WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

June 21, 2025

By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

RECORD $6 TRILLION QUAD WITCHING BALANCES ISRAEL IRAN WAR IN STOCK MARKET, SWITZERLAND CUTS RATES

Jun 20, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Record Quad Witching

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows the stock market has pulled back from the bottom band of zone 1 (resistance). Zone 1 has been the magnet for traders.
RSI on the chart shows the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. RSI on the chart shows internal momentum in the stock market is slowing.
Quadruple witching is today. A record $6T notional value of derivatives will expire. In quadruple witching, stock index futures, futures options, stock options, and single stock futures expire. Quadruple witching often leads to volatility.
In The Arora Report analysis, quadruple witching has been exerting upward pressure on the stock market this week. It may continue to put upward pressure on the stock market today.
In The Arora Report analysis, the upward pressure from quadruple witching is one of the reasons the stock market has been so resilient in the face of the Israel Iran war.
Europe and Iran are set to meet today for high level talks, the first since the war started. Europe will make an offer to Tehran that will require Iran ceasing uranium enrichment. There is aggressive stock buying on an unconfirmed rumor that Iran is willing to accept restrictions on uranium enrichment.
President Trump has indicated that the U.S. will decide to join the war or not “within two weeks.”
An important piece of information for prudent investors comes from satellite images that the media is not highlighting. Satellite images show that the Israeli attacks on the nuclear facility at Natanz has primarily damaged transformers and the switchyard. This damage can be quickly repaired. At The Arora Report, we are not military experts. Based on our sources, the main reason President Trump may have backed off from bombing Fordow is the satellite images showing the Israeli attacks caused minimal damage to Natanz. Natanz is not fortified like Fordow.
Investors need to be very careful about reports in the media. These reports are likely full of deception.
Leading indicators will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Switzerland

On previously flat inflation pushing into the negative, the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 bps, dropping to 0%. The decrease in inflation appears to be due to falling prices in oil (before the Israel Iran war started) and tourism.

England

The Bank of England (BOE) announced the interest rate will not change, remaining at 4.25%, as expected.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and positive Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6051 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131, 6256, and 6500: support levels are 6017, 5926, and 5748.

DJIA futures are up 12 points.

Gold futures are at $3361, silver futures are at $36.03, and oil futures are at $73.27.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

MOMO BUYS ON FED HOPIUM BUT PRUDENT INVESTORS WAITING FOR DOT PLOT, TRUMP GAMBIT INCREASES RISK

Jun 18, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Prudent Investors Waiting For Dot Plot

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows the stock market has consolidated below zone 1 (resistance).
RSI on the chart shows the stock market is neither overbought nor oversold.
The momo crowd continues to aggressively buy stocks on their conviction that the stock market is about to break above zone 1.
In President Trump’s latest gambit, he demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected President Trump’s demand saying “imposed war” is not acceptable, nor is “peace” and that there will be “serious irreparable consequences” if the U.S. strikes Iran.
- From President Trump’s posts, it appears that he is moving towards a U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
In The Arora Report analysis, if the U.S. strikes Iran and the Iranian regime does not surrender and does not collapse, the Iranian regime could block the Strait of Hormuz, strike U.S. bases, and take the entire region down with them. Such a scenario increases significant risk for investors. For this reason, it is important for prudent investors to pay attention to the Arora Protection Band.
In the Arora Report analysis, if historical precedence holds true, the momo crowd will initially aggressively buy stocks if the U.S. strikes Fordow with bunker busting bombs to destroy uranium enrichment facilities.
At The Arora Report, we are not military experts but here is an important piece of information from military experts that the media is not talking about. Prudent investors should be aware that the most potent American bomb GBU-57 is designed to penetrate 200 feet into the mountain and then explode – the uranium enrichment facility at Fordow is believed to be 300 feet below the mountain. Even if a GBU-57 bomb does not reach the facility, it may destroy access to the facility and associated infrastructure such as HVAC. There is speculation that Iranians designed the facility to survive this scenario. Prudent investors should note that it appears the probability of success is not 100%. There is increased risk to investors if the U.S. strikes and is not successful.
The Fed will announce its interest rate decision today at 2pm ET, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm ET.
- The consensus is the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged.
- The momo crowd’s historical pattern is to buy stocks before the Fed decision on hopium that the Fed will cut interest rates. Today is shaping up to be no different – the momo crowd is buying stocks ahead of the Fed
- In contrast to the momo crowd, prudent investors are waiting for the dot plot. The dot plot will give clues for future rate cuts. The last dot plot from March implied two rate cuts in 2025.
Initial jobless claims came at 245K vs. 253K consensus. This removes the fear of a quick drop in the employment picture.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Housing Starts

The data shows that the housing market is weakening. Here are the details:

Housing starts came at 1.256M vs. 1.356M consensus.
Building permits came at 1.393M vs. 1.411M consensus.

The foregoing data is in accordance with the conference call from Lennar (LEN) earnings. Lennar is a major home builder. Upon release of Lennar earnings, the momo crowd aggressively bought LEN stock, running it up to $114.21. Smart money sold the rally on lower guidance. LEN stock fell and closed at $104.61.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a draw of 10.133M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 0.6M barrels. This data is bullish.

