WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

 

CORE PCE HOTTER, MORE FUEL FOR HOT AI TRADE, TRUMP SAYS ‘A VERY BIG ONE’ IS AHEAD

Jun 27, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

More Fuel Coming For Hot AI Trade

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows SPY has hit a new all time high breaking out above zone 1.  Zone 1 was previously resistance and will become support if the breakout is sustained.
  • Prudent investors will be watching the volume and the velocity of the move today.
  • RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is slightly overbought and still has room to run.
  • There is more fuel for the hot AI trade.  There is a report that President Trump is planning executive orders to boost AI in the U.S.   President Trump previously ordered the production of an AI Action Plan to make “America the world capital in artificial intelligence.”  The plan is due by July 23, which the White House may declare AI Action Day.
  • Adding to the extreme bullishness in the stock market is a statement from President Trump on trade deals, “Everybody wants to make a deal and have a part of it… we just signed with China yesterday. We are having some great deals. We have one coming up, maybe with India. A very big one. Where we’re going to open up India. In the China deal, we are starting to open up China.”
    • The U.S. and China have finalized details of a trade deal framework.  China has agreed to loosen rare earth mineral export restrictions in return for the U.S. removing countermeasures.
    • Indian trade negotiators arrived in the U.S. today to continue talks.
    • Commerce Secretary Lutnick indicated trade agreements are close with ten major trading partners.
    • The end of the 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs is approaching.  Adding to bullishness is an expectation in the stock market that it is a soft deadline and negotiations are underway in good faith.
  • PCE is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.  Inflation came slightly hotter than expected.  Here are the details:
    • Headline PCE came at 0.1% vs. 0.1% consensus.
    • Core PCE came at 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus.
  • The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.  For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to personal income and personal spending.  Personal spending and personal income dropped.   Here are the details:
    • Personal spending came at -0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.
    • Personal income came at -0.4% vs. 0.4% consensus.
  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving, especially after the drop in personal income and spending.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6210 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6256, 6500, and 6700 : support levels are 6131, 6017, and 5926

DJIA futures are up 132 points.

Gold futures are at $3282, silver futures are at $36.18, and oil futures are at $65.58.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding 22% – 32% in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of 0% – 2%, and short term hedges of 0% – 2%. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

 

NEW NVIDIA HIGH SHOW MORE ROOM FOR AI TRADE, BUYING ON TRUMP MOVE TO MAKE POWELL MISERABLE

Jun 26, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Room In AI Trade

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
  • The chart shows NVDA stock broke out above zone 1.  Zone 1 was previously resistance and is now support.
  • The chart shows on April 9 The Arora Report gave a signal to buy NVDA stock naming NVDA one of the top stocks to buy on the dip.  On April 9, NVDA stock traded in the range of $97.53 – $115.10.
  • The Arora Report was one of the first to identify the AI revolution in 2022.  As a member of The Arora Report, you were ahead of the curve.  We shared with you in 2022 that a fortune is to be made all the way to 2030, although it will not be in a straight line.  At times, it will be treacherous.  You will want expert guidance.  Subsequently, when many Wall Street gurus called AI a fad, The Arora Report responded with a crystal clear call that AI was real.
  • Being ahead of the curve, members of The Arora Report are long NVDA stock from $12.55.  Yesterday, NVDA stock made a new high.  NVDA is trading at $156.80 as of this writing in the premarket.  At its low after Liberation Day, NVDA stock fell to $86.62.  The consensus in the market at that time was the AI trade was over.  However, The Arora Report remained steady fast in its conviction that the AI trade had a long way to go.  There were signals initiating several trade around positions, including one on NVDA as shown on the chart. Trade around positions is a technique billionaires and hedge funds use to dramatically increase returns while reducing risks.  NVDA stock hitting a new high shows The Arora Report’s call on AI was spot on.
  • NVDA stock breaking to a new high shows that The Arora Report call that money is to be made in AI all the way to 2030 is proving spot on.
  • The sentiment on Wall Street is already extremely bullish.  You would think it is difficult to add more bullishness to extreme bullishness, but that is exactly what President Trump has accomplished.  President Trump’s actions aim to take away the Federal Reserve’s independence sooner than expected.  Here are the key points:
    • Powell’s term expires in 11 months.
    • Traditionally, the president announces the pick for the new Fed chair three to four months ahead of time.
    • President Trump is planning to announce his pick as early as this summer or early fall.
    • The belief is that by announcing his pick so early, President Trump will make Powell miserable enough that Powell will do whatever President Trump wants.
    • Momo gurus are cheering that President Trump will take away the Fed’s independence and the new Fed chair will be President Trump’s puppet.
    • A puppet Fed chair will dramatically cut interest rates, running up the stock market much higher in the short to medium term.  
  • As the momo crowd celebrates, prudent investors should make money from the short to medium term moves in the stock market but be very concerned for the long term if the Fed loses its independence.  
  • Foreign investors are already very concerned.
  • The dollar hit three year lows on concerns about a puppet Fed chair.  If most of your wealth is in dollars, you need to take steps to protect your wealth.  The steps include investing in foreign markets, foreign currencies, gold, and other commodities.   The easiest way to accomplish the foregoing is to follow the Accelerating Wealth Generation section in the Trade Management Guidelines.  
  • Initial jobless claims came at 236K vs. 247K consensus. This data indicates that for the time being the jobs picture is strong.  It is worth a reminder that the jobs picture drops off very quickly when the economy slows down.  Initial jobless claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in the adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories, which has a great track record going back 18 years.
  • Durable orders data is strong.
    • Durable orders came in at 16.4% vs 6.6% consensus.
    • Durable orders ex-transport came at 0.5% vs 0.1% consensus.
    • In The Arora Report analysis, durable orders is a volatile series, and investors should not assign significant meaning to the strength here.
  • Q1 GDP-third estimate came at -0.5% vs. -0.2% consensus.  In The Arora Report analysis, this should concern prudent investors as it indicates a slowing economy.
  • Q1 GDP deflator-third estimate came at 3.8% vs. 3.7% consensus.
  • PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.   In The Arora Report analysis, PCE will likely come inline with expectations.  The consensus for headline PCE is 0.1% and 0.1% for core PCE.
  • Personal income and personal spending data will also be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
See also  40% GAIN ON AN ENERGY SOLUTIONS COMPANY AND 20% ON AN AI SOFTWARE COMPANY IN A MATTER OF HOURS

