WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

August 16, 2025

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

‘DATA NO LONGER MATTERS’ INVESTORS PREVAIL IN THE STOCK MARKET – GOVERNMENT SPIKING THE STOCK MARKET

Aug 15, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Government Spiking Stock Market

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows the drop in the stock market after the release of Producer Price Index (PPI) yesterday. The PPI data was significantly hotter than expected. Please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule for details.
The chart shows aggressive buying on hotter inflation data by investors who believe data no longer matters.
The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand. The chart shows the VUD has turned green, indicating net demand for stocks.
We have been sharing with you that the narrative of “data no longer matters” is taking hold among the momo crowd. The chart shows “data no longer matters” investors prevailed. The thinking is that irrespective of the data, President Trump will succeed in getting the rate cuts he wants.
In The Arora Report analysis, there is some merit to the thinking of the “data no longer matters” crowd. With reckless government spending, heavy government borrowing, and artificially lower interest rates, the U.S. government can succeed in spiking the stock market in the short term. In the long term, these actions are likely to be very negative. However, the momo crowd does not think about the long term.
Retail investors are super excited and are continuing their stock buying binge. The margin debt of retail investors has now exceeded $1T. History tells us that when margin debt rises sharply, prudent investors need to be careful.
In contrast to retail investors’ exuberance about the stock market, institutional investors are cautious.
The Buffett effect is helping the stock market. Warren Buffet bought health insurer United Health (UNH), home builders Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton DHI, and steel maker Nucor (NUE). Buffett also sold a large amount of Apple stock (AAPL). Investors are focused on what Buffett bought and ignoring what he sold.
Dow Jones Industrial Average is being helped by about a 10% move in UNH
In important news, the U.S. is contemplating taking a stake in Intel. The stock is rising on the news. INTC is in the portfolio that surrounds the Core Model Portfolio in ZYX Buy.
Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. Retail sales came inline with expectations. Here is the latest retail sales data.
- Headline retail sales came at 0.5% vs. 0.5% consensus.
- Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
President Trump and President Putin are meeting in Alaska today. The momo guru narrative is that the stock market will go up about 2000 DJIA points after the meeting. In The Arora Report analysis, President Trump has the leverage to succeed. Will President Putin be receptive? Investors should start with Arora Second Law of Investing and Trading, which states, “Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets.”
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

China

China is the second largest economy in the world. Therefore prudent investors pay attention to economic data from China. The latest data from China is showing a weakening economy. Here are the details:

Industrial production came at 5.7% year-over-year vs. 6.0% consensus.
Retail sales came at 3.7% year-over-year vs. 4.6% consensus.
The unemployment rate came at 5.2% vs. 5.1% consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in AAPL, Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and negative Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6498 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500, 6700, and 7000: support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are up 275 points.

Gold futures are at $3388, silver futures are at $37.89, and oil futures are at $63.41.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

PPI GUT PUNCH TO ‘DATA DOES NOT MATTER’ INVESTORS IN THE STOCK MARKET, BESSENT WANTS 150 BPS RATE CUTS

Aug 14, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Hot Inflation Data

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows the stock market hit a new high yesterday.
The chart shows the stock market drop after the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI).
The chart shows the stock market is comfortably above zone 1 (support).
RSI on the chart shows the stock market is overbought.
Treasury Secretary Bessent says interest rates should be 150 – 175 bps lower. That would bring the effective Fed funds rate to about 2.6%. Interest rates have never been that low over the last 70 years when inflation was at current levels of about 3% or higher.
All eyes are on Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Powell will be speaking. Powell’s speech is scheduled for August 22 at 10am ET. Here is the question for prudent investors: Will Powell push back against Bessent’s call for 150 – 175 bps cuts. Expect Powell’s speech to be market moving.
The just released PPI data shows inflation at the producer level much hotter than expected. Here are the details:
- Headline PPI came at 0.9% vs. 0.2% consensus.
- Core PPI came at 0.9% vs. 0.2% consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, PPI data is a gut punch to momo crowd investors who have decided that data does not matter.
Further in The Arora Report analysis, the increase in PPI is due to tariffs and will likely filter to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the coming months. PPI data runs counter to what President Trump has been promoting and the prevailing wisdom in the stock market that tariffs do not cause price increases. On the other hand, there is merit to the argument that price increases from tariffs are a one time event.
Expect momo gurus to not give up easily and come up with a narrative that concludes PPI does not matter.
The momo crowd will follow momo gurus. Here is the real question: What will smart money do?
Initial jobless claims came at 224K vs. 228K.
President Trump is scheduled to speak at 1pm ET. Trump’s speech may be market moving.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Europe

Money continues to flow into stocks in Europe.

