By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report. 

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

LOOK AHEAD – OPTIONS EXPIRATION MAY BRING A CHANGE, AEROSPACE STOCKS ARE ON FIRE FROM TRUMP DEALS

May 16, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Hot Stocks

Please click here for a chart of aerospace and defense ETF (ITA).

Note the following:

• The chart shows the recent steep upward trendline of aerospace and defense stocks.
• The chart shows when ITA broke out.
• The chart shows RSI has been overbought and flat.  This indicates that the up move is very powerful and after a shallow dip, these stocks may go higher.
• ITA has outperformed S&P 500 by 16.68% year to date.  This shows the power of picking the right sectors.
• Aerospace and defense ETF ITA is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.  The top three holdings of ITA are GE Aerospace (GE), RTX Corporation (RTX), and Boeing (BA).  RTX and BA are in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.
• The trigger behind the big move in aerospace stocks are the large deals that President Trump has been striking to sell U.S. planes and weapons to Arab countries.
• As a member of The Arora Report, you were already in the know that the momo crowd was extremely aggressively buying call options.  Today, about $3T notional value of options will expire.  As the momo crowd extremely aggressively bought call options and the stock market rose, market makers were buying stocks to hedge.  Stock buying by market makers has, in part, been responsible for the steep rise in the stock market.
• Starting Monday, a new cycle will begin for options.  Expect more volatility depending upon how aggressively the momo crowd buys call options.  Depending upon how the market behaves, market makers may unwind some hedges.
• Prudent investors should pay attention that the put call ratio is very low at this point.  This indicates extreme bullishness.  This is one of the indicators in The Arora Report’s proprietary sentiment indicator.  The Arora Sentiment Indicator is extremely bullish.  As we have been sharing with you, extremely bullish sentiment is a contrary indicator, i.e. a sell signal.  We have also been sharing with you that sentiment is not a precise timing indicator.  This is one of the reasons that The Arora Report call yesterday was to take partial profits on tactical positions.  
• Right now, in the middle of all the bullishness, the momo crowd is not paying attention, but prudent investors should – there are reports that Japan may hold out for a better trade deal.  After all, if China can get everything China wanted without giving anything material in return, why cannot Japan get a better deal?  As a reference, the Trump administration has been touting Japan as a country willing to give the U.S. a great deal.  The Japanese government appears to be concerned about a backlash from the Japanese public if it gives the U.S. a great deal.
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Housing Starts

New housing market is weakening.

Housing starts came at 1.361M vs. 1.383M consensus.

Building permits came at 1.412M vs. 1.450M consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5945 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6017, 6131, and 6256: support levels are 5926, 5748, and 5622.

DJIA futures are up 97 points.

Gold futures are at $3182, silver futures are at $32.10, and oil futures are at $61.52.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding 19% – 29% in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of 0% – 2%, and short term hedges of 0%. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

PROFITS ON TACTICAL POSITIONS, DO NOT TRUST NEW DATA AND WALMART EARNINGS, TRUMP SCOLDS APPLE

May 15, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Tactical Positions Are Very Profitable

Tactical positions that were started near the April lows based on Arora buy signals are now very profitable.  It is now time to take partial profits.  Please see Trade Management Guidelines to learn how to appropriately take partial profits.

Do Not Trust New Good Economic Data

Please click here for a chart of Walmart stock (WMT).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of WMT stock is being used to illustrate the point.  Walmart is the largest retailer, and the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to Walmart earnings.
• The chart shows when Walmart reported earnings.
• The chart shows that WMT stock has recovered much of the April drop related to tariffs.
• The chart shows that WMT stock previously rose to the low band of the resistance zone and then backed off.
• RSI on the chart shows that WMT stock is close to being oversold.  RSI shows that after earnings, WMT stock could have bounced significantly.
• WMT is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio and long from $19.25. This represents a gain of 403% for long time members of The Arora Report.
• The chart shows that this morning WMT stock is pulling back after a bump up from earnings.
• Walmart reported mixed results, roughly in line with consensus and whisper numbers.  In The Arora Report analysis, here are the key points:
  • Investors should not trust Walmart numbers because much of the sales came from pre-tariff inventory.
  • Investors should pay attention to Walmart’s warning that tariffs may result in price increases. 
• Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data.  Retail sales came cooler than expected.  Here is the latest retail sales data:
  • Headline retail sales came at 0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.
  • Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.1% vs. 0.5% consensus.
• In The Arora Report analysis, investors should not trust this retail sales data because it is distorted from consumers buying ahead of tariffs.  
• The just released Producer Price Index (PPI) shows inflation at the producer level is cooler than expected.  Here are the details:
  • Headline PPI came at -0.5% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Core PPI came at -0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.
• The PPI drop is the largest since the Covid shock in 2020.  In The Arora Report analysis, investors should not trust this data because it is distorted due to tariff related issues.  
• Initial Jobless Claims came at 229K vs. 226K consensus.  This indicates the jobs picture remains strong.
• President Trump said that India has offered a deal with no tariffs on U.S. goods.
• While the deal offer from India would be a positive for President Trump’s tariff efforts, it does not change Trump’s desire to bring manufacturing to the U.S.  President Trump scolded Apple (AAPL) for expanding production in India.  President Trump wants Apple products produced in the U.S.
• Powell is speaking as of this writing.  Here are the key points:
  • The Fed is committed to the 2% inflation target.
  • The U.S. may be entering a period of frequent supply shocks.
  • The Fed could reconsider controversial language around the employment mandate.
  • The Fed could reconsider average inflation targeting.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and AAPL.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Of note is yesterday the momo crowd was in panic mode and selling gold.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The U.S. is apparently close to striking a deal with Iran.  Such a deal will increase oil supply.  