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6165 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6256, 6500, and 6700 : support levels are 6131, 6017, and 5926.

DJIA futures are up 102 points.

Gold futures are at $3333, silver futures are at $36.22, and oil futures are at $65.16.

 

POWELL ADDS FUEL TO AI TECH RALLY, BAFFLING MOVE BY TRUMP AND HIS OWN PENTAGON REFUTES OBLITERATION

Jun 25, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Tech Rally

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows tech stocks are hitting a new high.
  • The chart shows QQQ is breaking out above zone 1.  Zone 1 was previously resistance.  If the breakout sustains, zone 1 will become support.
  • RSI on the chart shows tech stocks are neither overbought nor oversold, indicating tech stocks have room to run.
  • Based on The Arora Report’s analysis of positioning, if the stock market moves up decisively from here, stock market bears will have no choice but to capitulate and buy stocks in a panic.
  • Under intense pressure from President Trump and Republicans, Fed Chair Powell is showing the first signs of capitulating.  Contrary to expectations, in his congressional testimony, Powell said he is open to a rate cut.
  • Powell’s statement is adding fuel to the AI, tech-driven stock market rally.
  • As a member of The Arora Report, you were ahead of the curve regarding damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities.  On June 18, we wrote in the Morning Capsule:

At The Arora Report, we are not military experts but here is an important piece of information from military experts that the media is not talking about.  Prudent investors should be aware that the most potent American bomb GBU-57 is designed to penetrate 200 feet into the mountain and then explode – the uranium enrichment facility at Fordow is believed to be 300 feet below the mountain.   Even if a GBU-57 bomb does not reach the facility, it may destroy access to the facility and associated infrastructure such as HVAC.  There is speculation that Iranians designed the facility to survive this scenario. Prudent investors should note that it appears the probability of success is not 100%.  There is increased risk to investors if the U.S. strikes and is not successful.

  • After President Trump claimed that the bombing obliterated Iran’s nuclear facilities, The Arora Report was skeptical.  We wrote:

Prudent investors should also pay attention to the fact that it appears 400kg of Iran’s enriched uranium is missing.  This is enough to make ten nuclear bombs.  It is likely that Iran moved this uranium to a secure secret location before the attacks.

