By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report. 

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

HEDGES TURN VERY PROFITABLE, GOOD JOBS REPORT, CHINA RETALIATES

Apr 4, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Hedges Turn Very Profitable

Hedges have turned very profitable.  The strategic portfolios have been protected with different kinds of hedges.

• There have been overall portfolio hedges plus cash that has protected up to 57% coming into the stock market dip. Now, partial profits have been taken.  Coming into this morning, the protection band stood at up to 50%.  Now after more profit taking, the protection band will stand at up to 47%.
• Hedges on individual positions
• Precious metals, including gold and silver, up to 8%
• Short positions in ZYX Short

Those who are members of all four services and were conservative came in with a combined protection of over 80% into this stock market dip.

It is time to take some profits on hedges.

• Short term portfolio level hedges are being reduced.  Those who had up to 8% portfolio level short term hedges may consider taking profits on 3%.
• Consider taking partial profits on hedges on the following positions: NVDA, ADI, AMAT, INTC, JPM, META, MU, MSFT, NXPI, QCOM, TMUS, AIQ, HACK, IGV, IYW, and SMH.  The process of taking partial profits on hedges is similar to taking partial profits on positions.  Please see Trade Management Guidelines. Please carefully note that profits are not being taken on some individual hedges, such as those on AAPL.  

There will be a separate post on portfolio hedges.

Good Jobs Report

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that the prior support zone 1 has now turned into a resistance zone.
• The chart shows that earlier this morning the stock market approached the low band of support zone 2.  This is a logical place for the stock market to bounce. As of this writing, a bounce is exactly what is happening.
• RSI on the chart shows the stock market has become very oversold.  Oversold markets tend to bounce.
• The chart shows that the drop yesterday was on higher volume.  This indicates that the momo crowd is finally booking losses.  In The Arora Report analysis, most of these losses are being taken due to margin calls.  The volume is not high enough to indicate capitulation.  Other signs of capitulation are also missing.  If the stock market bounces from here, it will be without capitulation.  The market bouncing without capitulation typically does not form an enduring bottom.  For those who want next level information, listen to the podcast titled “THE TEN SECRETS OF EPIC CAPITULATION RICHES” in Arora Ambassador Club.
• This morning, the stock market plunged when China announced 34% retaliatory tariffs.
• Yesterday evening, President Trump indicated that he is open to negotiations if other countries offer phenomenal deals.  This is contrary to what other cabinet members said yesterday.
• In The Arora Report analysis, President Trump’s statement would have helped the stock market rally, but China retaliating gives a cover for other countries to retaliate.  This was the main reason for the plunge this morning.
• The stock market started rallying from its lows on a good jobs report.  Here are the details:
  • Nonfarm payrolls came at 228K vs. 130K consensus.
  • Nonfarm private payrolls came at 209K vs. 120K consensus.
  • Average hourly earnings came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Average work week came at 34.2 hours vs. 34.2 hours consensus.
  • Unemployment rate came at 4.2% vs. 4.1% consensus.
• In The Arora Report analysis, the jobs report is not as good as it seems on the surface.  There are many issues with this jobs report. To illustrate the point, here are two examples:
  • The jobs report claims that only 4K federal employees have been laid off.  Everyone knows that this is not true.  It appears that the anomaly has to do with the timing of the survey.
  • The prior jobs number has been revised down to 117K from 151K. 
• In The Arora Report analysis, the stock market rallied from the lows on the belief that all of the uncertainty caused by tariffs has not seeped into the real economy yet.  
• In The Arora Report analysis, the foregoing market belief is wrong because the stock market is not paying attention to details below the surface of the jobs report.  You can not really blame the market because the jobs report was released at 8:30am ET and there has not been enough time for an average analyst to grasp the details.  Having said that, the fastest guns are already reaching the conclusion we are sharing with you in this Morning Capsule.   
• Fed Chair Powell will speak at 11:25am ET.  At The Arora Report, we will be carefully listening to see if the Fed is planning an emergency rate cut.  Powell’s speech is likely to be market moving.  
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the protection band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  However, note the market has recovered significantly from its morning lows as of this writing.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5296 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5400, 5500, and 5622: support levels are 5256, 5210, and 5020.

DJIA futures are down 1067 points.

