WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

April 26, 2025

By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

APPLE, GOOGLE, AND TESLA HELP THE SENTIMENT AS TECH STOCKS APPROACH PRE-LIBERATION DAY CLOSE

Apr 25, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Sentiment Boost

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

The chart shows that the blistering rally yesterday brought tech stocks close to the pre-Liberation Day close.
The pre-Liberation Day close is shown on the chart in cyan.
In The Arora Report analysis, a big part of the blistering rally shown on the chart yesterday was a short squeeze.
The Arora Report algorithms are showing that this leg of the short squeeze is near an end. Unless there is a new leg of short squeeze or new news, tech stocks may pull back.
Here is the key question for prudent investors: As tech stocks recover most of the losses since Liberation Day, have the macro risks also proportionately returned to the same levels as pre-Liberation Day?
The answer to the above question is the macro risks are much higher now than before Liberation Day.
Helping the sentiment in tech stocks is news from Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), and Tesla (TSLA).
- Apple is going to produce most iPhones in India by 2026. In The Arora Report analysis, the stock market is only focused on the positive aspects here, but ignoring that about 20% of Apple sales in China are now at a higher risk – Apple is infuriating China by moving production to India.
- Alphabet reported earnings better than the consensus and whisper numbers. Most important is that profits from search advertising have held up. Right now, investors are focused on the positives, but ignoring that Google’s search market share has decreased. The market is ignoring the threat Google search faces from the likes of ChatGPT. The anecdotal evidence is that more educated people are using Google less and AI chatbots more. Google is making some progress with its own AI chatbot but not enough to offset the existential threat.
- The U.S. will relax some self-driving regulations that Tesla CEO Elon Musk has criticized. This will be helpful to Tesla.
Positive for AI stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), Vertiv (VRT), Marvell (MRVL), Broadcom (AVGO), and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is that Google is indicating a capex of $75B for FY25.
On the negative side, Intel (INTC) guides Q2 below consensus after reporting better than consensus earnings and revenues for Q1.
On the trade front, there are two positive developments:
- Both the U.S. and India are working towards India potentially being the first country to sign a trade deal.
- Trade progress has been made with South Korea, and South Korea may be right behind India with a trade deal.
A big part of the rally yesterday was President Trump saying he had talks with China. President Trump refused to say who the talks were with and what was discussed. However, China has denied that it is in talks with the U.S. The stock market believed President Trump and ignored China’s denial.
The Chinese embassy has just come out stating that there are no tariff talks with the U.S. and the U.S. should stop creating confusion.
Adding to the positive sentiment this morning is that China may exempt some important U.S. goods from tariffs. The reason appears to be economic as the cost of some of these goods have risen too much.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

A New War Risk

India claims that a terrorist attack in the state of Kashmir was carried out by Pakistanis with support from Pakistan’s government. Pakistan denies the claim.

Among other measures, India has put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance. The treaty governs how water is distributed from the rivers that flow through India to Pakistan.

India has taken an unprecedented step. In the past, even during times of war between the two countries, India did not suspend the Indus Waters Treaty.

Investors need to keep in mind that both India and Pakistan possess substantial nuclear arsenals.

Even though the stock market is oblivious at this time, the situation has the potential to increase global risk.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), NVDA, GOOG, and TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Microsoft (MSFT) and AAPL.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying. There is a new narrative developing – bitcoin is low beta when tech stocks go down and a higher beta when tech stocks go up. The recent data supports this narrative. In The Arora Report analysis, if this data holds up going forward, it will be positive for bitcoin.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5502 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5622, 5748, and 5926: support levels are 5400, 5256, and 5210.

DJIA futures are down 169 points.

Gold futures are at $3305, silver futures are at $33.27, and oil futures are at $61.93.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

HERE IS THE GAME PLAN – PRESIDENT XI TAKES ADVANTAGE OF PRESIDENT TRUMP’S PAIN POINT

Apr 24, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Game Plan For Investors

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows on April 21 the stock market fell and touched the low band of support zone 2. The fact that the stock market bounced after touching the low band of support zone 2 is a positive in the short term. If the stock market had broken the low band of support zone 2 that would have been a negative.
The red candle on the chart yesterday shows the stock market was running up and close to its eventual high for the day when selling came in, resulting in the stock market pulling back.
As a member of The Arora Report, you already knew before the market open when the stock market was still running up and close to its eventual high for the day that this would likely happen as you read in the Morning Capsule:

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but there is a high probability that after the initial wave of aggressive buying is over, selling may come in to take advantage of the strength.