  • Now in a preliminary report, the Pentagon’s own Defense Intelligence Agency is countering President Trump’s assertion and is saying that the U.S. attack only set Iran’s nuclear program back by a few months.  In his response, President Trump is in full battle mode, battling the Pentagon.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, U.S. intelligence officials are likely correct that the damage to Iran’s nuclear program is causing only a temporary delay in Iran’s nuclear ambitions.  Even though the stock market is celebrating the U.S. bombing Iran, prudent investors need to look ahead – in the future, Iran is likely to move towards a nuclear bomb in secret.   
  • Prudent investors should also note that for Iran to achieve its ambition, Iran needs to engage in deception and agree with President Trump that their nuclear facilities are obliterated so that the U.S. does not attack again.  
  • Prudent investors should also pay attention to a baffling move by President Trump in allowing Iran to export its oil to China.  Iran generates most of its revenue from oil exports to China.  U.S. sanctions on Iran have been directly benefiting China as they allow China to buy Iranian oil at a deep discount, something smaller countries cannot do.  The reason is smaller countries are afraid of the U.S., while China is not.  President Trump’s baffling move is going to help China and Iran.  
  • From the NATO summit, allies have agreed to commit 5% of GDP to defense.  A minimum of 3.5% GDP by 2035 will go towards core defense requirements, and 1.5% GDP will go towards protecting critical infrastructure, preparing civilians, and defending networks and industrial bases.  This is great news for The Arora Report calls to buy European aerospace and defense ETF (EUAD) and European defense contractor BAE Systems (BAESY).  The plan is to start trade around positions in ITA and RTX on significant dips.  A trade around position is a technique used by billionaires and hedge funds that can dramatically increase returns and reduce risk.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
See also  WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a draw of 4.277M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 0.600M barrels.

The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing aggressive buying as speculative sentiment builds.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6155 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6256, 6500, and 6700 : support levels are 6131, 6017, and 5926.

DJIA futures are down 9 points.

Gold futures are at $3330, silver futures are at $35.69, and oil futures are at $64.94.

 

DEPLOY CASH AND REDUCE HEDGES – ARORA’S HIGHEST PROBABILITY SCENARIO COMES TRUE – NATO CONTENTION

Jun 24, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Deploy Cash And Reduce Hedges

The Arora Report’s highest probability scenario has come true in the Israel Iran war. This scenario was given in advance as the highest probability scenario on June 13 morning, just after Israel’s first attack. As has been the case for the last 18 years, members of The Arora Report were once again ahead of the curve and had clarity at a time when there was a lot of confusion among most investors.  Clarity and getting ahead of the curve are two pillars to maximizing the wealth you generate over your lifetime.

A ceasefire has been reached between Iran and Israel.  In The Arora Report analysis, immediately following a ceasefire, small infractions are historically common in war and should not concern investors.  It is time to deploy cash and reduce hedges, preferably on pullbacks.  Please see the section “Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now” below.

Spot On Call

Please click here for a chart of oil futures (CL_F). The chart of oil is important because oil is the most sensitive indicator of events in the Middle East.

Note the following:

  • The chart shows a slight rise in oil prices when the news broke on Qatar closing its airspace.
  • The chart shows oil started dropping even before the news broke that Iran had informed Qatar and the U.S in advance of the missile attack.
  • The chart shows the continued dramatic fall in oil prices.
  • The chart shows another leg lower in the evening when speculation started to build that a ceasefire was in the works.  The speculation turned out to be correct, leading to another dip.
  • Here is the most important point for prudent investors: yesterday, oil prices led stock prices.  Investors should always be looking out for leading indicators.  
  • Investors should always be looking for what smart money is doing.  Yesterday, smart money was selling oil on the news of Iran’s attack on the U.S. military base in Qatar while the momo crowd was panicking and selling stocks on the news.  Smart money bought stocks on the dip caused by momo crowd selling.  It is important to remember the momo crowd is driven by momo gurus, news headlines, price momentum, social media, and sentiment.  In contrast, smart money is driven by deep knowledge and 360 degree analysis.  
  • Getting ahead has its advantages.  For example, in anticipation of this scenario, The Arora Report recently gave signals to take partial profits on defense stock RTX, gold ETF GLD, and gold miner NEM in advance of the ceasefire.  This morning, gold and defense stocks are falling on the news of a ceasefire.
  • President Trump is heading to a NATO summit.  The summit is likely to be contentious due to differing opinions on defense spending between NATO members.  The results of the NATO summit may provide more opportunities.
  • This morning, the momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks.
  • Fed Chair Powell will testify at 10am ET today before the House Financial Services Committee.  In The Arora Report analysis, Powell will come under intense pressure to agree to cut rates.  
  • Prudent investors should note that cracks are appearing in the FOMC’s united front under pressure from President Trump.  The Fed’s Bowman and Waller have come out in favor of rate cuts.  You guessed it right – both Bowman and Waller are Republicans and were appointed by President Trump. Both may be trying to compete for the job of the next Fed Chair – they need to be in President Trump’s good graces.  
  • In The Arora Report analysis, as politics enter the Fed in a big way, risks will rise for long term investors.  Long term investors will need to be vigilant and be ready to not only generate wealth but protect their wealth.  The easiest way is to stay tuned to the Morning Capsules and the Arora Protection Band. 
  • Consumer confidence will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

