By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report. 

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

HIGH BANDWIDTH MEMORY BENEFICIARY OF NVIDIA CHIPS BUT MICRON REVERSES, FEDEX HURTS SENTIMENT

Mar 21, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Pay Attention To Sentiment

Please click here for a chart of Micron stock (MU).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of MU stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• The chart of MU stock is important as it demonstrates the behavior of non-momo crowd investors towards tech stocks has changed, while the momo crowd is sticking to its old behavior.
• The chart shows momo crowd buying ahead of Micron earnings.  Since the momo crowd buys on hopium and does not take risk into account, the momo crowd buys ahead of earnings.  In contrast, smart money tends to control risk ahead of earnings, since earnings is a risk event.
• The chart shows the momo crowd aggressively running up MU stock after earnings to over $109.  Micron earnings were better than the consensus and whisper numbers.
• If the same earnings were reported at any time over the last two years, this morning MU stock would have rocketed further, perhaps to $120.  Instead, the chart shows MU stock has fallen to $99.45 as of this writing in the premarket, not only giving up its gain but also turning negative.  
• In The Arora Report analysis, non-momo crowd investors took advantage of momo crowd buying and sold into the strength.  The same pattern is being seen in many tech stocks.  
• Micron is one of the three largest manufacturers of semiconductor memory in the world.  Semiconductor memory has become the lifeblood of the modern economy.
• More important is that Micron produces the most advanced high bandwidth memory.  High bandwidth memory is essential for AI.
• The reversal in MU stock is causing sentiment to dampen on all tech stocks.
• We have previously shared with you about Nvidia GTC.  In terms of Nvidia suppliers, Micron is the biggest beneficiary of what we learned at Nvidia GTC about Nvidia’s (NVDA) new chips.  Information from Nvidia GTC is negative for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC), and Broadcom (AVGO).
• Yesterday was Nvidia’s first ever Quantum Day.  We wrote in yesterday’s Morning Capsule:

In The Arora Report analysis, there is a high probability of a sell-the-news reaction in quantum stocks.  Quantum computing has the potential to be bigger than the internet.

• The Arora Report’s call about quantum computing has proven spot on.  Quantum computing stocks such as IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti (RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Quantum Computing (QUBT), and Arqit Quantum (ARQQ) have experienced major drops.
• Adding to the pall for non-tech stocks this morning are earnings from FedEx (FDX).  FedEx is a global shipping and logistics giant.  FedEX earnings, in big part, depend on the strength of the global economy.  FedEx reported earnings below consensus and whisper numbers.  FDX stock is down over 9% as of this writing in the premarket.
• After FedEx hurting consumer discretionary stocks this morning are earnings from Nike (NKE). The Nike turnaround is going to take longer under its new highly respected CEO.
• Helping cushion in the drop in the stock market this morning is the expiration of futures this morning.  Options will expire at the end of the day and may exert upward pressure.  $4.5T of derivatives are expiring today.
• In the Afternoon Capsule after the Fed announcement, we shared with you that the stock market was running up on aggressive momo crowd buying.  At a time when the stock market was running up on aggressive buying, we wrote:

In The Arora Report analysis, Powell has done a masterful job of comforting the stock market.  However, prudent investors should note that the risks are not balanced anymore and the dot plot is mildly more hawkish.  Right now, the momo crowd is buying stocks as Powell provides comfort.  Smart money is not likely to find the same comfort that the momo crowd is finding.

• The foregoing call has proven spot on.  The stock market has now given up all of the Fed rally and more.
• The stock market needs to make a stand right around here and go up.  Otherwise, the momo crowd will incur major losses.  In The Arora Report analysis, if the momo crowd incurs major losses, they will have less buying power to run up the stock market.  Over the last two years, the momo crowd has been the primary force running up the stock market.  It is important to pay attention to the momo crowd’s buying power.  
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Germany

In a watershed event, for the first time since World War II, Germany approved 500B euros in infrastructure and defense spending in addition to a borrowing increase.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5665 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5748, 5926, and 6017: support levels are 5622, 5500, and 5400.

DJIA futures are down 363 points.

Gold futures are at $3042, silver futures are at $33.68, and oil futures are at $68.03.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

NVIDIA’S FIRST QUANTUM COMPUTING DAY, $4.5T QUAD WITCHING, EUROPEAN BANKS BEAT TECH STOCKS BY 34%

Mar 20, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Fed Rethink

Please click here for a chart comparing Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) to European financials ETF (EUFN).

