By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora
Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’
NEW INFLATION DATA DISMAYS BULLS, COREWEAVE IPO SHOWS COOLING AI FRENZY, LULULEMON SHOWS CAUTIOUS CONSUMER
Mar 28, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Cooling AI Frenzy
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows that the breakout above the top band of support zone 1 has at least temporarily failed.
- The chart shows that the market has pulled back into support zone 1.
- RSI on the chart shows the market has lost its upside momentum.
- The chart shows that followers of traditional technical analysis have been whipsawed. Such investors bought when the market went above the 200 day moving average shown in yellow on the chart. The exuberance of investors was short lived as they sold when the market fell below the 200 day moving average.
- Prudent investors need to understand that these days smart money continuously makes profits by taking advantage of those who solely invest and trade based on traditional technical analysis.
- Market mechanics continue to bring significant buying. Without the significant buying from market mechanics, the market would have likely fallen by now to the lower band of support zone 1. Market mechanics at play include the following:
- Window dressing
- Rebalancing
- Positioning
- Short squeezes
- To the dismay of the stock market bulls, Fed’s favorite inflation gauge came in hotter than the whisper numbers but in line with the consensus. Here are the details:
- PCE came in at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
- Core PCE came in at 0.4% vs 0.4% consensus, but whisper numbers were around 0.3%.
- Prudent investors need to keep in mind that 0.4% annualized is 4.8%. This is a far cry from Fed’s target of 2% and Fed’s claim that inflation is close to the target.
- Since the US economy is 70% consumer based, prudent investors pay attention to personal income and spending. Here is the just released data:
- Personal spending came in at 0.4% vs. 0.6% consensus. This indicates that the consumer is pulling back.
- Personal income came in at 0.8% vs. 0.4% consensus.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the personal income headline is highly misleading. Incomes are stagnant and even declining at lower and middle income levels. Incomes are rapidly rising at the very high earner level.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) IPO was expected to be a hot IPO not too long ago. There were reasons for the IPO to be hot.
- CoreWeave is a highly respected provider of AI data centers.
- CoreWeave is backed by NVDA.
- NVDA was going to be the anchor buyer in the IPO.
- CoreWeave has access to the latest NVDA chips that others cannot get.
- CoreWeave’s clients include Microsoft (MSFT), OpenAI (AI), Nvidia (NVDA), Meta (META), and IBM (IBM).
- In a short period of time, the AI frenzy has cooled, leading to lower demand for the CoreWeave IPO. CoreWeave was expected to be priced in the range of $47 – $55. Due to the lack of demand, the IPO price has been slashed to $40 — in spite of NVDA anchoring the IPO with a $250M order. Further, initially the plan was to raise $2.7B from the IPO. Now CoreWeave is expected to raise only $1.5B.
- While lower and middle income consumers have been stretched, upper end consumers have been excessively spending. Now there is an indication from Lululemon (LULU) that upper end consumers have also started to pull back on their spending. LULU is a provider of athletic wear primarily to upper end consumers. The company reported good earnings but said it expects a revenue increase of only 5%-7% in 2025. As a reference, revenues grew 10% in 2024. This deceleration of revenues for LULU is the slowest growth rate on record. The company attributes the deceleration to consumers spending less due to concerns about inflation and the economy.
- In The Arora Report analysis, if high end consumers pull back, that will not be a good sign for the economy and in turn for the stock market.
- After President Trump announced tariffs on automobiles, the Wall Street’s take has been that automakers will be able to compensate for tariffs by raising prices. President Trump appears to be ahead of the game. Earlier this month, he warned car companies to not raise prices. This morning, concern is mounting that automakers will not be able to compensate for tariffs by raising prices for fear of punishment from President Trump.
- University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving. As we have been sharing with you, consumer sentiment has been falling.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia, MSFT, Alphabet (GOOG), Meta, and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. Remember today is Friday and short squeezes tend to occur on Fridays. Buying due to market mechanics can easily trigger a vicious short squeeze running the market higher. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
Gold futures have crossed above $3100 for the first time in history.