Eurozone Q2 GDP came at 0.1% quarter-over-quarter vs. 0.1% consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

Opposing forces are at work in gold. On one hand, gold benefits from inflation. On the other hand, high PPI means the Fed should be reluctant to cut interest rates and that is not good for gold.

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling. Hot PPI data is a negative for bitcoin.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6463 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500 and 6700 : support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are down 160 points.

Gold futures are at $3399, silver futures are at $38.28, and oil futures are at $62.99.

50 BPS RATE CUT FEVER GRIPS THE STOCK MARKET – SMALL CAPS ROCKET, FOREIGN MONEY FLOWING INTO CHINA

Aug 13, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Rate Cut Fever

Please click here for a chart of small cap ETF (IWM).

Note the following:

The chart shows a strong move up, about 3%, in small cap stocks yesterday.
The chart shows in the early trade small cap stocks are moving even higher.
The chart shows in spite of the large move yesterday, small caps are still in zone 2 (resistance).
The chart shows small caps are still below the prior high marked by the upper band of zone 1(resistance) even though S&P 500 and Nasdaq have moved to new highs.
Money is flowing aggressively in IWM for two reasons:
- The belief is building that small caps will catch up.
- Small caps are interest rate sensitive.
A 50 bps interest rate cut fever has all of a sudden gripped the stock market after the release of CPI data.
- Some momo gurus are even calling for a 100 bps cut. The prevailing wisdom has shifted to the data no longer being important and President Trump will get what he wants from the Fed. There is merit to this thinking as independent thinkers driven by data are rapidly vanishing.
On August 4, we wrote:

In The Arora Report analysis, the probability of a rate cut in September is 70%.

In The Arora Report, the probability of a rate cut in September has now risen to 85%. In The Arora Report analysis, there are still some independent thinkers at the Fed who are not going to appease President Trump.
In The Arora Report analysis, the amount of the rate cut in September will come down to the data between now and the Fed meeting.
In The Arora Report analysis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) data that will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET has gained more importance. The stock market’s reaction to PPI will confirm if the latest prevailing momo crowd wisdom of “data does not matter” is transient or longer term.
On the 50 bps rate cut fever, in addition to small caps and tech stocks, money is also flowing into interest rate sensitive sectors such as housing and banks. The housing ETF of choice is ITB, and the banking ETF of choice is KBE. Bank ETF KBE is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio. Home builder KBH is in ZYX Buy in the portfolio that surrounds the Core Model Portfolio.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Money Flowing Into China

As China gains the upper hand over the U.S., foreign money is flowing into China. Overnight, stocks in Hong Kong were up 2.6%.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil is being driven by speculation about the results of the Trump Putin meeting on Friday.

API crude inventories came at a build of 1.5M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw 0.8M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6482 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500 and 6700 : support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are up 123 points.

Gold futures are at $3413, silver futures are at $38.66, and oil futures are at $62.85.

NEW WARNING FOR PRUDENT INVESTORS – STOCK MARKET MAY ENTER A NEW ERA, CHINA SHOWS UPPER HAND OVER U.S.

Aug 12, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

New Warning

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows the very shallow dip in S&P 500 was previously bought.
The chart shows the stock market is comfortably above zone 1 (support).
The chart shows aggressive buying on release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
CPI data came inline with expectations. Here are the details:
- Headline CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.
- Core CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, core inflation is rising. Normally, on this data, the stock market would have fallen. However, today, there is aggressive buying on core inflation rising. The reason is two fold:
- The stock market is convinced that under pressure from President Trump, interest rates are about to be divorced from inflation and all other data. The stock market believes President Trump will succeed at pushing interest rates lower irrespective of the data.
- CPI data did not come worse than expectations.
If the initial reaction of aggressively buying stocks on rising core inflation is sustained, in The Arora Report analysis, today will mark the start of a new age in which data will become irrelevant in the short term. If this comes to pass, it will be very dangerous for the long term and will likely drive the stock market higher in the short term.
After the U.S. allowed export of H20 chips from Nvidia (NVDA) and MI308 chips from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), the U.S. tilt to help China continues.
- President Trump is open to Nvidia selling a scaled back version of Blackwell chips to China. Blackwell is the most powerful AI chip from Nvidia.
- The deadline for China tariffs has been extended to November 10.
You have been ahead of the curve as we have been sharing with you, about three months ago China turned the table on the U.S. and gained the upper hand. China has been getting everything it wants from the U.S. while giving very little in return.
- In another sign of China getting the upper hand over the U.S., the Chinese government is now urging Chinese companies to not use Nvidia’s H20 chips.
If China continues to have the upper hand, The Arora Report response will be to make a strategic shift in the Model Portfolios.
President Trump and President Putin are scheduled to meet on Friday. President Trump is keeping expectations low. For this reason, if the talks are successful, it could give a boost to the stock market. In theory, a successful Ukraine deal should be negative for gold, oil, and bitcoin.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6438 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500 and 6700: support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are up 176 points.