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling as whales take profits by selling their bitcoins to overexcited retail investors.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5887 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926, 6017, and 6131: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500

DJIA futures are down 146 points.

Gold futures are at $3186, silver futures are at $32.36, and oil futures are at $61.235.

INSTITUTIONS CHASING STOCK MARKET RALLY AFTER GETTING CAUGHT OFF GUARD

May 14, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Market Positioning

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows the stock market has moved above the breakout line.
• For stock market bulls, zone 1 (resistance) shown on the chart is the magnet.
• Momo gurus are claiming that they know the stock market is going to go above zone 1 to new highs in a matter of days.
• Bears are throwing in the towel as they never expected President Trump to give China everything it wanted with very little in return other than talk.  In The Arora Report analysis, China has a great track record of appeasing American presidents with talk without following through with actions.    
• As a member of The Arora Report, you were ahead of the curve and experienced as perfect as signals get in real life.  In January and February when The Arora Report calls were to take partial profits and raise hedges, including hedges to protect individual strategic positions with very large unrealized gains, institutions were aggressively buying.  Moreover, institutions did not have the protection of gold, short positions, and international positions like members of The Arora Report who follow the Corporate Bundle.
• When the stock market fell in early April, as shown on the chart, many institutions were holding very low cash.  Institutions were over invested.
• The chart shows when The Arora Report was giving buy signals in early April near the lows.   At that time, institutions were selling because they were very over invested.  After the selling, institutions became under invested, which they thought was prudent at the time due to the trade war with China.
• As the stock market started moving up from the lows, institutions dismissed the rise.  Institutions had good reason to dismiss the rise because they were looking at President Trump’s campaign promise of 60% tariffs on China.   Based on comments from the Trump administration, institutions were convinced that the biggest concession President Trump would give to China would be to reduce tariffs to 60% – 80% from 145%.  Under this economic scenario, it made no sense to buy stocks at market lows.
• Institutions were caught off guard when it was revealed this Monday that tariffs on China would be only 10% after fentanyl tariffs are removed.  Institutions did sophisticated analysis of many scenarios but never dreamed the U.S. would give China everything China wanted in exchange for very little.
• Normally, after the big rally on Monday, there would have been some give back yesterday.  However, instead of giveback, the market rallied further, and institutions were chasing the market since they are under invested.
• Most institutions do not behave like the momo crowd.  Expect institutions to aggressively buy the dips unless the data changes.
• The momo crowd is back to their normal behavior.  The momo crowd is extremely aggressively buying speculative stocks and call options on indexes and their favorite stocks.
• As the market rises, the tentative Arora Report plan is to start taking profits by scaling out of tactical positions that were started near the market lows in April.
• To consistently beat the market, investors need to look ahead.  A vast majority of investors do not look ahead.  They suffer from recency bias.  A vast majority of investors invest based on what has happened over the last ten days.  
• In The Arora Report analysis, as we look ahead, the data shows that peak trade tariff uncertainty is behind us but peak economic uncertainty is not.  We previously shared with you, in The Arora Report analysis, there is a 60% probability of stagflation.  
• Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales, and initial jobless claims will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET and may be market moving.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

Money is flowing out of gold as investors no longer feel the need for protection.  The momo crowd is panicking and selling gold.  As usual, members of The Arora Report do not need to panic and sell gold as members were ahead of the curve.  The Arora Report gave a signal to take partial profits on gold near the highs.  

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 4.287M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 2.4M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5912 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926, 6017, and 6131: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.

DJIA futures are up 55 points.

Gold futures are at $3187, silver futures are at $32.38, and oil futures are at $63.05.

ARORA REPORT LOWERS PROBABILITY OF STAGFLATION AND RECESSION, COOLER CPI

May 13, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Lower Probability Of Stagflation And Recession