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar range bound.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5725 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5748, 5926, and 6017: support levels are 5622, 5500, and 5400.
DJIA futures are down 54 points.
Gold futures are at $3110, silver futures are at $35.35, and oil futures are at $69.87.
Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular. The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
FANTASY HOPIUM OF THE MOMO CROWD COMES CRASHING DOWN, EU WARNS CITIZENS TO STOCKPILE FOOD
Mar 27, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Momo Hopium Dashed
Please click here for a chart of General Motors (GM).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture and not an individual stock. The chart of GM is being used to illustrate the point.
- Momo crowd is one of the two most important groups in the stock market. Momo crowd doesn’t do much analysis and lives in a fantasy hopium world. The prudent investors need to ask this question: What will happen to the stock market if momo crowd fantasy hopium comes crashing down?
- The chart provides us with an answer.
- President Trump has been very clear that he wants automotive production in the United States. He has also been very clear that significant tariffs on automobiles were coming.
- The chart shows that the momo crowd has been running up GM stock on fantasy hopium. Momo gurus conjured up all kinds of fantasies — exemptions, carve outs, delays, and low tariff rates.
- Yesterday, momo crowd fantasy hopium came crashing down when President Trump announced 25% tariffs on imported cars and light trucks.
- There are no delays. Tariffs go into effect on April 2nd and the US starts collecting tariffs on April 3rd.
- The tariff rate is high.
- With the exception of US made auto parts, there are no exemptions and carve outs.
- The chart shows the gap down in GM stock.
- GM imports about 49% of its vehicles. As a reference, Ford (F) imports about 20% of its vehicles. Stellantis (STLA), the owner of Chrysler and Jeep, is less exposed because it manufactures more components in the United States.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the total hit to the automotive industry will be about $80B.
- Further in The Arora Report analysis, GM earnings may be hit by 25% – 30%. With that kind of hit to the earnings, GM stock should be down a lot more. By now you may be asking why GM stock is not down more.
- Momo crowd is aggressively buying GM stock as buy the dip mentality prevails.
- Momo gurus are urging their followers to buy GM stock as momo gurus contend that tariffs will be short-lived.
- Prudent investors should pay attention to what President Trump is saying. President Trump is clearly saying that these tariffs are permanent.
- In The Arora Report analysis, investors should not totally ignore what President Trump is saying, even though he frequently changes his mind.
- The reason that The Arora Report calls were so successful during President Trump’s first term is that at The Arora Report we learned to focus on what President Trump was trying to do. For those who want next level information on how to navigate President Trump’s pronouncements, listen to the podcast in Arora Ambassador Club.
- Market mechanics continue to be on the upside. Without the buying pressure from market mechanics, the market would have been down significantly this morning. The drop in the market after hours on the tariff announcement was bought.
- The employment picture continues to be steady. Initial jobless claims came in at 224K vs. 225K consensus. Initial claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories. In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions. Please click here to see how this is achieved. One of the reasons behind The Arora Report’s unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model. Most models on Wall Street are static. They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.
- Third estimate for Q4 GDP came at 2.4% vs. 2.3% consensus. This is a lagging indicator. However, you need to pay attention to it because institutional investors pay attention to it.
- Feds’ favorite inflation gauge PCE will be released tomorrow at 8:30 am ET.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Stock 72 Hours Of Food
Prudent investors should pay attention that risks across the globe are rising. In the latest development, the European Union is asking citizens to stockpile 72 hours of food. The trigger for this alarming call from the EU is twofold.
- Russia appears to be succeeding in settling the Ukraine War on favorable terms.
- Trump administration’s confrontational approach towards Europe.
China
China has developed a new powerful ship to cut undersea cables. Taiwan is highly dependent on undersea cables. There is increasing belief that China is preparing to attack Taiwan in 2027.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5747 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926, 6017, and 6131: support levels are 5622, 5500, and 5400.
DJIA futures are down 35 points.
Gold futures are at $3056, silver futures are at $34.59, and oil futures are at $69.67.
COPPER HITS A NEW HIGH, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT FOUR YEAR LOW, MARKET MECHANICS CONTROL STOCK MARKET
Mar 26, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Doctor Copper
Please click here for a chart of copper ETF (CPER).