The foregoing illustrates why The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short term indicator is popular among investors.
As a member of The Arora Report, you were prepared for a scenario where China’s President Xi takes advantage of President Trump’s pain point. Please read prior Morning Capsules for details. The Arora Report analysis we shared with you on April 11 has now proven spot on. We wrote:

In The Arora Report analysis, the tariff reversal has now exposed President Trump’s pain threshold to foreign leaders. Foreign leaders will take advantage of this knowledge by taking a tougher stand in negotiations with the U.S. on trade.

Now, China is taking advantage of President Trump’s pain point.
Yesterday morning, the stock market rallied after Trump made overtures to China and significantly softened his stance. The markets were expecting China to eagerly embrace President Trump’s significant backtracking and come running to offer a deal.
In the early trade, the rally is losing more steam as China said there are no talks on reaching a deal. Unlike President Trump’s warm approach to China, the Chinese response is harsh. The U.S. is considering dramatically slashing China tariffs to persuade China to come to the table.
After analyzing statements coming from Chinese officials, in The Arora Report analysis, President Xi of China is betting that Trump will back down to save face.
In The Arora Report analysis, if President Xi is proven right that President Trump will back down to save face, it will be a big negative for the U.S. economy and the stock market in the long term. As a heads up, in such a scenario, The Arora Report call will be four-fold:
- More tactical trades and less strategic investments
- More allocation to safe havens
- More international diversification
- Buy Chinese stocks
In the event of the foregoing, the momo crowd is not going to think ahead, and they will likely buy extremely aggressively, which will lead to a short term rip roaring rally. As a heads up, The Arora Report plan will be to take advantage of the rally with tactical trades first and sell when such a rally starts showing exhaustion.
On the other hand, if President Trump holds his nerve, in The Arora Report analysis, after short term pain, a golden age will dawn for the U.S. economy and the stock market. In such a scenario, The Arora Report call will be:
- More strategic investments in the U.S.
- Fewer tactical trades
- Smaller allocation to safe havens
- Smaller allocation to international investments
As powerful as President Xi is, he also has his weak points – rising debt, low consumer confidence, and 20 million people working in factors that primarily export to the U.S.
The situation is likely to stay fluid with a wide range of outcomes possible. The best course of action for investors is to stay tuned to the Morning Capsules and the Arora Protection Band.
The Treasury auction yesterday was mixed. Here are the results:
- $70B 5-year Treasury note auction results
- High yield: 3.995% (When-Issued: 4.005%)
- Bid-to-cover: 2.41
- Indirect bid: 64.0%
- Direct bid: 24.8%
To learn how to read Treasury auction results, listen to the podcast titled “Treasury Auction Data: Ignore The Most Popular.”
Initial jobless claims came at 222K vs. 220K consensus.
Durable goods is a very volatile series. In The Arora Report analysis, the just released durable goods data is skewed by a 139% increase in non-defense aircraft parts and orders. Here are the details:
- Durable goods came at 9.2% vs. 1.5% consensus.
- Durable goods ex-transportation came at 0.0% vs. 0.3% consensus.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5405 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5500, 5622, and 5748: support levels are 5256, 5210, and 5020.

DJIA futures are down 107 points.

Gold futures are at $3351, silver futures are at $33.38, and oil futures are at $63.14.

THE REAL REASON TRUMP WALKED BACK FROM THE BRINK, TESLA BULLS ENERGIZED, INTEL CUTS

Apr 23, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Pay Attention

Treasury Secretary Bessent will be speaking at 10am ET about “the status of the system.” There are indications that this is not another ordinary speech. There is a high probability that Bessent may signal something big. Historically, when Treasury Secretaries speak about the state of the system, it typically lays the groundwork for something big. Investors may consider becoming familiar with the 1985 Plaza Accord. The 1985 Plaza Accord was an agreement to change the relationship between currencies. As an example of the consequences of the Accord, Japanese yen rose from about 240 to 120 yen per dollar by 1987.

The speech may not be impactful, but it is better to be forewarned.

Walk Back From The Brink

Please click here for a chart of 20+ year bond ETF (TLT).

Note the following:

The chart shows that TLT was staying below zone 3.
The chart shows the recent rally in bonds after President Trump paused reciprocal tariffs failed.
The chart shows that the rally did not even reach the top band of zone 3 before failing. This indicated high stress in the bond market.
The chart shows that bonds were back in the danger zone ahead of the all important $70B 5 year Treasury auction today.
In The Arora report analysis, without President Trump walking back from the brink, there was real danger for the auction today to go poorly and push bonds into zone 4 shown on the chart.
As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve as you knew that the bond market was President Trump’s pain point.
President Trump walked back from the brink:
- President Trump said he did not intend to fire Fed Chair Powell.
- President Trump said soothing things about China.
- Earlier in the day yesterday, Bessent had laid the groundwork, indicating that the situation with China should de-escalate over time.
Immediately after President Trump’s comment about not firing Powell, extremely aggressive buying came in the markets.
- Stocks sharply rose in the after hours.
- Bonds rose.
- Oil rose.
- Dollar rose.
- Yen fell.
- Gold fell.
The reason the yen and gold fell was because after President Trump’s walk back, there is less need for safe havens.
Earlier in the afternoon, prior to President Trump’s walk back, The Arora Report had given signals to take partial profits on gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner Newmont (NEM). With the benefit of hindsight, these calls now seem prescient, but only time will tell how good these calls were.
Tesla (TSLA) stock is very popular among retail investors. Moves in TSLA stock impact sentiment. After hours, Tesla reported dismal earnings – the worst in a long time. Aggressive buying came into TSLA stock when CEO Elon Musk said he would be spending less time on DOGE and more time on his businesses. This comment from Musk energized Tesla bulls and added to the positive sentiment in the stock market that had started minutes earlier from President Trump’s statement.
Adding to the positive sentiment is that India may consider zero tariffs on Harley-Davidson (HOG) bikes. Musk is also thinking of expanding into India.
There was considerable Fed speak yesterday. Normally, we would have shared with you the important points from the Fed speak in this morning’s Capsule. However, President Trump’s comments have rendered the Fed speak meaningless.
Investors should pay careful attention to the results of the Treasury auction today.
The Fed’s Beige Book will be released today at 2pm ET.
A 20% staff cut at a big company is draconian. Yet, this is exactly what the new CEO at Intel (INTC) is doing. Investors love layoffs. Unfazed by the misery of those who are laid off, investors are cold hearted. Investors believe the bigger the layoff the better. Money is flowing into INTC stock on the news.
Adding to the positive sentiment are good earnings from Boeing (BA), AT&T (T), GE Vernova (GEV), Boston Scientific (BSX), and SAP (SAP).
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), and TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is extremely *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a draw of 4.565M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing aggressive buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5453 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5500, 5622, and 5748: support levels are 5400, 5256, and 5210.

DJIA futures are up 729 points.

Gold futures are at $3324, silver futures are at $32.87, and oil futures are at $63.23.

AMAZON DEBUNKS RUMOR THAT HURT NVIDIA; GOLD HITS $3500, YEN HITS 140; STOCKS BOUNCE ON INDIA TALKS

Apr 22, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Safe Havens

Please click here for a chart of gold ETF (GLD).

Note the following:

The weekly chart shows the longer term big picture of the safe haven gold.
The chart shows gold has gone parabolic. Gold hit a record $3500 before pulling back.
Gold and Japanese yen are considered safe havens. Money is rushing into these safe havens. Yen hit the psychologically important level of 140. There are positions in gold ETF (GLD) and yen ETF (FXY) in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolios.
Money is flowing into safe havens as foreign investors lose faith in the U.S. dollar. The dollar has been the reserve currency of the world, which is one of the reasons for the U.S.’s prosperity. It has allowed the U.S. to borrow and spend recklessly. The national debt stands at $36.7T, not including unfunded liabilities. Including unfunded liabilities such as social security and Medicare, the debt stands at over $1.34 million for every household in the U.S.
Right now, the stock market is a prisoner of news on trade talks. In The Arora Report analysis, stock market bulls are overly optimistic in their assertion that trade agreements will be reached very quickly. In The Arora Report analysis, it is going to be a mixture of progress and delays.
In The Arora Report analysis, the stock market can significantly rally on trade deals.
From this morning, there are two great examples illustrating the foregoing point.
- Thailand Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra announced trade talks with Thailand, originally scheduled for April 23, have been delayed. A set of issues remains to be resolved.
- Stock futures are reversing to buying in the early trade on positive news of “significant progress” in India trade talks. Vice President JD Vance met with India Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Vance said, “We believe a stronger India means greater economic prosperity, but also greater stability across the Indo- Pacific, which is, of course, a shared goal for all of us.
In addition to studying ways to fire Fed Chair Powell, there are signals from the White House that President Trump is planning to undercut the Federal Reserve, bringing its legitimacy into question, if Powell does not cut interest rates. The Fed rate decision will be announced on May 7.
A flurry of Fed speak is ahead today that may provide investors with insights. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson is speaking at 9am ET. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker is speaking at 9:30am ET. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is speaking at 1:40pm ET. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin is speaking at 2:30pm ET. Governor Adriana Kugler is speaking at 6pm ET.
Adding to the positive sentiment this morning is that Amazon (AMZN) has debunked a rumor that hurt Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), Micron (MU), Broadcom (AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and other AI stocks yesterday. The rumor was that Amazon was pulling back on AI infrastructure. Amazon has denied the rumor.
Tesla (TSLA) earnings are ahead after the regular session close. Due to the popularity of TSLA stock with retail investors, moves in TSLA stock impact stock market sentiment.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5239 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5256, 5400, and 5500: support levels are 5210, 5020, and 4918.