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6046 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131, 6256, and 6500: support levels are 6017, 5926, and 5748.

DJIA futures are up 35 points.

Gold futures are at $3411, silver futures are at $37.14, and oil futures are at $73.63.

SELLING ON ‘BETTER THAN CEASEFIRE,’ FED AND OPTION EXPIRATION AHEAD

Jun 17, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Better Than Ceasefire

Please click here for a chart of oil futures (CL_F).

Note the following:

The media is full of deception about the Israel Iran war that is propagated by the governments and those with special interests.
The best way for investors to get to the reality of the situation is to watch the chart of oil futures.
The chart shows yesterday morning oil futures started falling on hopes of a quick ceasefire. This is what led to the stock market rallying yesterday.
The chart shows three points when hopes for a quick ceasefire were progressively dashed.
The chart shows the corresponding rise in oil.
This morning, the rise in oil is leading to selling in the stock market.
There is a lot of speculation about President Trump’s plan for “better than ceasefire.” Speculation ranges from the U.S. planning to drop bunker buster bombs on Iran’s nuclear installations to the U.S. creating fear in Iran. From our sources, the U.S. has moved B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. B-2 bombers can be used to drop bunker busting bombs.
This morning, at a time when selling is taking place in stocks on heightened concern about the Israel Iran war, in The Arora Report analysis, the highest probability scenario is Iran capitulation on its ambitions to build a nuclear weapon. If this highest probability scenario comes true, investors should look ahead to the following:
- Israeli stocks will go up. There is a new buy signal on Israel ETF EIS in ZYX Allocation.
- Defense stocks will go down.
- Oil stocks will go down
- Oil will go down.
- Such a development will be negative for gold but expect central banks to buy the dip.
- Such a development will be negative for silver. The likely Arora call will be to start a trade around position in silver.
- Such a development will be negative for the Chinese stock market.
- Such a development will be negative for Russia.
- Such a development will be negative for U.S. Treasuries. For those wanting next level information, listen to the new podcast titled “GET AHEAD OF THE CURVE – CRACKS APPEAR IN AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM” in Arora Ambassador Club.
- Such a development will be positive for the Taiwanese stock market.
- Such a development will be positive for the U.S. stock market.
- Such a development will be positive for the Indian stock market.
- Such a development will be positive for European stock markets.
- Such a development will be positive for the U.S. dollar.
Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. Retail sales came lower than expected. Here is the latest retail sales data.
- Headline retail sales came at -0.9% vs. -0.6% consensus.
- Retail sales ex-auto came at -0.3% vs. 0.1% consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, the retail sales data is now showing in hard data what soft data has been showing for months – the U.S. consumer is weakening.
Options expiration is this Friday. In The Arora Report, options expiration was putting upward pressure on the stock market yesterday.
The FOMC meeting starts today. The Fed will announce its rate decision at 2pm ET tomorrow followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm ET.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the highest probability scenario is the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Japan

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left interest rates changed. In The Arora Report analysis, the most important news from Japan is that BOJ will slow the pace of bond tapering due to new risks.

U.S. stock investors should always pay attention to BOJ due to the carry trade. In the carry trade, investors borrow in Japan and invest in the U.S stock market.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), andTesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6058 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131, 6256, and 6500 : support levels are 6017, 5926, and 5748.

DJIA futures are down 222 points.

Gold futures are at $3411, silver futures are at $37.05, and oil futures are at $71.69.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

AGGRESSIVE STOCK BUYING ON OIL DROP AND ISRAEL GAINING CONTROL OF TEHRAN SKIES

Jun 16, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Aggressive Stock Buying

Please click here for a chart of oil futures (CL_F).

Note the following:

The chart shows this morning oil has been progressively dropping.
The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand. The chart shows the VUD indicator is mostly orange, indicating net supply of oil.
Going into the weekend, the positioning was one sided in favor of oil going up. To understand one sided positioning, think of a boat where everyone is on one side. As long as the waters are calm, the boat continues to float, but when a storm hits, the boat can capsize. Positioning is an important Wall Street mechanic. Understanding positioning can give you an edge. To gain the edge, listen to the podcast titled “MARKET MECHANICS: POSITIONING.”
This morning, several factors are working against the price of oil.
- Positioning was one sided coming into this morning.
- Israel has not attacked Iran’s oil export facilities. Israel is attacking oil facilities that cater to Iran’s domestic consumption.
- Iran has indicated that it does not want to block the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passageway through which about 25% of the world’s oil is transported.
- The U.S. has built up a massive naval presence in the area.
- President Trump has indicated that the U.S. may intervene.
There is aggressive buying in stocks for the following reasons:
- Oil is dropping.
- A statement from President Trump that he is open to intervention.
- Israel has gained total control of the skies over Iran’s capital Tehran.
- Israel’s prime minister Netanyahu is saying “we are on a path to victory.”
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

Gold is seeing selling in sympathy with oil.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6071 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131, 6256, and 6500: support levels are 6017, 5926, and 5748.

DJIA futures are up 242 points.

Gold futures are at $3435, silver futures are at $36.51, and oil futures are at $71.91.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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