Note the following:

• When 2025 started, investors were rushing headlong to buy tech stocks.  Investors were also selling European financial stocks.
• The chart is an eye popper – the opposite of the prevailing wisdom from early 2025 has happened.  The chart shows in 2025 European financials have outperformed tech stocks, represented by QQQ, by 33.88%.
• Members of The Arora Report who follow ZYX Allocation have profited from the move in European financial stocks.  European financial ETF EUFN is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.
• The eye popping 33.88% outperformance in less than three months illustrates why investors need to diversify beyond tech stocks.
• Yesterday after the Fed announcement, when the momo crowd was aggressively buying stocks and the stock market was running up fast, we wrote in the Afternoon Capsule:

In The Arora Report analysis, Powell has done a masterful job of comforting the stock market.  However, prudent investors should note that the risks are not balanced anymore and the dot plot is mildly more hawkish.  Right now, the momo crowd is buying stocks as Powell provides comfort.  Smart money is not likely to find the same comfort that the momo crowd is finding.

• The call from the Afternoon Capsule has proven spot on.  This morning, smart money is selling stocks due to the Fed’s announcement.  This morning on Wall Street, there is a rethink of what the Fed said.  The rethink is inline with what you already knew in advance from The Arora Report’s analysis in yesterday’s Afternoon Capsule.
• Nvidia is hosting its first quantum computing day today.  Quantum computing stocks have been running up in anticipation of bullish news coming out of the event.
• Companies participating in Nvidia’s quantum computing day include IonQ (IONQ), D-Wave (QBTS), and Rigetti Computing (RGTI).
• Investors need to be very careful with quantum computing stocks at this time as they have become the mecca of pump and dump schemes and short squeezes.
• In The Arora Report analysis, there is a high probability of a sell-the-news reaction in quantum stocks.  Quantum computing has the potential to be bigger than the internet.  For those who are interested in next level information and learning when to invest in quantum stocks, listen to the podcast series in Arora Ambassador Club.
• Initial jobless claims came at 223K vs. 220K consensus. Jobless claims continue to behave well.  Initial jobless claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in The Arora Report’s adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.
• Quadruple witching is tomorrow.  $4.5T notional value of derivatives will expire.  Quad witching appears to be deterring the stock market from falling and may even cause an upspike.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

U.K.

The Bank of England (BOE) has announced its rate decision.  BOE is maintaining rates at 4.5%.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) ran up with stocks yesterday on the Fed’s announcement.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 57034 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5748, 5926, and 6017: support levels are 5622, 5500, and 5400.

DJIA futures are down 204 points.

Gold futures are at $3049, silver futures are at $34.00, and oil futures are at $67.05.

HUMAN-LIKE REASONING AI AGENTS AND ROBOTS ARE A BIG MARKET FOR NVIDIA BUT NVIDIA STOCK HAS A PROBLEM

Mar 19, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Dot Plot And Balance Sheet

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• The chart shows that after a much anticipated keynote speech by Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang, NVDA stock pulled back to the top band of the mini support zone.
• The chart shows aggressive buying ahead of Huang’s speech in anticipation of NVDA stock going higher.
• The chart shows the momo crowd’s expectations were not met.  Those in the momo crowd who primarily buy call options are now sitting on large losses.
• Huang’s speech was excellent.  Here are the key points from The Arora Report’s analysis:
  • Nvidia is doing excellent as a company.  There is a disconnect between NVDA stock price and Nvidia as a company.
  • The biggest market of all will be the market for robots.  Nvidia is well positioned to provide AI intelligence and systems for robots.
  • Human-like AI agents are at the cusp of widespread adoption.  These agents are based on reasoning models.  Reasoning models need significantly more compute than regular models.  AI agents will drive demand for Nvidia’s chips.
  • Nvidia is moving into autonomous driving.  Nvidia announced a deal with General Motors (GM).
  • Nvidia is widening its lead over competitors.
  • Nvidia is strengthening its moat.
• Here is the question everyone is asking: In spite of so many positives, why did NVDA stock not rocket up?  Of course, as a member of The Arora Report, you knew the answer in advance.  Since you knew the answer in advance, you were not sucked into buying NVDA stock during the run up leading to Huang’s speech.
• We have previously shared with you that the problem NVDA stock has is overownership.  Please see the prior Morning Capsule for details.  Those who want next level information may consider listening to the podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club.
• Nvidia illustrates the beauty of the highly refined, multilayer methodology followed by members of The Arora Report.
  • The original core position in NVDA stock is long from $12.55 and most of the position is still being held.  This illustrates the power of the ZYX Change Method to buy a stock when it is in stage one.
  • The fact that most of the position is still being held, resulting in major gains, shows the foresight that comes from decades of experience.
  • Along the way, there have been successful, shorter term, trade around positions.
  • The core position is appropriately hedged to preserve the gains.
• The Fed will announce its rate decision at 2pm ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm ET.  The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged.  At The Arora Report, we will be carefully analyzing the following:
  • The dot plot
  • The Fed’s balance sheet, especially regarding QT
  • How Powell straddles the uncertainty caused by tariffs
  • The Fed’s take on rising consumer inflation expectations.  Rising consumer inflation expectations are the last thing the Fed wants to see.
• The momo crowd’s historical pattern is to buy ahead of the Fed meeting on hopium.  This morning is no different.  The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade hoping the Fed will help the market run up.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Japan

Prudent investors keep a close eye on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) due to the impact of the carry trade on stock markets across the globe including the U.S. stock market, particularly tech stocks.