Gold futures are at $3101, silver futures are at $30.77, and oil futures are at $61.85.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

TARIFFS WILL PROVIDE GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN LONG TERM – INVESTORS MUST FIRST CROSS STAGFLATION CHASM

Apr 3, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Great Buying Opportunity Ahead

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows the stock market has barely broken below the low band of support zone 1.   If the stock market continues lower, support zone 1 will become a resistance zone.
• The chart shows a positive RSI divergence.  This indicates the internal momentum of the stock market is not as negative as the price indicates.  This is a positive.
• On April 1, we shared with you:

• In The Arora Report analysis, how the market behaves after Trump’s reveal will come down to the difference between expectations about tariffs that are built into the market and what Trump reveals.

  • If the tariffs Trump reveals are less onerous than market expectations, the stock market will go up.

  • If the tariffs Trump reveals are more onerous than market expectations, the stock market will go down.

• The tariffs President Trump imposed are worse than market expectations.
• In The Arora Report analysis, the tariffs President Trump imposed may raise about $700B.  Market expectations were for $200B – $300B.  
• In The Arora Report analysis, these tariffs, if sustained, will provide a great buying opportunity in the long term, but first, investors must cross the stagflation chasm.  
• Investors should think in terms of four separate buckets:
  • Long term strategic positions
  • Tactical positions
  • Hedges
  • Short term trades
• It is not appropriate to start any strategic positions at this time from the long side.  Tentatively, if the stock market reaches support zone 2 shown on the chart, that may be a time to  start thinking about strategic positions.  The ideal time to start strategic positions will be if the stock market goes into support zone 3 shown on the chart.
• Will the stock market go to support zones 2 and 3?  This will depend on President Trump and the Fed.  Here are the two key questions:
  • Now that President Trump has taken the big step of imposing tariffs, will he have the nerve to sustain them?
  • Will the Fed have the spine to do the right thing by not significantly lowering interest rates.
• In The Arora Report analysis, in the longer term, if these tariffs are sustained and other countries retaliate, stagflation will likely take hold and the stock market will go lower.  If capitulation occurs, from a longer term perspective, that will be a buying opportunity for strategic positions.  For those who want more information on capitulation, there is a podcast titled “THE TEN SECRETS OF EPIC CAPITULATION RICHES” in Arora Ambassador Club.
• The Arora Report portfolios are well situated based on 360 degree analysis using the adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.  Many individual positions are hedged.  Here is a great example of how members of The Arora Report are already ahead of the curve.
  • The latest increase in hedges on Apple (AAPL) were on February 5 and March 4. On March 4, we wrote:

In Trump’s first administration, Apple was able to get a carve out for China tariffs.  As of this writing, it appears that there is no carve out for Apple at this time.

• • Apple has been trying to diversify its manufacturing outside China in India and Vietnam.  This has not turned out for Apple as it had imagined – tariffs are 54% on China, 46% on VIetnam, and 26% on India.  In The Arora Report analysis, the impact of tariffs on Apple will be over $30B.  If Apple decides to raise prices by about $10B and takes a $20B hit, Apple earnings will be cut by about 15%.
• At the high end, the protection band protects up to 50% of long term portfolios.  As of today, the protection band is not being raised for five reasons:
  • It is not known how the Fed will react.  If the Fed decides to make an emergency rate cut, the stock market may rally.  In The Arora Report analysis, such a move on the Fed’s part would be very unwise and add to stagflationary pressures, instead of relieving them.  If the Fed cuts rates and there is a rally, the tentative plan is to use the rally to add to the protection band.  
  • Prudent investors should pay attention to Treasury Secretary Bessent’s statement that the tariffs are the “high water mark” unless other countries retaliate.  Bessent is taking a “wait and see” approach.  In The Arora Report analysis, investors should ignore the rhetoric coming out of other countries and instead look at the meat of what other countries do.  For example, to date, China has had very strong rhetoric, but the meat of China’s response has been very weak.  Protection band changes will depend on the response from other countries.
  • Momo gurus are urging their followers to buy the dip.  If the momo crowd buys and smart money does not sell, there is potential for a bounce.  The potential for a bounce cannot be ignored.
  • President Trump’s tax cuts, large cost reduction, and deregulation are ahead.  All three of these will be positive and may cause sharp rallies.
  • Positive RSI divergence shown on the chart.
• Initial jobless claims came at 219K vs. 224K consensus. Today, this data is being overshadowed by tariffs.
• ISM Services Index will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
• The jobs report, known as the mother of all numbers, will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and AAPL.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd *** in stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the protection band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.   This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is taking a major hit.     