Gold futures are at $3397, silver futures are at $37.85, and oil futures are at $63.45.

EXTRAORDINARY NVIDIA AND AMD DEAL TO HELP CHINA MAY NECESSITATE PORTFOLIO SHIFT, INFLATION DATA AHEAD

Aug 11, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

AI Chip Deal

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
The chart shows the run up in NVDA stock since the lows in April.
The chart shows the Arora buy signal and signal to take profits on hedges in April. NVDA is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. NVDA stock is long from $12.55, representing a gain of 1352%.
The chart shows RSI divergence. In plain English, this means that the internal momentum of NVDA stock is slowing. This is a negative.
In an extraordinary deal, the White House is essentially partnering with Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to help China with AI.
- The U.S. will receive 15% of sales of AI chips to China.
- In return, Nvidia will get an export license for H20 AI chips, and AMD will get an export license for MI308 AI chips.
- Exports of H20 and MI308 chips were previously stopped in April. The purpose was to slow down AI development in China.
In The Arora Report analysis, this is a short term tactical win but of concern in the long term. China is the U.S.’s main strategic rival. China intends to replace the U.S. as the world’s superpower. In this rivalry, the AI capabilities of each country will play a major role:
- Shipping H20 and MI308 chips to China will enable China to progress faster.
- In theory, these chips are meant for inference, and not for training large language AI models. However, in The Arora Report analysis, China can use these chips to train large language models, albeit at a slower pace.
- President Trump campaigned that he was the right person to stop China from replacing the U.S. as the world’s superpower. In The Arora Report analysis, this is one of several moves over the last couple of months that are short term tactical wins for the U.S but raise concerns about the long term.
- The argument in favor of the deal is that if the U.S. were not to supply these chips to China, China will simply accelerate its own development. The counter argument is China is already moving at breakneck speed to increase its capabilities in AI at the fastest possible rate.
- It is important for investors to get ahead of the curve and prepare in advance for scenarios that are developing.
- There are significant long term implications of this move for investors. If there are more similar moves, The Arora Report will be making significant changes to long term investments. Stay tuned.
Inflation data is ahead this week:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET. The consensus for headline CPI is 0.2% and 0.3% for core CPI.
- Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released Thursday at 8:30am ET. The consensus for headline PPI is 0.2% and 0.2% for core PPI.
In The Arora Report analysis, over the last few months, the cost of tariffs has not shown up in inflation data because suppliers abroad and U.S. businesses have been absorbing the cost. Sooner or later, some of this cost will show up in the inflation data. Will it be this week? Prudent investors should note that the stock market is not prepared for tariff costs showing up in inflation data.
In The Arora Report analysis, at this time of extreme positive sentiment in the stock market, the market is still discounting a tariff rate of about only 10%. The reality is that so far, tariffs are averaging about 19%. Although oblivious now, sooner or later, the stock market will wake up to this new reality.
Investors should keep in mind that September is not very far away. September tends to be a weak month. Stock market crashes tend to happen in October.
Prudent investors should pay special attention to the Arora Protection Band.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

Gold is being sold on the prospect that the U.S. may not impose tariffs on gold.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil is moving on speculation about the Trump Putin meeting that is set to take place on August 15 in Alaska. Russia is a major oil producer. The speculation is that President Trump will agree to removing sanctions on Russian oil.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6424 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500 and 6700 : support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are up 123 points.

Gold futures are at $3408, silver futures are at $37.83, and oil futures are at $64.26.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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