BOJ has been in the mode of raising interest rates.  However, after its latest meeting, the BOJ left rates unchanged.  This has stopped the rise of the yen.

The primary reason BOJ did not raise interest rates appears to be the potential fallout from U.S. tariffs.  

Turkey

Turkey has detained the mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu.  He is the main rival to Turkish President Erdogan.  The opposition is calling this “a coup against our next president.”  Before this development, Turkey had a lot going for it.

• Turkey will benefit from increased spending in Europe.
• Turkey will benefit from thawing relations between the U.S. and Russia.
• Turkey has lately engaged in investor friendly policies.  As a result, there is a lot of room for the Turkish market to run.

The detention of Erdogan’s main rival has raised concerns about political upheaval.  The Turkish lira crashed as much as 12% on the news.

A big dip in Turkey will likely be a buying opportunity.  Stay tuned to ZYX Emerging for signals.  Turkey has been covered continuously in ZYX Emerging for 18 years.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 4.593M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 1.17M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5680 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5748, 5926, and 6017: support levels are 5622, 5500, and 5400.

DJIA futures are up 42 points.

Gold futures are at $3046, silver futures are at $34.53, and oil futures are at $66.82.

THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT WALL STREET TOLD YOU ABOUT STOCKS HAS HAPPENED, KEY NVIDIA EVENT AHEAD

Mar 18, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Outperforming Markets

Please click here for a chart comparing S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), Euro Stoxx 50 ETF, Mexico EFT (EWW), and emerging markets ETF (EEM).

Note the following:

• The Arora Report’s call was to buy tactical positions on President Trump’s re-election and sell on the inauguration.  That call has now proven spot on.
• The chart shows that since Trump’s inauguration, SPY is down 6.2% and QQQ is down 8.01%.
• Wall Street’s consensus call was that the U.S. stock market would go higher after Trump’s inauguration.  The chart shows that so far Wall Street’s call has been wrong.
• Another consensus call from Wall Street has also been proven wrong.  Wall Street’s call was that Nasdaq 100, which is mostly tech stocks, would outperform S&P 500.  The chart shows tech stocks have under performed S&P 500 by 1.9%.
• More striking is that, as shown on the chart,  emerging market stocks have outperformed the U.S. stock market by 12.78%.
• Even more remarkable, as is shown on the chart, is that large European stocks have outperformed the U.S. stock market by 17%.
• Most remarkable is that the Mexican stock market has outperformed the U.S. stock market by 16.35%.
• After analyzing the new administration’s policies, Wall Street’s consensus call was to sell emerging market stocks, including Mexican stocks, and European stocks.   Further, Wall Street’s consensus was to put the money from selling international stocks into U.S. tech stocks.  Wall Street made two supportive arguments:
  • After Trump’s inauguration, U.S. exceptionalism would take center stage.
  • Tariffs would hurt emerging markets, including Mexico, and Europe.
• Here are the three lessons from the foregoing:
  • A well diversified portfolio is a component of maximizing the wealth investors extract from the markets.  Diversification should include international markets.
  • Follow Arora’s Second Law of Investing and Trading that states “Nobody knows with certainty, what is going to happen next in the markets.”  Make decisions based on Arora’s Third Law that states, “Making investing and trading decisions based on probabilities is the only realistic and profitable approach.”  Arora’s Thirty Laws of Investing and Trading are the foundation of achieving high risk adjusted returns.
  • Prudent investors cannot rely solely on Wall Street consensus and media, as they are often wrong.
• In The Arora Report analysis, Wall Street’s call was wrong because Wall Street did not do a 360 degree analysis.  Wall Street was focused on only one viewpoint as it suffered from recency bias.  The recency bias was that Trump’s second term would be the same as Trump’s first term.  Of course, as a member of The Arora Report, you knew in advance that Trump’s second term was going to be different from Trump’s first term.  Those investors who read the Morning Capsules with a neutral lens benefited.
• At Nvidia’s (NVDA) GPU Technology Conference 2025 (Nvidia GTC), the key event today is Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote speech at 1pm ET.  Huang’s speech is extremely important as it will determine the direction of artificial intelligence stocks and, in turn, the entire stock market.
• The FOMC meeting starts today.  The rate decision will be announced tomorrow at 2pm ET followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm ET.
• In The Arora Report analysis, the move up in the stock market over the last two days has been a result of the following:
  • A viscous short squeeze
  • Dip buying mentality
• In The Arora Report analysis, this morning the first leg of the short squeeze appears to be over.  This is removing buying pressure resulting in stocks drifting lower in the early trade.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Housing

After a sustained period of weakness, the new data shows housing is picking up.  Here are the details of the just released data.