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5491 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5622, 5748, and 5926: support levels are 5400, 5256, and 5210.

DJIA futures are down 1221 points.

Gold futures are at $3094, silver futures are at $32.15, and oil futures are at $66.77.

GOLD OUTSHINES TECH STOCKS AND BITCOIN AS BULLS AND BEARS BATTLE AHEAD OF TRUMP TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENT

Apr 2, 2025

Gold Outshines

Please click here for a chart comparing Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX), bitcoin ETF (IBIT), and gold ETF (GLD).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that for this volatile period since the peak in tech stocks, gold has outperformed as follows:
  • Gold has outperformed SPY by 15.02%.
  • Gold has outperformed QQQ, which represents tech stocks, by 18.13%.
  • Gold has outperformed bitcoin ETF (IBIT) by 19.93%.
• Gold ETF (GLD) is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.  In the Core Model Portfolio, allocation to GLD has been 5% – 8%.   In the Lower Exposure Model Portfolio, the allocation to GLD has been 4% – 6%.   In addition, there is also a GLD trade around position in ZYX Allocation.   Further, The Arora Report’s gold ratings along with gold allocation is popular among investors, hedge funds, jewelers, and bullion dealers across the globe – the allocation to precious metals has been 5% – 8% of the portfolio.  The gold ratings and allocation can be accessed from the main menu of the Real Time Feed.
• As a reference, allocation to bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has been 0% – 2% in ZYX Allocation Core Model Portfolio and 0% in the Lower Exposure Model Portfolio.  Further, partial profits have been taken three times on IBIT, leaving only a very small position in the Model Portfolio.
• For the period shown on the chart, bitcoin volatility is about 300% that of gold.  Prudent investors focus on risk adjusted returns.  Risk adjusted returns on bitcoin must be significantly higher than gold to match the return in gold.
• The chart is also very instructive in that Wall Street’s consensus at the beginning of the chart period was the total opposite of what has happened.  
• President Trump is scheduled to make a tariff announcement today at 4pm ET.
• A battle royale has been raging between stock market bulls and bears ahead of President Trump’s announcement.  Yesterday, stock market bulls got the upper hand, aided by blind money.  In the early trade this morning, stock market bears have the upper hand.  It is worth repeating what we shared with you yesterday:

• There are divergent opinions on how the stock market will behave after Trump reveals his tariff plan on Liberation Day.
  • Permabulls are expecting a rip-roaring rally and urging their followers to aggressively buy stocks.
  • Permabears are expecting a big market drop.
• In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should ignore both the permabulls and the permabears.
• In The Arora Report analysis, how the market behaves after Trump’s reveal will come down to the difference between expectations about tariffs that are built into the market and what Trump reveals.
  • If the tariffs Trump reveals are less onerous than market expectations, the stock market will go up.
  • If the tariffs Trump reveals are more onerous than market expectations, the stock market will go down.

• The latest ISM manufacturing data shows stagflation – growth is slowing and prices are rising.  ISM Manufacturing Index came at 49.0% vs. 49.8% consensus.  More importantly, Prices Paid Index came at 69.4 vs. 64 consensus.  As a reference, the index was at 62.4 in February.  Investors need to take time now to learn about stagflation as stagflation is a scrooge that can drain your portfolio.  To help investors learn, membership in Arora Ambassador Club has been opened up.  Today is the last day membership is open.  If you are interested, please write to ambassador@TheAroraReport.com.  
• ADP is the largest private payroll processor in the country.  ADP uses its data to provide a glimpse of the official jobs report, the mother of all reports, that will be released on Friday at 8:30am ET.  The just released ADP employment change came at 155K vs. 120K consensus.   This indicates that the jobs picture remains strong.
• As we have shared with you before, prudent investors need to be aware that jobs data can deteriorate very quickly.  It is important to stay alert.  Prudent investors should also keep in mind that ADP data does not include government employees.
• Tesla (TSLA) delivery data impacts stock market sentiment.  For this reason, prudent investors should pay attention to Tesla delivery data.  Tesla produced over 362K vehicles vs. over 412K consensus and delivered over 336K vehicles vs. over 378K consensus and whisper numbers of around 360K.  As of this writing in the premarket, these numbers are negatively impacting stock market sentiment.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 6.037M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5620 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5748, 5926, and 6017: support levels are 5500, 5400, and 5256.