DJIA futures are up 416 points.

Gold futures are at $3446, silver futures are at $32.63, and oil futures are at $63.32.

SELLING ON THREAT TO POWELL – DOLLAR, STOCKS, AND BONDS FALL; GOLD AND YEN RISE

Apr 21, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Fed Independence

Please click here for a chart of the dollar index (DXY).

Note the following:

The chart also shows gold ETF (GLD), Japanese currency yen ETF (FXY), S&P 500 ETF (SPY), and 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).
The chart shows the dollar is falling.
The falling dollar is leading foreigners to sell bonds. The chart shows bond ETF TLT is falling.
Falling bonds are leading to a selloff in stocks in the early trade. The chart shows S&P 500 ETF SPY is falling.
Investors are rushing to buy gold. The chart shows gold ETF GLD is rising.
The chart shows the Japanese yen is rising as many investors see yen as a safe haven.
Gold ETF GLD and Japanese yen ETF FXY are in ZYX Allocation Model Portfolios.
The foregoing chain reaction was triggered by the Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett saying that President Trump is studying how to fire Fed Chair Powell.
There is a serious legal question regarding the potential firing of Fed Chair Powell.
At this time, it is very important for investors to understand how decisions are being made in the White House and how the Supreme Court is making decisions when the administration’s actions are challenged. For those who want to understand how decisions are being made with an example of the recent pause on reciprocal tariffs and the Supreme Court’s pause on deporting Venezuelan immigrants under the Alien Enemies Act, listen to the podcast titled “Prepare For Potential Trump-Powell Panic” that will be released shortly in Arora Ambassador Club.
In The Arora Report analysis, if Powell is fired, this is how the markets will likely react:
- The dollar may go lower.
- Bonds may go lower.
- Gold may go higher.
- Japanese yen may go higher.
- It is unclear how stocks would react. The reaction in the stock market will come down to who wins the battle:
  - Foreigners and smart money will likely be the sellers.
  - The momo crowd will likely be buying.
On the positive side, President Trump is working on several trade deals. In The Arora Report analysis, the announcement of trade deals can potentially bring significant buying into the stock market.
As a member of The Arora Report you were ahead of the curve. In the Interim Capsule on Friday, we wrote:

There is a report that President Trump is privately considering firing Powell and replacing him with Kevin Warsh.

Prudent investors should pay attention to President Trump’s pain point. As a member of The Arora Report you have been ahead of the curve. On April 10, we shared with you:

In The Arora Report analysis, the foregoing played a role, but the real reason for the tariff reversal was likely the rise in bond yields.

In The Arora Report analysis, yesterday bond yields were getting close to triggering a full blown financial crisis.

In The Arora Report analysis, the pause in reciprocal tariffs exposed President Trump’s pain point.
In the Arora Report analysis, prudent investors need to keep an eye on President Trump’s pain point – the pain point is long bond yields spiraling towards 5%.
There is a high probability that President Trump will act before the pain point is reached.
If President Trump decides to act, trade deals may cushion a potential drop in the stock market if Powell is fired.
In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should keep in mind there is a wide range of possible outcomes. These outcomes range from a rip roaring rally to the stock market breaking below recent lows shown on the fourth pane on the chart.
Due to the popularity of Tesla stock (TSLA) with retail investors, moves in TSLA stock impact stock market sentiment. TSLA stock is adding to the negative sentiment in the early trade on a report that TSLA may delay a new affordable Model Y for the U.S.
Adding to the negative sentiment this morning is a report that Huawei is getting ready to mass ship an AI chip to compete with Nvidia (NVDA). China is depending on Huawei to counter U.S. sanctions on Nvidia chips to China.
Data on leading indicators will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving. The consensus is -0.4%.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Any buying at this time should be considered tactical and not strategic. Consider using moderation for any buying.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5251 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5400, 5500, and 5622: support levels are 5210, 5020, and 4918.

DJIA futures are down 354 points.

Gold futures are at $3431, silver futures are at $33.08, and oil futures are at $62.26.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

AAPL, AMD, AMZN, AVGO, BA, BSX, BTCUSD, DJIA, DXY, FXY, GEV, GLD, GOLD, GOOG, GOOGL, HOG, INTC, MARKETS, MRVL, MU, NDX, NEM, NVDA, OIL, QQQ, SAP, SILVER, SLV, SMCI, SPX, SPY, T, TBF, TBT, TBX, TLT, TSLA, USO, VRT

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