Note the following:
- Copper is known as Doctor Copper because historically copper has been a good indicator of the global economy. However, this time it is different because the move in copper is due to President Trump’s policies.
- The chart is a monthly chart to give you a long term perspective.
- The chart shows that copper is hitting a new high.
- The up move over the last month is due to the threat of US tariffs.
- President Trump instructed the Commerce Department to look into copper tariffs on February 25th and produce a report within 270 days. It appears now that the Commerce Department is ready with the report.
- In The Arora Report analysis, copper tariffs may come within weeks, much earlier than expected.
- Copper futures on Comex hit a record of $5.37 per pound.
- Copper is important because the demand has been rising due to its use in AI data centers, electric vehicles, and more power production.
- In anticipation of tariffs, copper traders are importing huge amounts of copper into the United States.
- The largest publicly traded copper producer by market cap is Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX). FCX is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. In the Portfolio that surrounds the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, there is another copper position in First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FQVLF). FQVLF is also a buyout target. Earlier this morning, The Arora Report gave a new signal on copper producer Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB) due to its Florence Copper Project in Arizona; as of December 2024, the project was 56% complete. Being in the United States, Florence Copper Project will benefit from tariffs. The signal was given in ZYX Buy.
- Another big use of copper is in housing. If there is a recession, copper demand from housing will fall.
- Prudent investors should take a global perspective. China is the biggest consumer of copper.
- Consumer confidence fell to a four year low. Consumer confidence came in at 92.9 vs 93.5 consensus. As a reference, consumer confidence was 100.1 in February. A number below 80 is an indication of a recession.
- Durable orders data is strong.
- Durable orders came in at 0.9% vs -1.2% consensus.
- Durable orders – ex transport came at 0.7% vs 0.1% consensus.
- Market mechanics continue to be in control of the stock market. Please see the prior Morning Capsule for details.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOG), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and negative in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
Oil inventory data from API came at a draw of 4.6M barrels vs a consensus of a draw of 2.5M barrels. This data is bullish in the short term and bringing in buying. However, prudent investors should note that there is a counter balance — the US and Russia have reached a deal on a ceasefire in the Black Sea. The US is also likely to work to reduce or eliminate sanctions on Russian oil.
There are signals in oil in inverse oil ETF (SCO) in ZYX Buy and oil ETF (USO) in ZYX Short.
EIA oil inventory data is considered more authoritative. This data will be released at 10:30am ET.
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** oil in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5830 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926, 6017, and 6131: support levels are 5748, 5622, 5500.
DJIA futures are up 58 points.
Gold futures are at $3030, silver futures are at $34.37, and oil futures are at $69.57.
MARKET MECHANICS DRIVING STOCKS, TARIFFS WHIPSAW, AI DATA CENTER BUBBLE WARNING
Mar 25, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Market Mechanics Driving Stocks
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows that the stock market is slightly above the top band of support zone 1.
- The breakout line shown on the chart is now a magnet for Wall Street machines.
- The chart shows that the stock market is slightly above the 200 day moving average shown in yellow.
- A legion of investors buy when the market moves above the 200 day moving average and sell when the market moves below the 200 day moving average.
- As we have shared with you before, the 200 day moving average by itself has no power. The 200 day moving average derives its power from the widespread belief among less knowledgeable investors who rely solely on traditional technical analysis and do not do 360 degree analysis.
- Prudent investors should also be aware of an army of retail traders who are constantly buying and selling intraday at this time based on the 200 day moving average.
- RSI on the chart shows that the market has more room to move to the upside.
- The following market mechanics are in control and are the prime drivers of the stock market at this time:
- Window dressing
- Portfolio rebalancing
- Reduced hedge fund positioning
- A viscous short squeeze
- Even smart money is getting whipsawed with evolving announcements related to tariffs.
- Smart money sold when the administration shifted its stance on sectoral tariffs. The stance over the weekend was that there would not be sectoral tariffs or they would be delayed. Yesterday, the stance changed to sectoral tariffs are coming soon.