DJIA futures are down 290 points.

Gold futures are at $3162, silver futures are at $34.62, and oil futures are at $70.97.

HERE IS HOW THE STOCK MARKET WILL MOVE AFTER TRUMP’S TARIFF REVEAL ON LIBERATION DAY

Apr 1, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Trump Reveal Ahead

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

• The chart of QQQ is important because it mostly represents tech stocks.
• The chart shows that the rally from the March 11 low failed before reaching the top band of the resistance zone.  This is a negative.
• The chart shows that QQQ failed at the 200 day moving average.  To the legions of investors who believe in the power of the 200 day moving average, this is a negative.
• The chart shows yesterday’s low decisively undercut the March 11 low.  This is a negative.
• Stops of those who follow traditional technical analysis were taken out at the open yesterday.  Smart money consistently picks the pockets of those following traditional technical analysis. The Arora Report has aligned its systems with smart money.  Consider using stop zones and target zones given in the Real Time Feeds instead of basing stops on traditional technical analysis.
• RSI on the chart is showing a positive divergence.  In plain English, this means that the internal momentum of tech stocks is not as negative now as it was when tech stocks were higher.  This is a positive.  Many momo gurus are citing the positive RSI divergence to persuade their followers to buy stocks.
• The chart shows the dramatic reversal yesterday from the lows.  The dramatic reversal to the upside was due to market mechanics.  The two market mechanics most responsible for the move up from the lows were quarter end rebalancing and short squeeze.
• There is another market mechanic at play today.  Blind money will pour into Wall Street.  Blind money is the money that pours in on the first day of the month without any analysis and irrespective of market conditions.  Blind money flows are especially strong on the first two days of a new quarter.
• Tomorrow is Liberation Day.  President Trump has decided on a plan, but he has not revealed it.  Presumably the plan will be released tomorrow on Liberation Day.  However, prudent investors need to keep in mind that President Trump is unpredictable, and he may release the plan earlier.  Or, there may be leaks and rumors that move the market.
• There are divergent opinions on how the stock market will behave after Trump reveals his tariff plan on Liberation Day.
  • Permabulls are expecting a rip-roaring rally and urging their followers to aggressively buy stocks.
  • Permabears are expecting a big market drop.
• In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should ignore both the permabulls and the permabears.
• In The Arora Report analysis, how the market behaves after Trump’s reveal will come down to the difference between expectations about tariffs that are built into the market and what Trump reveals.
  • If the tariffs Trump reveals are less onerous than market expectations, the stock market will go up.
  • If the tariffs Trump reveals are more onerous than market expectations, the stock market will go down.
• In the early trade, stocks are trading lower as the buying pressure from rebalancing goes away.  Blind money is mostly invested in the afternoon.  There is some buying in the early trade as Wall Street tries to front run and profit from blind money.  Often, Wall Street traders buy in the morning at lower prices and then sell to blind money at higher prices in the afternoon.  However, such buying this morning is somewhat muted due to the risk of tariff rumors and leaks.
• ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS job openings will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5641 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5748, 5926, and 6017: support levels are 5622, 5500, and 5400..

DJIA futures are down 128 points.

Gold futures are at $3164, silver futures are at $34.72, and oil futures are at $71.53.

STAGFLATION RISK RISES – PREPARE TO CLOSE THE BARN DOOR BEFORE THE HORSE BOLTS, APPLE’S AI DOCTOR

Mar 31, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Stagflation Risk Rises

