of falling on cooler inflation.  The normal pattern would have been for interest rates to fall.  This abnormal pattern is a negative.  If this trend persists, it has the potential to kill the budding stock market rally.

• The foregoing observation has now proven spot on. Yesterday’s budding rally gave back a big part of initial gains on rising bond yields.  The probability of a rate cut by May is only one half of what it was before the release of better than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI).  Based on better than expected CPI, the probability of a rate cut should have gone up, not down.  In The Arora Report analysis, there are two reasons that the probability of a rate cut has gone down on better inflation data:
  • The prospect of stagflation
  • The impact of tariffs
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are like a yoyo in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5590 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5622, 5748, and 5926: support levels are 5500, 5400, and 5256

DJIA futures are down 31 points.

Gold futures are at $2952, silver futures are at $33.60, and oil futures are at $67.25.

DEPLOY CASH AND REDUCE HEDGES, COOLER INFLATION DATA, WALL STREET POSITIONED INCORRECTLY

Mar 12, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Deploy Cash And Reduce Hedges

Consider deploying cash and reducing hedges. It is important to proceed cautiously.  The changes being made are small.  The trigger for the call is three-fold:

• Cooler Consumer Price Index (CPI) data
• Incorrect Wall Street positioning
• An oversold market

The protection band is based on the adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.

This is simply a tactical move, not a strategic move.  Please see the “Protection Band And What To Do Now” section below as well as the separate post on hedges for details.

Cooler Inflation

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that the stock market is bouncing off of the low band of the support zone.
• RSI on the chart indicates the stock market is just beginning to move out of the oversold zone.
• Wall Street was positioned for hotter CPI data.  Positioning is an important Wall Street mechanic.  Wall Street professionals keep market mechanics close to their chest due to the high value.  Understanding market mechanics gives investors a big edge.  The easiest way to learn market mechanics is to listen to the podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club.
• CPI came cooler than expected.  Here are the details:
  • Headline CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Core CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
• Even though a tactical move is being made to deploy cash and reduce hedges, the overarching theme is still to be defensive due to the uncertainty emanating from Trump’s policies.  If the stock market moves up, the plan is to take advantage of the up move to take profits on any tactical positions, increase cash and increase hedges. 
• Expect the stock market to stay very volatile.
• The tentative time to start building or add to strategic positions for investors who are not aggressive will be if there is a dip in support zone 2 shown on the chart.  This is simply a heads up.  Nothing is cast in stone.  All investors should consider staying nimble and paying attention to new data as it comes.  
• Prudent investors should note that longer term interest rates are rising instead of falling on cooler inflation.  The normal pattern would have been for interest rates to fall.  This abnormal pattern is a negative.  If this trend persists, it has the potential to kill the budding stock market rally.  
• In the early trade, there was extremely aggressive buying on release of CPI data.  The up spike was met with selling, causing the stock market to pull back.  The pullback is being met with aggressive buying as of this writing in the premarket.
• Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial jobless claims will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Japan

Prudent investors pay attention to the yen and yields in Japan due to the carry trade.  There are positions in ZYX Allocation in yen ETF (FXY) and Japan equities ETF (EWJ).

Yields in Japan have been rising.  Investors have been keeping an eye on the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

BOJ Governor Ueda is saying he is not too worried about rising yields.

Europe

Europe is responding to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.  As retaliation, Europe is imposing tariffs on U.S. goods including steel, aluminum, agricultural goods, textiles, and home appliances.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

Gold is seeing buying on CPI data.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 4.247M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 2.1M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying on CPI data.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5642 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5748, 5926, and 6017: support levels are 5622, 5500, and 5400.

DJIA futures are up 314 points.

Gold futures are at $2924, silver futures are at $33.71, and oil futures are at $67.17.

HEDGES BECOME PROFITABLE, TRUMP STOCK MARKET PUT FAILED – TRUMP HAS BIGGER FISH TO FRY

Mar 11, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Take Partial Profits On Hedges

After the sell off, hedges have become nicely profitable.  Consider taking partial profits on hedges.  Please see the separate post and the “Protection Band And What To Do Now” section below.

Nibbling

Aggressive investors may consider nibbling stocks and ETFs that are entering buy zones.  Nibbling simply means entering very, very small tranches in existing recommendations.

As a caution, be sure to not gorge.  

Stock Market Put

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows the stock market fell to the bottom band of support zone 1.
• When the stock market approaches the bottom band of a support zone, a bounce is expected.  This is exactly what happened yesterday afternoon.
• As a member of The Arora Report, you knew in advance that this was the highest probability scenario.  On March 4, we wrote: 

Unless President Trump changes his mind or the Fed changes its policy, the stock market going to the support zone is the highest probability scenario at this time.

• In the short term, here are the key points:
  • Selling yesterday was exaggerated by margin calls to momo crowd accounts.
  • At the end of the day, the stock market rallied as short sellers bought to cover on the stock market approaching the low band of the support zone.
  • In the evening, futures took another leg down on expectations of a selloff in Asia.
  • Markets stabilized in Asia.  Chinese stocks even gained.  Action in Asia brought in buying in the futures in the U.S.
• RSI on the chart shows the stock market is oversold.  Oversold markets tend to bounce.
• The chart shows the selloff yesterday was on higher volume.  This indicates that there was mild conviction in the selloff.  The volume needed to be higher than it was to wash out the sellers – this indicates a high probability of another leg down.    
• The chart shows the stock market is below the 200 day moving average.  We previously shared with you:

• The 200 day moving average is very powerful, and all investors should pay attention to it.

• The reason the 200 day moving average is so powerful is because legions of  investors believe in it and act on it, and the media publicizes it.

