By Nigam Arora
Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’
AGGRESSIVE BUYING IN GOLD ON TARIFFS AND CHINA, TECH STOCK BUYING CONTINUES ON TRUMP’S PAPER TIGER MOVE
Aug 8, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Gold Tariffs
Please click here for a chart of gold futures (GC_F)
Note the following:
- The chart shows aggressive buying in gold.
- Aggressive buying in gold has been triggered by several factors:
- Concern about tariffs on one kilo gold bars. Expectations have been for no tariffs on gold.
- Switzerland is a major gold refining hub. The President of Switzerland returned from visiting the U.S. without a change in the 39% tariffs. It is not clear how tariffs will impact gold being refined in Switzerland.
- People’s Bank of China (PBOC) buying gold for the ninth straight month in a row. China’s gold reserves now stand at 73.96M fine troy ounces compared to 73.90M at the end of June.
- India may follow by buying more gold.
- President Trump has been threatening to impose more tariffs on India for being a member of BRICS as BRICS attempt to do more trade that is not denominated in dollars. Interestingly, President Trump has not issued any such threats against China.
- A serious geopolitical blunder by the U.S. to push India away from a close alliance with the U.S. and India responding by moving closer to China and Russia.
- The up move in gold has been dampened by the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine. Without this, the move up in gold would have been even sharper.
- In The Arora Report analysis, there is incongruency between stocks being at an all time high and gold running up. Here is the key question for prudent investors: “How will this incongruency be resolved?”
- Gold ETF (GLD) is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio. Silver ETF (SLV) and gold miner Newmont (NEM) are in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. NEM has broken out and is staging a very strong up move.
- The Treasury auction yesterday was weak – this should concern prudent investors. Initially, the stock market dropped on the weak auction, but the momo crowd aggressively bought the dip. Here are the details:
- $25B 30-year Treasury bond auction
- High yield: 4.813% (When-Issued: 4.792%)
- Bid-to-cover: 2.27
- Indirect bid: 59.5%
- Very aggressive buying in tech stocks continued yesterday and is still continuing in the premarket. This move was triggered by President Trump’s 100% tariffs on semiconductors turning out to be a paper tiger and Apple (AAPL) getting an exemption from the tariffs.
- Sentiment in the stock market continues to be extremely positive.
- Vicious short squeezes are taking place in a large number of stocks, driving stocks higher.
- In The Arora Report analysis, a majority of the buying in stocks is coming from retail investors. Institutions have turned cautious.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
England
Bank of England (BOE) has cut interest rates as expected on slowing employment. Prudent investors should watch if President Trump uses BOE as an example to urge the Fed to cut interest rates.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6378 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500 and 6700: support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.
DJIA futures are up 78 points.
Gold futures are at $3482, silver futures are at $38.52, and oil futures are at $64.13.
Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
STOCKS JUMP ON 100% SEMICONDUCTOR TARIFFS – APPLE, NVIDIA, AMD, AND MICRON BENEFIT, BUYING ON TALKS WITH RUSSIA
Aug 7, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Paper Tiger Tariffs
Please click here for a chart of Apple stock (AAPL).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of AAPL stock is being used to illustrate the point.
- The chart shows the run up in AAPL stock yesterday on the news of Apple investing an additional $100B in domestic manufacturing, bringing the total commitment to $600B.
- The chart shows the move up yesterday was on heavier volume, indicating conviction.
- The chart shows the additional jump up in the after market when President Trump indicated an exemption for Apple from the semiconductor tariffs.
- The chart shows AAPL stock has crossed into zone 1 (resistance).
- RSI on the chart shows that AAPL stock is not overbought despite the up moves.
- Prior to yesterday, there were three concerns about Apple:
- Apple needing to pay 100% semiconductor tariffs.
- Apple needing to pay additional 50% tariffs on iPhones as most iPhones coming to the U.S. are manufactured in India.
- Declining iPhone sales in China.