See also  RECORD $6 TRILLION QUAD WITCHING BALANCES ISRAEL IRAN WAR IN STOCK MARKET, SWITZERLAND CUTS RATES

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying along with buying in speculative stocks.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6119 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131, 6256, and 6500: support levels are 6017, 5926, and 5748.

DJIA futures are up 307 points.

Gold futures are at $3328, silver futures are at $35.79, and oil futures are at $66.37.

 

MOMO CROWD BUYS STOCKS BELIEVING IRAN IS A PAPER TIGER, RUSSIA TALKS NUCLEAR WARHEADS FOR IRAN

Jun 23, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Momo Crowd Buys Shallow Dip

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows the stock market reaction to the U.S. bombing Iran is muted.
  • RSI on the chart shows the stock market is neither overbought nor oversold and can go in either direction.
  • On Sunday evening when stock futures opened, they opened lower about 1%.  The momo crowd immediately bounced to buy the shallow dip.  The momo crowd has continued to buy stocks as of this writing.
  • There is no smart money buying as of this writing in the premarket.  Presumably, the reason is smart money wants to know how Iran will respond.  In contrast, the momo crowd has already concluded that Iran is a paper tiger.
  • Iran has many options.  It will be total arrogance for anyone to believe they know how Iran is going to react.  Prudent investors should start from Arora’s Second Law of Investing and Trading, which states “Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets,” and Arora’s Third Law, which states “Making investing and trading decision based on probabilities is the only realistic and profitable approach.”
  • As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve.  The highest probability scenario continues to be what we shared with you on June 17:

This morning, at a time when selling is taking place in stocks on heightened concern about the Israel Iran war, in The Arora Report analysis, the highest probability scenario is Iran capitulation on its ambitions to build a nuclear weapon.  If this highest probability scenario comes true, investors should look ahead to the following:

  • Israeli stocks will go up.  There is a new buy signal on Israel ETF EIS in ZYX Allocation.

  • Defense stocks will go down.

  • Oil stocks will go down

  • Oil will go down.

  • Such a development will be negative for gold but expect central banks to buy the dip.

  • Such a development will be negative for silver.  The likely Arora call will be to start a trade around position in silver.

  • Such a development will be negative for the Chinese stock market.

  • Such a development will be negative for Russia.

  • Such a development will be negative for U.S. Treasuries.  For those wanting next level information, listen to the new podcast titled “GET AHEAD OF THE CURVE – CRACKS APPEAR IN AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM” in Arora Ambassador Club.

  • Such a development will be positive for the Taiwanese stock market.

  • Such a development will be positive for the U.S. stock market.

  • Such a development will be positive for the Indian stock market.

  • Such a development will be positive for European stock markets.

  • Such a development will be positive for the U.S. dollar.

  • There is no value to be added by regurgitating everything that is in mainstream media. Prudent investors should pay attention to a statement coming from Russia that the media has ignored.  Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev said, “A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.”   In The Arora Report analysis, the only four countries that are even plausible are Russia, North Korea, China, and Pakistan.  
  • Prudent investors should also pay attention to the fact that it appears 400kg of Iran’s enriched uranium is missing.  This is enough to make ten nuclear bombs.  It is likely that Iran moved this uranium to a secure secret location before the attacks.  
  • Investors should think in different time frames.  Even if Iran does not respond vigorously, in the short term, Iran may secretly build a nuclear weapon over the next year, unless there is a regime change.  
  • Prudent investors should also note that Iran’s parliament has passed a resolution calling for the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.  About 25% of the world’s oil is transported through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • For investors who want next level information, there is a new podcast in Arora Ambassador Club titled “GREAT OPPORTUNITIES AND PERILS FOR INVESTORS FROM U.S. BOMBING IRAN.”
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling on Iran risk.  The price action in bitcoin goes against the narrative of bitcoin promoters that bitcoin is a hedge against geopolitics.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6023 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131, 6256, and 6500: support levels are 5926, 5748, and 5622.

DJIA futures are up 30 points.

Gold futures are at $3383, silver futures are at $35.98, and oil futures are at $74.39.

 

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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