• Housing starts came at 1.5M vs. 1.385M consensus.
• Building permits came at 1.456M vs. 1.450M consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVDA, Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil is seeing buying on rumors of U.S. Aircraft carriers moving closer to Iran.  

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5715  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5748, 5926, and 6017: support levels are 5622, 5500, and 5400.

DJIA futures are down 118 points.

Gold futures are at $3043, silver futures are at $34.94, and oil futures are at $68.18.

NVIDIA GTC AND QUANTUM COMPUTING DRIVERS OF THE STOCK MARKET, TRUMP PUT FAILS BUT MAY NOT BE DEAD

Mar 17, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Market Drivers

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• Nvidia GPU Technology Conference 2025 (Nvidia GTC) and quantum computing will be big drivers of the stock market this week.
• The chart shows that NVDA stock dipped below the mini support zone but did not reach the support zone before bouncing.  Technically, this is a positive.
• When NVDA stock fell below the mini support zone, the mini support zone became the mini resistance zone.  The chart shows that NVDA stock cut through this zone like a hot knife through butter.  This is a positive.
• The reason behind the up move in NVDA from the lows is investor enthusiasm about Nvidia GTC.
• In The Arora Report analysis, enthusiasm about Nvidia GTC among investors is extremely high — for NVDA stock to sustain its up move, Nvidia will have to come up with more positive announcements than currently expected.  If Nvidia does not come up with positive surprises, Nvidia stock can turn down again.
• Nvidia’s GTC starts today.  CEO Jensen Huang will give the keynote address tomorrow.  Expectations are for Nvidia to showcase Blackwell Ultra chips and next generation Rubin chips.  Rubin chips will not ship until 2026.
  • On the positive side, expectations are for Nvidia’s data center revenue to reach $237B  by January 2027.  That is more than double current revenue.  When expanded, expectations are for an average annual growth rate between now and 2029 of 30%.
  • On the negative side, Nvidia is facing increasing competition from in-house chips from the likes of Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL).  Additionally, efficiency improvements, like those claimed by DeepSeek, can alter the demand outlook for Nvidia’s premium chips.
• Nvidia GTC will also include Nvidia’s Quantum Day with a panel discussion on March 20 that includes IonQ (IONQ), D-Wave (QBTS), and Rigetti Computing(RGTI).  There is immense investor interest in this panel.  However, momo gurus who had not heard about quantum computing until a few months ago, have now become quantum experts.  These newly minted experts are driving quantum stocks beyond reality; pump and dump schemes as well as short squeezes are common.  For those who want next level information about investing in quantum computing, there is a podcast series on quantum computing in Arora Ambassador Club.
• The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.  Prudent investors pay attention to retail sales data.  Retail sales came weaker than expected.  Here is the latest retail sales data.
  • Headline retail sales came at 0.2% vs. 0.7% consensus.
  • Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.3% vs. 0.4% consensus.
• In The Arora Report analysis, going into today, whisper numbers had moved below consensus numbers for retail sales.  Retail sales data is better than the whisper numbers.  For this reason, buying is coming in on weaker retail sales.
• There are major events ahead this week:
  • Trump speaking with Putin
  • FOMC meeting
  • Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting
  • Bank of England (BOE) meeting
  • Germany defense spending
• The Trump put has failed.  Please see prior Morning Capsules to learn more.  In The Arora Report analysis, the Trump put may have failed for now, but it is likely not dead.  Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “I’ve been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are healthy, they are normal.  I‘m not worried about the markets.”  Prudent investors should note that Bessent used the word “correction.”  Correction means a 10% draw down.  The stock market is already there.  Bessent did not address a bear market.  Here is the key question for prudent investors: Will the Trump put come into the picture if the stock market starts approaching a bear market level?  A bear market level is 20% or more down.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Microsoft (MSFT) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil is being bought on consumption data from China.  

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5688 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5748, 5926, and 6017: support levels are 5622, 5500, 5400.

DJIA futures are down 57 points.

Gold futures are at $2996, silver futures are at $34.16, and oil futures are at $67.86.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.