- President Trump has imposed 100% tariffs on semiconductors. However, the tariffs are a paper tiger. President Trump said, “But the good news for companies like Apple is if you’re building in the United States or have committed to build, without question, committed to build in the United States, there will be no charge.” Apple, Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Micron (MU) are among the stocks that are benefiting.
- Intel (INTC) was expected to benefit, but INTC stock is falling on President Trump’s demand that Intel’s CEO resigns. The reason is that in the past, Intel’s CEO made investments in China.
- Yesterday, we shared with you:
In a potential long term strategic blunder, President Trump appears to be pushing India away from the U.S. and close to China.
- President Trump has imposed an additional 50% tariff on India for importing oil from Russia. However, President Trump is not threatening similar tariffs on China even though China imports more Russian oil than India.
- Indian Prime Minister Modi has decided to stand up to President Trump even in the face of 50% tariffs. India is the third country to decide to stand up to President Trump – China was the first. However, with China, President Trump chickened out when China turned the tables due to its stranglehold on rare earth minerals.
- Now, India, the world’s largest democracy, and Brazil, the world’s fourth largest democracy, are willing to stand up to President Trump even at a significant cost.
- Yesterday, the Treasury auction was soft. Here are the details:
- $42B 10-year Treasury note auction
- High yield: 4.255% (4.304%)
- Bid-to-cover: 2.35 (2.57)
- Indirect bid: 64.2% (69.7%)
- Direct bid: 19.6% (17.9%)
- The stock market was beginning to pullback on the soft auction when the news broke about Russia leading to renewed buying.
- President Trump and Russian President Putin are set to meet in the coming days. This is bringing in buying on hope of an end to the Ukraine-Russia war.
- Initial jobless claims came at 226K vs. 220K consensus.
- Wall Street is drooling at the likely Trump executive order to allow private assets in 401K plans. President Trump’s order will be a big bonanza for Wall Street. The reverse Robinhood trade continues to work well. In The Arora Report analysis, the reverse Robinhood trade is likely to pick up more steam. In the short term, this is great for investors but not good in the long term as lower income families are increasingly paying a steeper price to make the rich richer.
- In The Arora Report analysis, a vast majority of buying that ran up the stock market yesterday and in the premarket today is coming from retail investors. Institutional investors have turned cautious.
- Of special interest this morning is a big drop in Eli Lilly stock (LLY) as disappointing obesity pill data overshadows excellent earnings.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
Prudent investors should note that gold should have seen selling on the news of talks with Russia. Instead, gold is seeing buying. The buying is mostly from the momo crowd buying on momentum and being oblivious to the Russia news.
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6410 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500 and 6700: support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.
DJIA futures are up 250 points.
Gold futures are at $3456, silver futures are at $38.56, and oil futures are at $64.52.
TRUMP PLAN FOR NUCLEAR REACTOR ON THE MOON, NEW DATA RAISES SPECTER OF STAGFLATION, AMD FAILS WHISPER TEST
Aug 6, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Extreme Positive Sentiment Amid Stagflation Specter
Please click here for a chart of BWX Technologies stock (BWXT).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of BWXT is being used to illustrate the point.
- The chart shows a gap up in BWXT stock. BWX Technologies (BWXT) is one of the 12 nuclear stocks on The Arora Report list available in ZYX Buy. The gap up in BWXT stock was triggered by strong earnings and a potential Trump plan to put a nuclear reactor on the moon by 2030.
- The chart shows heavy volume on the gap up. This indicates conviction.
- RSI on the chart shows that BWXT stock is overbought. Overbought stocks are susceptible to a pullback.
- BWXT was spun off from Babcock and Wilcox. BWXT supplies nuclear reactors to the U.S. Navy. If President Trump follows through and spends money building a nuclear reactor on the moon, BWXT will likely be the main beneficiary.
- Bullishness from the potential plan to build a reactor on the moon has brought in extremely aggressive buying in other nuclear stocks such as Oklo (OKLO), NuScale Power (SMR), Centrus Energy (LEU), and NANO Nuclear Energy (NNE).
- In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should note that the potential plan to build a nuclear reactor on the moon is adding to the already extremely positive sentiment in the stock market.