- Shortly after selling, smart money bought when President Trump said that he would give breaks to many countries on tariffs. The prior stance was that there would not be many breaks.
- Consumer confidence will be released at 10 am ET and may be market moving. Prudent investors should note the following:
- Consumer sentiment is very important because the US economy is 70% consumer based.
- Lately, consumer surveys have been showing consumer weakness.
- The hard data shows that the consumer has been borrowing and spending. Now, many consumers are reaching their borrowing limits.
- In the press conference last week, Powell outright dismissed consumer surveys. There is some merit to Powell’s thinking. As we have been sharing with you, consumers often say one thing and do another. However, investors should also note that the data from consumer surveys goes against the narrative Powell was trying to propagate.
- Prudent investors should pay attention to a new warning that a bubble is building in the United States in AI data center construction. The warning is coming from none other than Joe Tsai, the chairman of Alibaba.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
China
After a rip-roaring rally, Chinese stocks, notably AI stocks, are beginning to see money outflows.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Nvidia (NVDA) on the warning from Joe Tsai.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5831 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926, 6017, and 6131: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.
DJIA futures are up 91 points.
Gold futures are at $3023, silver futures are at $34.02, and oil futures are at $69.56.
DEPLOY CASH AND REDUCE HEDGES, POWERFUL MARKET MECHANICS AND TRUMP TARIFFS CONTROL THE STOCK MARKET
Mar 24, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Deploy Cash And Reduce Hedges
Please see the Protection Band and What To Do Now section below.
This change is primarily triggered by a combination of powerful market mechanics and President Trump’s tariff shift. Keep in mind that this change may need to be quickly reversed if President Trump changes his mind.
Powerful Market Mechanics
Please click here for a chart of Apple stock (AAPL).
Note the following:
- Powerful market mechanics and the Trump tariff shift are in control of the stock market.
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of AAPL is being used to illustrate the point.
- The chart shows a large move in AAPL stock in the closing minutes of the regular market session on Friday. The move up was due to large market on close orders. Large market on close orders, in turn, appear to be related to option expiration. Both market on close orders and option expiration are important market mechanics.
- This week, two powerful market mechanics are in control:
- Portfolio rebalancing
- Window dressing
- In The Arora Report analysis, quarter end rebalancing will bring in billions of dollars to buy stocks. In quarter end rebalancing, many money managers adjust the balance between stocks and bonds.
- In The Arora Report analysis, window dressing will also exert buying pressure on stocks. In window dressing, money managers buy winning stocks as well as popular stocks at the end of the quarter to show their clients in quarter end reports that they were holding winning and popular stocks.
- Next week, blind money will pour into the stock market. Blind money flows tend to be especially strong at the beginning of a quarter. Blind money is the money that flows into the stock market without any analysis and irrespective of market conditions.
- Deeply understanding market mechanics gives investors a big edge. Wall Street professionals keep important nuances close to the chest due to the very high value. The best way to learn about market mechanics, including important nuances, is to listen to podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club.
- President Trump has declared April 2 as Liberation Day. Trump appears to have shifted his strategy for Liberation Day. It now appears that Trump will not announce industry specific tariffs on April 2 – this is different from previous expectations. Most important are cars and chips – they may not see tariffs on April 2. Reciprocal tariffs are expected to be announced on April 2.
- As a heads up, in The Arora Report analysis, the U.S. systems for customs and the systems of private shippers are not ready to properly handle all of the complexities of new tariffs. Paradoxically, when the stock market discovers this, it may lead to more buying as investors will like the delays in tariff implementation.
- If the buying continues, those following traditional technical analysis will get a buy signal and jump in.
- In spite of the foregoing positives, the stock market is still overvalued and there are significant risks in the short term related to the current administration’s policies.
- Further, after the first two days of April, some selling may come in as many investors will sell stocks to raise cash to pay taxes.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and AAPL.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying along with tech stocks.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5787 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926, 6017, and 6131: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.
DJIA futures are up 412 points.
Gold futures are at $3030, silver futures are at $33.69, and oil futures are at $68.429.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.
Dr. Natasha Arora
Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.