• Other than the deeply held myth, the 200 day moving average does not have any special power.  Afterall, why not a 190 day or 210 day moving average?

• As you know, The Arora Report is rigorously analytical.  Rigorous analysis shows that the 200 day average by itself has no magical power.

• Legions of investors buy stocks when the stock market pulls back to the 200 day moving average because they erroneously consider the 200 day moving average as a major support.  There is no analytically valid basis for this myth.

• Legions of investors also sell stocks when the stock market breaks below the 200 day moving average.  Again, there is no analytical basis for this belief.

• Below are extremely important points for prudent investors to fully grasp.  The Arora Report is politically agnostic.  Our sole objective is to help investors maximize the wealth they generate over their lifetimes.
  • During President Trump’s first term, the stock market had a Trump put.  In plain English, a Trump put meant that Trump did not allow a significant drop in the stock market.
  • Every time the stock market started to drop during his first term, Trump jumped into action.  For example, in December 2018, when the stock market started falling on the Fed raising interest rates, Trump relentlessly berated Fed Chair Powell.  Ultimately, Powell lost his spine and reversed course.  Powell’s reversal caused the stock market to start a mega party. In the process, Powell sowed the seeds of inflation.
  • When Trump was re-elected, it was natural for investors to believe that once again the stock market had a Trump put.  Prudent investors need to remember that investors suffer from recency bias.   In plain English, recency bias means that most often, investors believe that the road ahead will be the same as the road behind.
  • This time, Trump has experience from his first term.  Instead of claiming the glory of the stock market going up during his presidency, Trump appears to have a bigger fish to fry.  The bigger fish is to truly make America great again.
  • An easy way for prudent investors to understand what Trump appears to be wanting to do it to think of investors in the U.S. as addicts who have been continuously fed intoxicating substances by the U.S. government over the last 20 years.  With borrowing and spending, it got so bad that no one would even talk about detox.  Whether you like Trump or dislike Trump, the fact is that he is the first president since Ronald Reagan who appears to have the guts to take the country through a detox.  Here is the key question for investors – will Trump carry through a full detox, or will he get distracted along the way?
• In the long run, detox is good for the country and for investors.  In the short run, detox may upset the apple cart.
• No one can deny that the U.S. government cannot continue with the following:
  • Massive borrowing and spending
  • Growing the national debt to unsustainable levels
  • Transferring massive wealth from the U.S. to other countries such as China
  • Paying for highly inefficient and bloated bureaucracy as well as massive frauds
  • Paying for the defense of Europe
• The JOLTS report will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) is ahead on Wednesday at 8:30am ET, and Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Thursday at 8:30am ET.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are like a yoyo in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  The reason is that whichever direction that stock market starts moving, Wall Street’s machines will jump in that direction, exaggerating the move.  It is important to note that Wall Street’s machines are simply going to be reactive, not proactive.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5624 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5748, 5926, and 6017: support levels are 5622, 5500, and 5400.

DJIA futures are up 2 points.

Gold futures are at $2918, silver futures are at $32.97, and oil futures are at $66.70.

MONEY FLOWING OUT OF U.S. STOCK MARKET INTO EUROPE, “A PERIOD OF TRANSITION” SAYS TRUMP

Mar 10, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Money Flowing To Europe

Please click here for a chart comparing S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX), European defense ETF (EUAD), and Euro STOXX 50 ETF (FEZ).

Note the following:

• For the period shown on the chart,  Europe has outperformed the U.S. stock market by 10.39%.  The chart also shows European defense ETF (EUAD) has outperformed SPY by 22.12%.
• Money continues to flow from the U.S. stock market to European stock markets.
• We have previously shared with you the unintended consequence of the Trump Zelenskyy confrontation.  This was a watershed moment unlike anything else since World War II.  From an investment perspective, the confrontation was a trigger for money to start flowing out of the U.S. and into Europe.
• In The Arora Report analysis, increased defense spending in Europe is not a done deal, even though the stock market believes it is.  
• Historically, Europe has had difficulty uniting behind increased defense spending.  Further, in The Arora Report analysis, it must all start from Germany.  The coalition of Friedrich Merz, Germany’s Chancellor-In-Waiting, proposes to increase defense spending and also create a $500B infrastructure fund.  For certain reforms, it takes a two third majority in Bundestag. Support of the Greens may become important.  However, the Greens have concerns due to the lack of climate protection measures in new spending.
• President Trump is not ruling out the possibility of a recession.  Trump said, “I hate to predict things like that.  There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big.”
• In the early trade, the U.S. stock market is seeing selling due to Trump’s remarks.
• The Arora Report’s prior call was to buy on Trump’s re-election, take partial profits from Christmas to New Years, and take more profits going into Trump’s inauguration.  The Arora Report call has proven spot on.
• We have been sharing with you since November 2024 that when hopium met reality the stock market would have a problem.  This is exactly what is happening right now.
• If the stock market falls further, momo crowd accounts will start getting more margin calls.  Such margin calls will accelerate selling.  Momo crowd accounts are already decimated because of their concentration in highly speculative stocks.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

China

For the first time in a year, inflation in China is below zero.  Here are the details:

• CPI came at -0.2% month-over-month vs. -0.1% consensus and -0.7% year-over-year vs. -0.4% consensus.
• PPI came at -2.2% year-over-year vs. -2.0% consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD)  saw selling yesterday.  The dip is being bought.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5698 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5748, 5926, and 6017: support levels are 5622, 5500, and 5400.

DJIA futures are down 472 points.

Gold futures are at $2912, silver futures are at $32.99, and oil futures are at $67.53.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.