- From a market sentiment perspective, AMD is a very important stock. AMD is also a favorite of the momo crowd. AMD reported very strong earnings. However, AMD failed to meet the whisper test. AMD earnings and projections are below the whisper numbers. Whisper numbers are the numbers analysts privately share with their best clients. Whisper numbers are often different from consensus numbers published by the same analysts for public consumption. Analysts typically provide whisper numbers only to their best clients, and not the public. The stock has fallen about 6% as of this writing in the premarket.
- In order to stop China from replacing the U.S. as the world’s superpower, over the last decade, the U.S. has been working very hard to align with India. India is the world’s largest democracy. In a potential long term strategic blunder, President Trump appears to be pushing India away from the U.S. and close to China. India buys about one third of Russian oil exports, and China buys about one half of Russian oil exports. President Trump appears to be close to a deal with China with no concern about China importing Russian oil. However, President Trump is threatening to impose very large tariffs on India, in addition to the 25% tariff already announced, for importing Russian oil. India is responding by saying Prime Minister Modi will likely visit China and attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit. The summit will be held August 31 to September 1. Modi has not visited China since 2019. In The Arora Report analysis, if the U.S. strategic blunder comes to pass, this will have a long term impact for investors – creating new perils and opportunities. For those wanting next level information, listen to the podcast titled “DANGER OF A STRATEGIC AMERICAN BLUNDER ARISES“ in Arora Ambassador Club.
- A test is ahead for the markets when the U.S. Treasury auctions $42B of 10-year notes. If the auction is good, expect buying to come into the stock market. On the other hand, if the auction is poor, at least in theory, the stock market should fall.
- As we shared with you yesterday, the ISM Services release was market moving. Here are the details:
- ISM Services data came at 50.1% vs. 51.5% consensus. A number under 50 indicates economic contraction.
- The prices subindex came at 69.9.
- The employment subindex came at 46.4.
- In The Arora Report analysis, ISM Services data has reawakened the specter of stagflation.
- Among important earnings, McDonald’s (MCD) and Shopify (SHOP) reported earnings better than consensus and whisper numbers. Disney (DIS), Uber (UBER), and Amgen (AMGN) reported earnings less than whisper numbers. Also of special note are earnings from AI server assembler Super Micro Computer (SMCI). SMCI stock is a favorite of the momo crowd. Going into earnings, the momo crowd had run up SMCI on hopium. After trading as high as $59.40 yesterday, SMCI stock is trading at $47.54 as of this writing in the premarket. Super Micro Computer earnings show that the momo crowd’s hopium was unjustified.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet (GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
API crude inventories came at a draw of 4.2M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 1.8M barrels. This data is bearish, but buying is coming into oil on potential Trump steps against Russia.
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6339 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500 and 6700 : support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.
DJIA futures are up 164 points.
Gold futures are at $3419, silver futures are at $37.73, and oil futures are at $66.21.
SENTIMENT EXTREMELY POSITIVE ON RATE CUT HOPES AND PALANTIR EXCEEDING THE HIGH BAR, AMD EARNINGS AHEAD
Aug 5, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Extremely Positive Sentiment
Please click here for a chart of Advanced Micro Devices stock (AMD).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of AMD is being used to illustrate the point.
- The chart shows the previous run up in AMD stock, pushed higher by momo crowd buying.
- The chart shows the previous jump up in AMD stock on gamma squeeze. For next level information on gamma squeezes, listen to the podcast in Arora Ambassador Club titled “MARKET MECHANICS: IMPACT OF DEALERS’ GAMMA POSITION CHANGE ON THE STOCK MARKET.”
- The chart shows the subsequent drop in AMD stock, pulling back to the bottom band of zone 2 (support) on the tariff lows.
- The chart shows AMD stock has rapidly climbed back to zone 1 (resistance).
- Prudent investors should note the steep angle of the recent trendline. Often, such steep trendlines are seen when there is a substantial new development. In the case of AMD, there is no such development. The rise in AMD stock is due to hopium about the future and buying by those who missed Nvidia (NVDA).