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that this morning the stock market is again approaching the low band of support zone 1.
• The chart shows that the rally from recent lows failed just after crossing the 200 day moving average.  When the stock market crossed above the 200 day moving average, legions of investors who believe in the myth of the 200 day moving average turned bullish.  Those investors have now been whipsawed.
• The chart shows that the stock market is now retesting the recent lows.  Retesting the recent lows is quite common.  The real question is will the retest succeed or fail.
• Momo gurus claim to already know the answer to the question.  Momo gurus are contending that the retest will be successful and the stock market will launch a new rally.  Prudent investors should keep in mind that momo gurus are wrong most of the time and momo gurus’ real job is to persuade their followers to buy stocks.
• RSI on the chart shows the stock market has lost internal momentum.  There is room for the stock market to go lower.
• If it was not for aggressive buying due to market mechanics, this morning the stock market would have likely broken below support zone 1, falling rapidly towards support zone 2.  Market mechanics continue to be to the upside with one exception.  The exception is that if the stock market falls more going into 10am ET, expect many momo crowd accounts to be hit with margin calls.
  • Expect quarter end rebalancing money flows to be very positive the rest of the day.
• Along with other data we have been sharing with you, the economic data released Friday related to University of Michigan consumer sentiment as well as the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge PCE is highly concerning.   Please see Friday’s Morning and Afternoon Capsules for details.
• The data from last week indicates stagflation.  It is important for prudent investors to not get carried away based on data from only one week.  It is important to wait for more data.  In the meantime, it is important for investors to start learning about stagflation urgently.
• It is important to learn to close the barn door before the horse bolts.  There is potential for the data to turn nasty very quickly.  If the data turns nasty and stagflation is sustained, a vast majority of investors will lose a significant amount of money.  The reason is that by the time they recognize what is happening, the horse would have already bolted and it would be too late to close the barn door.  
• Closing the barn door is one of the most difficult tasks investors face.  This is the reason it is very important to start learning how to close the barn door now.  
• Here are the reasons closing the barn door is difficult:
  • The only example of stagflation is from the 1970’s and 1980’s.
  • If stagflation occurs now, it will be very different from the stagflation of the 1970’s and 1980’s.
  • In the public domain, there is a ton of information on stagflation – unfortunately, it is all driven by the experience of the 1970’s and 1980’s.  There is nothing good out there that credibly looks forward to a totally different kind of stagflation that we may experience.  Moreover, there is a lot of good theory out there, but there is almost nothing that in a practical way can guide investors.
  • The current deficit  and national debt will make it very difficult to tackle stagflation if it persists.  Keep in mind that when unfunded liabilities are taken into account, the national debt now stands at $1.34M for every household in the U.S.
• At The Arora Report, we are working on models to not let the scrooge of stagflation drain your portfolios, and at the same time, enhance your wealth.  The difficulty is that the investments that will protect your portfolio from stagflation are precisely the investments that will be hurt if President Trump continues with the current policies.  This makes learning in advance even more critical.  
• To benefit investors, an example from 2007 is in order.  In 2007 when Wall Street was ultra-bullish, The Arora Report call was that a crash was coming.  In the 2008 great financial crash, the S&P 500 lost 50% of its value, and most portfolios lost 70% – 80% of their value.  The Arora Report’s protection band was at 100%.  Through the judicious use of inverse ETFs, tactical trades, and short selling, The Arora Report produced returns of 40+%.  The Arora Report is not predicting a crash at this time.  However, the reference of 2007 is important because with the same signals from The Arora Report, the individual performance of members differed dramatically.  Those who built up their knowledge quickly understood The Arora Report’s signals, followed them, and did well.  Those who did not build up their knowledge received the signals, did not follow them, and suffered losses.  
• Based on the 2007 experience, in order to help all members of The Arora Report build their knowledge, especially since there is nothing  in the public domain that guides investors in a practical manner looking forward, we are taking an unusual step.  We are opening up Arora Ambassador Club to new members, but only for two more days.   If you are interested, please write to ambassador@TheAroraReport.com.  There is a podcast series titled “Stagflation: Buffett’s Portfolio” that analyzes all 41 stocks in Warren Buffett’s portfolio in the context of modern day stagflation.  This podcast series gives investors practical guidance.  More podcasts on stagflation will be forthcoming.
• In The Arora Report analysis, here are the current probabilities:
  • The probability of stagflation if President Trump continues with present policies is at 70%.  Keep in mind that many of President Trump’s policies are good for the stock market in the long term.  It is the short to medium term that is a problem for the stock market.  At The Arora Report, our objective is to help you protect your portfolio and take advantage of the dislocations to be well positioned for the long term.  
  • The probability of a recession is at 40%.  
  • The probability of a depression is at 5%. 
• Apple (AAPL) is working on an AI doctor.  Apple is looking to recruit celebrity doctors.  How AAPL stock responds to this news will be one of the tells of the stock market’s sentiment.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and AAPL.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** gold in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5575 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5622, 5748, and 5926: support levels are 5500, 5400, and 5256.

DJIA futures are down 278 points.

Gold futures are at $3153, silver futures are at $34.72, and oil futures are at $69.71.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.