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows the stock market did not break above the breakout line on yesterday’s rally.
• The chart shows volume yesterday was not heavy, indicating that there is not high conviction in the jump.
• Stock market bulls are expecting the market to quickly reach zone 1 (resistance) shown on the chart.
• Stock market bears are scratching their heads trying to figure out why President Trump gave China everything it wanted, leaving the U.S with almost nothing in exchange.  Bulls respond by saying President Trump has managed to get China to agree to open up to American goods by removing non-monetary barriers.
• In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors need to remember that China has been promising to open up ever since President Nixon.  China has always talked a good game about opening up, but in reality, it has always maintained restrictions.  
• The chart shows the stock market remains below the breakout line after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came cooler than expected.  Here are the details:
  • Headline CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Core CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
• In The Arora Report analysis the probabilities of stagflation and recession have decreased.  The reason is the great deal China secured on tariffs.  On the campaign trail, President Trump had promised 60% tariffs on Chinese goods.  Once fentanyl tariffs are removed tariffs on Chinese goods will be only 10%.  As a reference, tariffs on the U.S.’s best ally, the U.K., are also 10%.  The U.S. runs a trade surplus with the U.K. and a massive trade deficit with China.      
  • According to The Arora Report analysis, the probability of stagflation is now 60%, down from 70% prior.
  • According to The Arora Report analysis, the probability of a recession is now 35%, down from 40% prior.  
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the deal with the E.U. will be “a bit slower,” but he is optimistic about trade deals with Asian countries.
• Ignore the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) this morning – the drop in DJIA is due to UnitedHealth (UNH) suspending guidance.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

The crypto exchange company Coinbase (COIN) is being added to the S&P 500.  COIN will replace Discover Financial Services (DFS) on May 19.  COIN is up about 11% as of this writing in the premarket.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5868 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926, 6017, and 6131: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.

DJIA futures are down 174 points.

Gold futures are at $3248, silver futures are at $32.93, and oil futures are at $62.78.

DEPLOY CASH AND REDUCE HEDGES, PEAK TARIFF UNCERTAINTY IS OVER BUT PEAK ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY IS NOT

May 12, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Deploy Cash And Reduce Hedges

Please see the Protection Band And What To Do Now section below.  The change is triggered by the prospect of China tariffs being reduced to 10%.

Great Deal For China

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows a big rally in the stock market in the early trade on the news of the China deal.
• The chart shows the stock market has broken through zone 2, which was previously a resistance zone.  Zone 2 is now a support zone.
• The chart shows the stock market jumped to the breakout line.  The stock market is likely to experience some resistance at the breakout line, but this resistance is very weak.
• The chart shows the stock market has crossed back above the 200 day moving average.  This will bring aggressive buying from the legion of investors who believe the myth of the 200 day moving average.
• RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is barely overbought and has room to run to the upside.
• Here are the key points about the China deal:
  • Total tariffs will be reduced from 145% to 30%.
  • Prudent investors should note that as late as last week, President Trump was floating the idea of reducing China tariffs to 80%.
  • Prudent investors should also note that on the campaign trail, President Trump promised 60% tariffs on Chinese goods.
  • 30% tariffs are made up for 10% reciprocal tariffs and 20% fentanyl tariffs.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that 20% fentanyl tariffs could be removed if China acts.
  • The deal is for 90 days.  Parties will negotiate further.
  • The summary of the foregoing is that China tariffs are likely to be only 10% compared to President Trump’s campaign trail promise of 60%.
• In The Arora Report analysis, with only 10% tariffs on China, President Trump will not meet any of his following stated goals:
  • Eliminating the trade deficit
  • Raising trillions of dollars in tariffs to offset income tax
  • Bringing significant manufacturing to the U.S. 
• Further, in The Arora Report analysis, President Trump making a U-turn is not good for the U.S. in the very long term.  However, in the short term, this is good for the U.S. economy and stock market.  
• Peak tariff uncertainty is over, but peak economic uncertainty is not.  
• Prudent investors should note that yields are rising again with 10 year Treasuries reaching 4.46%. 
• In The Arora Report analysis, if this deal holds, it is the greatest deal China could have possibly expected.  From an investment perspective, there will be merit in due course to buy Chinese stocks.  Chinese stocks are very inexpensive.  Chinese stocks trade at a trailing PE of 14.34 and forward PE of 13.05.  As a reference, U.S. stocks trade at a trailing PE of 24.17 and forward PE of 20.74.  You will see signals in due course.  Most of the signals will be in ZYX Emerging.
• Adding to the positive sentiment is that nuclear armed neighbors India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire.  The stock market in India is up 3.7%.  There is merit to starting or adding to India positions on dips.  There is India focused fund FFXDF in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.  There is also a trade around position on FFXDF.  India ETFs EPI, GLIN, and SMIN are in ZYX Emerging.  For those wanting next level information, a podcast titled “Strategic Opportunity In India: Growth, Demographics, And AI” is in post-production and will be available in Arora Ambassador Club.
• Pharmaceutical stocks such as Eli Lilly (LLY), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Merck (MRK), Pfizer (PFE), and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) are lower on President Trump’s plan to lower drug prices.  There is a short position in NVO in ZYX Short.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and  Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

After the India Pakistan ceasefire and China trade deal, there is less need for safe havens such as gold.  

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Due to China tariffs being dropped to a very low level, global growth is likely to be higher than anticipated as late as Friday.  Higher growth means more demand for oil.  

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying but there is some disappointment that whales did not take advantage of low liquidity over the weekend to run bitcoin over $108K.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5853 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926, 6017, and 6131: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.

DJIA futures are up 1033 points.

Gold futures are at $3239, silver futures are at $32.78, and oil futures are at $63.22.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.