- Advanced Micro Devices will report earnings after the regular session close today.
- In yesterday’s Morning Capsule, we shared with you Palantir’s (PLTR) earnings would impact the sentiment in the entire stock market. Palantir earnings exceeded the high bar. PLTR stock is up nearly 7% as of this writing in the premarket. Here are the details:
- Palantir revenues rose to over $1B for the first time.
- Palantir revenues grew 48% vs. 38% consensus.
- Operating income came at $269M.
- Palantir raised full year guidance to $4.14B – $4.15B in revenue, up from $3.89B – $3.9B.
- Palantir earnings have added to the extremely positive sentiment. AMD earnings have the potential to add to the extremely positive sentiment or dampen it.
- Nuclear tensions between the U.S. and Russia have escalated. During President Trump’s first term, he withdrew the U.S. from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty with Russia. At the time, Russia said if the U.S. did not deploy missiles, then Russia would not deploy missiles. Now, President Trump has ordered the positioning of nuclear submarines, prompting Russia to remove its self-imposed restrictions. Russia has said it will no longer abide by the treaty and will deploy nuclear missiles.
- Yesterday, the stock market rally was driven mainly by retail investors. Super excited retail investors are getting more excited about the prospect of a rate cut. In contrast to retail investors’ super excitement, smart money is preparing for a potential pullback.
- ISM Services data will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
- President Trump continues to push geopolitical objectives with tariffs.
- President Trump is pushing India into a corner due to India importing Russian oil. About one third of Russian oil is exported to India. Even though about one half of Russian oil is exported to China, President Trump, at least publicly, is not pushing China on the issue because China has turned the tables on President Trump with rare earth minerals.
- Switzerland is paying for its neutrality. Switzerland received very high tariffs of 39%. The Swiss president is planning to fly to Washington to get a better deal.
- Previously, Brazil received 50% tariffs in President Trump’s attempt to help Bolsonaro who is on trial for an attempted coup. The Supreme Court of Brazil has ordered Bolsonaro to be placed under house arrest. Investors should watch how President Trump responds.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), and Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is lightly *** stocks in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing mild selling.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6362 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500 and 6700: support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.
DJIA futures are down 21 points.
Gold futures are at $3421, silver futures are at $37.54, and oil futures are at $65.44.
EARNINGS FROM THE MOST EXPENSIVE AI STOCK WILL IMPACT STOCK MARKET SENTIMENT, BUYING ON RATE CUT HOPES
Aug 4, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Most Expensive AI Stock
Please click here for a chart of Palantir Technologies stock (PLTR).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of PLTR stock is being used to illustrate the point.
- The chart shows the rise in PLTR stock. PLTR stock is a component of the S&P 500. PLTR is also in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. PLTR is long from $20.15. This represents a return of 681%.
- The chart shows PLTR stock was in the Arora buy zone earlier this year before the big rise. This gave newer members an opportunity to buy PLTR stock.
- RSI on the chart shows divergence. This indicates PLTR stock may pull back.
- Palantir reports earnings today after the regular session close. PLTR earnings will impact the sentiment in the entire stock market for the following reasons:
- PLTR is the momo crowd’s favorite AI software stock.
- PLTR stock is the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 by P/S.
- Palantir consolidated its many contracts with the military into a single $10B contract with a term of up to 10 years. PLTR has become a very important defense contractor.
- Whisper numbers are running higher than consensus numbers. Whisper numbers are the numbers analysts privately share with their best clients. Whisper numbers are often different from consensus numbers published by the same analysts for public consumption. Analysts typically provide whisper numbers only to their best clients, and not the public.
- There is buying in the stock market on hopes of a rate cut in September.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the probability of a rate cut in September is 70%.
- Yields are falling in anticipation of a rate cut.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
Oil is being sold as OPEC+ plans to increase production.
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6300 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500 and 6700 : support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.
DJIA futures are up 209 points.
Gold futures are at $3415, silver futures are at $37.25, and oil futures are at $65.75.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.
